Pacific Fishery Management Council Setting Catch Limits: Assessment, Peer Review,Targets, and Thresholds Steve Ralston NOAA Fisheries SWFSC, Santa Cruz, CA Steve.Ralston@noaa.gov Lingcod ( Ophiodon elongatus ) Courtesy Ray Troll
Pacific Fishery Management Council Four Fishery Management Plans • Groundfish ‐ rockfish, roundfish, flatfish, elasmobranchs • Salmon ‐ Chinook (king), coho (silver) • Coastal pelagic species (CPS) ‐ sardine, mackerel, squid, anchovy • Highly migratory species (HMS) ‐ tunas, billfish, pelagic sharks
Pacific Fishery Management Council Detailed Look at Groundfish • Stock assessment process • Peer review • Targets and Thresholds (ACLs) ‐ Healthy stocks ‐ Rebuilding stocks • Assemblage targets Starry flounder Platichthys stellatus Courtesy Ray Troll
Pacific Fishery Management Council Regulating PFMC Groundfish Harvests Stock Pacific Fishery Management Council Assessment Team “Wall of Terms of A three meeting Science” Reference process, with a Socioeconomic, five month notice Stock and comment Harvest science Allocation, and review period, to be Assessment Policy Other Issues conducted once every 2 years Exploitable Allowable Promulgate Optimum Biomass Biological Regulations Yield (OY) Catch (ABC) OY < ABC
Pacific Fishery Management Council Contents of Groundfish Stock Assessment Title Page and Authors Executive Summary Introduction Assessment Data – landings, compositions, surveys, sample sizes, CVs, etc. Modeling History – response to previous STAR and GAP comments Model Description – fleets, likelihood components, constraints, etc. Model Selection – parsimony vs. realism, likelihood profiles, residuals Base run – all model parameters, time series, selectivities, S-R, etc. Reference Points Harvest Projections & Decision Tables Regional Management Considerations Research Needs Appendices – parameter and data files
Pacific Fishery Management Council Stock Assessment Terms of Reference Introduction STAR Goals and Objectives Shared Responsibilities NMFS Responsibilities STAT Responsibilities GMT Responsibilities GAP Responsibilities SSC Responsibilities Council Staff Responsibilities Stock Assessment Priorities Terms of Reference for STAR Panels and Their Meetings Suggested Template for STAR Panel Report Terms of Reference for Groundfish STAT Teams Terms of Reference for Stock Assessment Updates Appendix A: 2009-2010 Stock Assessment Review Calendar Appendix B: Outline for Groundfish Stock Assessment Documents Appendix C: Template for Executive Summary Prepared by STAT Teams Appendix D: Example of a Complete Stock Assessment Executive Summary
Pacific Fishery Management Council Full (Benchmark) Stock Assessments • Full stock assessments are reviewed at a STock Assessment Review (STAR) panel • STAR panels last a week, during which time two assessments are reviewed • STAR panels have four scientific reviewers ‐ SSC member chairs meeting ‐ At least one (usually two) CIE ‐ One person with assessment experience gained on the US west coast • Panels include representatives of the groundfish management (=plan) team and the advisory panel
Pacific Fishery Management Council Contents of Review Panel Report • Summary of the STAR Panel meeting: – Name and affiliation of panel members – List of analyses requested, rationale, and response – Description of base model and uncertainty • Comments on the technical merits or deficiencies • Explanation of areas of disagreement among Panel members and between STAR and STAT • Unresolved problems and major uncertainties • Issues raised by the GMT and/or GAP representatives • Research priorities
Pacific Fishery Management Council Decision Tables to Express Uncertainty A creative role for the STAR panel Canary rockfish ( Sebastes pinniger )
Updated Stock Assessments • To qualify as an update a model must first be reviewed and certified by a full STAR panel. • Only addition of newly acquired data (e.g., recent landings, survey results, compositions, etc.) is allowed • All aspects of model structure must remain unchanged (turn the crank) • Meeting is conducted by the SSC groundfish subcommittee and usually takes about 2 ‐ 3 hours • If a problem arises the assessment is referred to the “mop ‐ up” panel as a full assessment
