Shaping Housing Options in the Community: How to maintain affordability and accessibility to walkable urban places Tompkins County Housing Summit: A Place for All of Us, Housing by Choice or by Chance? November 30, 2016 Ithaca, NY Twitter: @christophercoes
Who is Smart Growth America? Smart Growth America is a national non-profit organization dedicated to researching, advocating for, and leading coalitions to bring smart growth practices to more communities nationwide. • SGA Leadership Institute • Local Leaders Council
Who is LOCUS? Only organization working directly on behalf of developers and investors of walkable urban, transit-oriented and smart growth development.
“ See the USA in your Chevrolet ” Affordable Housing Strategy: Drive until you qualify
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What’s been happening? The demographic and economic fundamentals have shifted
Economic growth 20 th century vs. 21 st century • Manufacturing economy vs. Knowledge economy • Chasing smokestacks vs. Chasing talent
Millennials They follow lifestyle, not jobs. Millennials choose where to live before finding a job.
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Preferences: Housing Preferences: Housing 47% 47% 12% 12% 40% 40%
THE CHANGING MARKET And they don’t seem to want cars
Boomers are a different kind of Senior Citizen: Adulthood II
Preferences: Transportation • Baby boomers are walking more and driving less… – Health Impacts – Traffic Concerns – Rural Seniors Hold licenses longer – Higher rates of automobile accidents
Market Trends For Senior Adults • A scientific poll of people age 45 and older by AARP in 2010 found that having the following amenities close by were also particularly important to older adults: bus stop (50%), grocery store (47%), park (42%) and pharmacy/drug store (42%) • Based on a recent RCLCO’s national survey of boomer preferences for amenities, 83% ranked walking, 67% nearby shopping, and 51% bicycling as top priorities . In addition, one notable trends are towards development of mix- aged housing projects and age-restricted housing projects that are closely integrated into an intergenerational neighborhood. • Employment proximity is also becoming increasingly important, as the number of workers 75 or older has risen by 77 percent in the past two decades according to AARP’s Public Policy Institute.
We’ve got the wrong housing stock for the 21 st century 18
Smaller homes-more people Larger homes-fewer people Source : Adapted from American Housing Survey 2011 by Arthur C. Nelson, University of Arizona.
“ About 10 percent of Americans would like to live in mixed-use small towns, but don't.” -- Robert Steuteville 20
Gentrification: Most Loved or Most Hated Term in Real Estate Increased Construction Two Reasons for Costs(@30%)…smaller Gentrification, space which results from Pent Up Demand for Walkable Urban Increased Land Values (@70%)
Understanding the Economics of WalkUPS in the 30 Top Metros
Ranking Walkable Urbanism in America’s Largest Metros
Form & METROPOLITAN LAND USE OPTIONS: Function of REGIONALLY SIGNIFICANT LOCAL SERVING Metropolitan America WALKABLE WALKUP: NEIGHBORHOOD URBAN Metro Area Acreage: 1% Metro Area Acreage: 3-7% BEDROOM COMMUNITY EDGE CITY DRIVABLE Metro Area Acreage: 80-85% Metro Area Acreage: 5-7% SUB-URBAN
Key Findings • There are 558 WalkUPs , or regionally significant, walkable urban places, in the 30 largest metropolitan areas in the United States. • High, Moderate, Tentative & Low • Six High-Ranked Metros: • Metro Washington, DC • Metro New York City • Metro Boston • Metro San Francisco • Metro Chicago • Metro Seattle
Key Findings • Walkable urban office space in the 30 largest metros commands a 74 percent rent-per-square-foot premium over rents in drivable suburban areas. And, these price premiums continue to grow . • Walkable urban development is not limited to the revitalization of center cities; it is also the urbanization of suburbs
Unintended Consequence of WalkUPs PLATINUM • Without intervention, increasing walkable urbanism leads to GOLD decreasing social equity SILVER • Planning affordable housing to combat the natural effects of COPPER WalkUP development ECONOMIC SOCIAL EQUITY PERFORMANCE RATING
America’s Current (failing) Affordable Housing Policy
“DRIVE TILL YOU QUALIFY” Photo Courtesy of the New Yorker
Housing Costs – Tompkins County 30 Housing and Transportation Index, CNT
Housing and Transportation Costs Tompkins County 31 Housing and Transportation Index, CNT
What is Really Affordable? % of income Affordability Housing and Transportation Costs 56% Housing Costs 31% Transportation Costs 25% 32
According to Forbes Magazine, the 2015 Most Affordable Cities (based on housing and transportation) include: Birmingham, AL Knoxville, TN Buffalo, NY Oklahoma City, OK Cincinnati, OH Memphis, TN St. Louis, MO Dayton, OH Indianapolis, IN Columbus, OH and Detroit, MI (tie) What do these cities have in common?
Baby Boomers Reality Check — 40% of older Americans have housing problems mostly cost burden — 30% of household income. Source: Older Americans 2012 In the 2013 Retirement Confidence Survey conducted by the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI), workers aged 55 and older said the following about their retirement savings: • 60% have less than $100,000 in retirement savings • 43% have saved less than $25,000 • 36% have saved less than $10,000
Strategies for Addressing the Attainable Housing
Photo courtesy of Jeff Speck, NEA
Typical Impediments to mixed-use, mixed-income • Federal financing guidelines • Parking requirements • Project approval processes • Zoning and NIMBY opposition
Zoning & NIMBYs as… Public Enemy #1 • Economist: Land-shackled Economies (April 4 th , 2015) • Knowledge economy drives up land values in select places, esp. walkable urban • Zoning & NIMBYs result in a “shadow tax” of 50% in SF & 20% in DC and Boston (Paris=450%!) • U.S. GDP reduced 13.5% or $2 T in 2009 by land use constraints…$10,000/capita
People-centric high density Savannah, GA Savannah, GA Capitol Hill Capitol Hill Washington, DC Washington, DC Top left and right Top left and right Bethesda, MD Bethesda, MD Photos by Steve Davis Photos by Steve Davis
W. Lafayette, Ind. Bentonville, Ark. Spartanburg, SC
Examples of Mix-use, Mixed-income Tuckahoe, NY
Examples of Mix-use, Mixed Income Development Charleston, SC
Attainable Housing Strategies Short-term Place-based Strategy (LOCUS) Long-term • Support Standard tax credit and • Focus credits and vouchers on walkable vouchers urban places (LOCUS tax reform) • • Support Complete Streets Public/Private Value Capture (ABQ Civic Trust) • Choice Communities/Redevelop • “Alternative” transportation: shift of Public Housing (HRI in NO) household spending from cars to housing/savings (US transportation bill & • Zoning Reform – Overlay Zoning, local tax increases) Inclusionary Zoning, Easy Living • Employers to TOD locations Building Standards, (LOCUS/Cushman study) • Create more walkable urban places in to • Ancillary rental units in for-sale decrease land costs (overlay zoning & housing (like AirB&B), Employer marginalize NIMBYism) Assisted Housing
Thank You! More information, please visit: locusdevelopers.org smartgrowthamerica.org Christopher Coes Vice President, Real Estate Policy and External Affairs, Smart Growth America Director, LOCUS: Responsible Real Estate Developers and Investors Email: ccoes@locusdevelopers.org Twitter: @christophercoes
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