ECONorthwest ECONOMICS • FINANCE • PLANNING Se$ng produc-ve, a1ainable educa-onal goals for North Carolina June 15, 2018
Takeaways • Technological change has demanded, and will con-nue to demand, higher skilled labor • North Carolina’s postsecondary a1ainment gap (across various defini-ons) is 11-15 percentage points • North Carolina’s postsecondary a1ainment (associate+) increased by 7 percentage points over the past decade • Sta-ng the obvious: postsecondary enrollment at age 19 is a predictor of postsecondary a1ainment at age 26 • P12 goals should consider measures of hard and soR skills • Achievement gaps measured at age 5 have proven difficult to narrow during K12, confirming the need for age 0-4 programming and measures
Educa-on and the economy
Annual average GDP per capita growth, 1970-2007 Source: Hanushek et al. (2017). Economic Gains from Educa-onal Reform by US States. Journal of Human Capital. South Dakota 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 North Dakota Connecticut Virginia Colorado Massachusetts New Hampshire Economic benefits of a be1er-educated workforce Texas Georgia Contribu-ons to GDP per capita growth, 1970-2007 Kansas Nebraska Louisiana Maryland New Jersey Utah Arkansas Minnesota Mississippi Alabama Rhode Island Iowa North Carolina Oregon South Carolina Tennessee Oklahoma Washington Maine Wisconsin Florida California New York Total annual average GDP per capita growth Test scores Years of schooling Other factors Montana Pennsylvania Arizona Illinois Idaho Indiana New Mexico Vermont Missouri Kentucky Ohio Nevada West Virginia Hawaii Michigan
Risk of job disrup-on Share of occupa-ons at high risk of automa-on Percent Automation Risk 45% - 50% Lower 50% - 55% 55% - 60% 60% - 65% Higher Source: Frey and Osborne (2017) & analysis by Ball State University
Growing importance of social skills in the labor force Cumulative Changes in Employment Share by Occupation Task Intensity 1980 to 2012 High Social, High Math High Social, Low Math Predicted Actual Low Social, High Math Low Social, Low Math 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: Deming, D.J. (2017). The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market. Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 132 issue 4.
Early thoughts on goal se$ng
Early thoughts on goal se$ng • Start at the end and work back • Consider: – Age range(s) – Creden-al types – Growth feasibility – Exis-ng gaps by income, race/ethnicity, geography – Time to goal
State-level goals versus current state-level a1ainment State postsecondary attainment goals and actual attainment, 2016 80% Actual attainment (for 25-34 or 25-64 year olds, depending on goal) MN 60% MA SD NH CO NJ VA ND WA VT IA RI ME CT OR WI KS MT UT MD MO HI WY FL OH IL ID GA TN TX AZ IN AK NM 40% AL OK KY LA AR NV Legend: Certificate+ SC Associate+ Bachelor's+ 20% 20% 40% 60% 80% Attainment goal Sources: Goals compiled by the Lumina Founda-on (HCM Strategists, Strategy Labs); ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS data; Georgetown CEW.
North Carolina postsecondary a1ainment (associate+) by age, 2016 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 Age Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS
North Carolina postsecondary a1ainment (associate+) by age, 2016 60% Ages 25-34: Ages 35-64: recent graduates adult workforce 50% AA+ a1ainment: AA+ a1ainment: 43% 42% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 Age Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS
North Carolina postsecondary a1ainment, by age and race/ethnicity, 2016 White Black Hispanic Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS
Postsecondary a1ainment (associate+) by NC region and race/ethnicity, 2016 70% Total White Black Hispanic 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% North Central Northeast Northwest Piedmont-Triad Sandhills Southeast Southwest Western (South Central) Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS
Postsecondary a1ainment (associate+), 2016 Younger (25-34) Older (35-64) All (25-64) North Carolina 43% 42% 42% Top state 58% 52% 53% Difference -15 -10 -11 Lumina Founda-on’s Stronger Na-on (cer-ficate+), 2016 All (25-64) North Carolina 47% Lumina na-onal goal 60% Difference -13 Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS
What’s feasible? Change in a1ainment (associate+) by state, 2006-2016, ages 25-34 Change in associate+ attainment from 2006-2016, ages 25-34 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 ME WY NE OR CO DC TN IL MO TX CA UT VA OH MN SD NH NC WAMA RI NY KY CT AL NJ WI AR FL PA OK ID SC KS IA IN GA LA AZ MS NM AK WV HI MI NV VT MD DE MT ND Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS
What’s feasible? Change in a1ainment (associate+) by state, 2006-2016, ages 35-64 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 DC IA NC SD MT MNWV OH IN SC PA NH WI GA NE VA MO KY TN MS AL ND WY MI NJ CO CT KS RI LA ME OR IL NY AR MAWA OK TX ID MD FL UT AZ HI NV DE CA AK NM VT Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS
What’s feasible? Change in a1ainment (associate+) by state, 2006-2016, ages 25-64 Change in associate+ attainment from 2006-2016, ages 25-64 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 DC IA NC SD NE MN OH WY TN MO NH CO VA PA ME WI IN SC WV OR KY IL GA AL RI NJ MT CT NY TX MS MA KS WA UT LA AR MI ND OK ID FL CA AZ MD HI NV DE NM AK VT Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS
Poten-al a1ainment goals for North Carolina Younger (25-34) Older (35-64) All (25-64) Moderate +11 pp +8 pp +9 pp Stretch +13 pp +10 pp +11 pp Ambi-ous ? ? +13 pp
Other measures that track progress toward the goal
Age 19 enrollment versus age 26 a1ainment for the cohorts born in 1988-90 (averaged), by state Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS
North Carolina postsecondary enrollment, by age, 2016 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 Age Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS
NC enrollment, by age, compared with a top-performing state and neighboring states, 2016 70% MN 60% VA NC GA 50% TN 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 Age Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS
8 th grade NAEP performance versus age 26 a1ainment for the cohorts born in 1988-90 (averaged), by state Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ACS PUMS and NCES NAEP data
K12 indicators: academic achievement, a1endance, gradua-on No disciplinary Steady incidents in On-time Postsecondary Postsecondary attendance in grades 6-8 HS graduation enrollment outcomes 9 th grade No on-time HS graduation Not proficient in elementary Not proficient reading In elementary math Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE and NSC data
Achievement gaps measured at age 5 have proven difficult to narrow during K12 0.8 parent income in highest quartile 0.6 0.4 in standard deviations 0.2 test scores age 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 parent income in lowest quartile -0.8 Source: White House Council of Economic Advisors (December 2014) The Economics of Early Childhood Investments. Figure 3, page 13.
Analysis to come
Example ques-ons answered by modeling • What will happen through 2030 if we do nothing? • How much would high school gradua-on rates have to improve to reach the postsecondary a1ainment goal by 2030? • To what extent can the state increase overall a1ainment while reducing dispari-es across specified popula-ons given an-cipated upper bounds on postsecondary enrollment growth?
Modeling ac-vi-es • Develop a baseline a1ainment forecast (current condi-ons/policy) • Set targets for system performance needed to achieve the goal • Evaluate contribu-ons of subpopula-on a1ainment to the goal
Example of goal-reaching approach to modeling: Establish the ul-mate goal and iden-fy condi-ons necessary to achieve this goal (condi-ons can be independent of the means used to achieve the goal) Alternative trajectory (certificates+) Baseline (certificates+)
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