Pacific Fishery Management Council SFA Biomass ‐ Based Control Rule (FMP Amendment 11) 0.20 Allowable Biological Catch / Optimum Yield 0.15 control rule for translating stock size into optimum yield ABC is based on Fmsy or its proxy 40-10 strategy 0.10 ABC 0.05 OY is reduced if spawning potential is below 40% of K 0.00 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Spawning Output as a % of Virgin Spawning
Pacific Fishery Management Council The Rockfish Problem 120% Canary Bocaccio 100% Cowcod Relative Depletion POP 80% Darkblotched Widow 60% Yelloweye 40% 20% 0% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year
Pacific Fishery Management Council Harvests Based on Science 4,000 Canary Stock assessments 3,500 rockfish 3,000 2,500 Metric Tons Catch 2,000 ABC 1,500 1,000 500 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Year
Pacific Fishery Management Council Rebuilding Depends on Rate of Fishing 100 F=0 Possible range Probability of rebuilding of harvest 75 70% rebuilding with no fishing 50% 1 generation 50 Tmin 25 Tmax 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Years bocaccio Sebastes paucispinis
Pacific Fishery Management Council What About Data ‐ Poor Stocks • Approximately 80 species in groundfish FMP and only some 30 have been fully assessed with dynamic models • Swept area biomass with F MSY = M approximation for a handful of rockfishes – a 25% precautionary reduction in ABC is applied • Many others have ABC set based on Restrepo et al. (historical landings) – a 50% precautionary reduction in ABC is applied • Species are aggregated into assemblages (e.g., slope rockfish north of lat. 40 ° 10’ N)
Pacific Fishery Management Council Salmon Management • Over 60 salmon stocks designated in the FMP with conservation objectives • Some stocks managed to meet ESA recovery goals and some for OY under Magnuson Act • PFMC management focuses on sustainable fisheries while meeting NMFS imposed recovery goals Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha Courtesy Ray Troll
Pacific Fishery Management Council OY (Escapement Goal) Typically Based on Spawner ‐ Recruit Analysis A happy fisherman
Pacific Fishery Management Council Salmon “Assessment” • Conducted intensively by Salmon Technical Team (STT) during March & April meetings • Compile preceding year’s data on catch and escapement • Abundance of “jacks” (age ‐ 2 males) used to predict coming run through the use of sibling regressions
Pacific Fishery Management Council Sibling Regression Prediction can be for the entire run or for the same cohort (brood year)
Pacific Fishery Management Council Weak ‐ Stock Management • Multiple stock escapement and exploitation rate goals are evaluated in the Chinook Fishery Regulation Analysis Model (FRAM) • Time ‐ area impacts are modeled based on the ocean distribution and abundance of stocks as determined from coded wire tag returns • Different season structures evaluated until all escapement & exploitation rates goals are met • Happens quickly at March and April meetings
Pacific Fishery Management Council Salmon Peer Review • Changes to methodology are reviewed and certified by the SSC salmon subcommittee in the Fall with Council approval in November • Each year stock ‐ specific data from regional stakeholders are assembled, examined, and certified by the STT • Run forecasts are presented to the SSC for review in March • Occasional independent peer review on a specific issue (CIE review of KOHM in 2006)
Pacific Fishery Management Council 2008 Pacific sardine assessment “update”
Pacific Fishery Management Council Pacific Sardine Harvest Control Rule HG t+1 = (Biomass t – Escape min ) × μ SST × US portion 66,932 = (662,886 – 150,000) × 0.15 × 87%
Pacific Fishery Management Council Control Rule is Environmentally Explicit Jacobson, L. D., and A. D. MacCall. 1995. Stock-recruitment models for Pacific Sardine ( Sardinops sagax ). Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 52:566-577.
Pacific Fishery Management Council
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