Scope of Research and Methodology Figure 1 National survey - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Scope of Research and Methodology Figure 1 • National survey conducted November 8, 2016 – 731 Jewish voters in 2016 election – Survey administered by email invitation to web-based panel of 3 million Americans; respondents self-identify as Jewish at beginning of survey in order to be eligible for the study – Margin of error is +/-3.6 percentage points at the 95% confidence interval • Florida statewide survey conducted November 8, 2016 – 500 Jewish voters in 2016 election – Survey administered by land lines and cell phones – Random selection of people from the Florida voter file who have distinctive Jewish names and self-identify as Jewish at beginning of survey – Margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence interval

2016 Jewish Vote Figure 2

Historical Perspective: Jewish Vote In Presidential Elections Figure 3 • Exit polls have reported that the Democratic presidential candidate has received between 64 and 80 percent of the Jewish vote since 1972, except 1980 • Average Democratic vote share: 70 percent Year % of Jewish Vote Democrat Republican Independent 2016 5 70 25 2012 70 30 2008 74 26 2004 74 25 2000 79 19 1 1996 78 16 3 1992 80 11 9 1988 64 35 1984 67 31 1980 45 39 14 1976 71 27 2 1972 65 35 Source: Exit poll data

2016 Presidential Vote: Clinton Landslide Among Jews Figure 4 National 100 Presidential Vote Congressional Vote 90 80 70 70 70 60 50 40 30 29 20 25 10 3 2 0 Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Democrat Republican

Clinton Slightly Outperforms Party ID And 2012 Vote Figure 5 80 Clinton Performance Compared to 70 Party ID and 2012 Jewish Vote 60 50 +45 40 +40 +40 30 20 10 0 Clinton-Trump Party ID: Dem-Rep 2012 Obama-Romney

2016 Presidential Vote By Denomination Figure 6 Presidential Vote by Denomination: National 100 90 80 76 70 72 71 67 60 56 50 40 39 30 26 20 25 23 21 4 10 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 Reform Conservative Orthodox Just Jewish Total Non-Orthodox Clinton Trump Johnson Stein

Most Jews Voted FOR Clinton, Not Against Trump Figure 7 (VOTED FOR CLINTON) Was your vote more of a (VOTED FOR TRUMP) Was your vote more of a vote vote for Clinton or more of a vote against Trump? for Trump or more of a vote against Clinton? 100 100 National National 90 90 80 80 70 70 68 60 60 50 50 55 40 40 45 30 30 32 20 20 10 10 0 0 FOR AGAINST FOR AGAINST Clinton Trump Trump Clinton

Very Few Trump Voters Considered Clinton Figure 8 (DID NOT VOTE CLINTON) Think back in time for a minute. Did you, at any point in this campaign, consider voting for Hillary Clinton for President? 80 National 70 60 50 40 30 25 20 10 3 2 0 0 Yes, very seriously Yes, somewhat Yes, only a little Didn't consider seriously seriously

Very Few Clinton Voters Considered Trump Figure 9 (DID NOT VOTE TRUMP) Think back in time for a minute. Did you, at any point in this campaign, consider voting for Donald Trump for President? 80 National 70 60 64 50 40 30 20 10 4 4 3 0 Yes, very seriously Yes, somewhat Yes, only a little Didn't consider seriously seriously

High Number Of Jews Voted In The Democratic Primary Figure 10 Primary Vote: National 100 90 80 70 60 62 50 40 30 20 20 18 10 0 Voted in the Democratic Primary Voted in the Republican Primary Did not vote in either

Clinton Dominated The Democratic Primary Vote Figure 11 Democratic Primary Vote Republican Primary Vote 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 66 60 60 56 50 50 40 40 30 30 33 20 20 16 10 10 15 3 10 0 0 Hillary Bernie Donald Marco Ted John Other Clinton Sanders Trump Rubio Cruz Kasich

Campaign Contributions Reflect The Vote Figure 12 In the 2012 Presidential election, did you make any In the 2016 Presidential election, did you make any financial contributions to the campaigns of Barack financial contributions to the campaigns of Hillary Obama or Mitt Romney? Clinton or Donald Trump? 2012 2016 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 74 71 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 22 19 6 6 10 10 1 1 0 0 Obama Romney Both Did not Clinton Trump Both Did not campaign campaign contribute campaign campaign contribute

What Drove the Jewish Vote Figure 13

Fluctuating Jewish Mood Over Direction Of The Country Figure 14 100 90 90 80 66 64 70 61 59 57 56 56 55 55 54 60 50 46 45 40 45 44 44 43 41 39 30 36 34 20 10 10 0 Jul. Mar. Aug. Mar. Nov. Jul. Nov. Nov. Jun. Jul. Nov. 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2015 2016 Right Direction Wrong Track

Jews Trend More Democratic Than The General Population Figure 15 Ideology Party ID Jewish Voters U.S. Population* Jewish Voters U.S. Population* 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 48% 60 Progressive/ 60 Liberal 59 50 50 40 40 39 37 30 30 36 35 33 33 31 20 26 20 23 19 18 10 10 12 0 0 Democrat Independent Republican Progressive Liberal Moderate Conservative *Nov. 2016 exit polls

Obama Much Stronger Among Jews Than Among U.S. Population Figure 16 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Jewish Voters U.S. Population* 100 90 80 70 70 60 50 53 40 45 38 30 33 33 30 20 18 10 0 Strongly approve Total approve Strongly disapprove Total disapprove *Nov. 2016 exit polls

Democratic Figures are Much Stronger than Republicans Figure 17 Favorability: National 80 60 58 51 50 40 45 41 35 20 Barack Hillary Democratic Bill Benjamin Tim 18 18 17 17 Obama Clinton Party Clinton Netanyahu Kaine 0 Mike Donald Paul Ryan Republican Pence Trump Party 28 -20 31 34 37 37 37 -40 55 57 65 -60 72 -80 Favorable Unfavorable

Obama Job Approval Among Jewish Voters vs. Total Population Figure 18 Obama Approval Rating: National 100 90 73 80 72 70 67 62 70 60 60 59 57 56 60 62 50 53 53 50 50 40 46 46 46 43 42 30 20 10 0 Mar. Aug. Mar. Nov. Jul. Nov. Nov. Jun. Jul. Nov. 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2015 2016 Jewish voters Total population (Gallup)

Top TWO Issues In Deciding 2016 Vote Figure 19 Please mark which TWO of these issues were the most important for National Florida you in deciding your vote in the Presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The economy 35 33 Health care 27 22 ISIS and terrorism 27 22 Social Security and Medicare 18 16 The Supreme Court 18 34 Immigration 15 11 The environment 14 13 Education 12 13 Israel 9 8 Taxes 8 4 The deficit and government spending 8 6 Foreign trade 3 3 Iran 2 2

Top Issues by Denomination Figure 20 All Reform Conservative Orthodox Just Jewish Non-Orthodox (37% of pop) (20% of pop) (10% of pop) (31% of pop) (90% of pop) The economy 36 43 29 31 36 Health care 30 22 16 31 28 ISIS and terrorism 28 25 28 27 27 Social Security and Medicare 23 15 8 19 20 The Supreme Court 18 15 11 23 19 Immigration 10 21 20 14 14 The environment 14 8 13 18 14 Education 12 12 18 11 12 Israel 6 16 19 5 8 Taxes 7 10 16 6 7 The deficit and government spending 7 6 7 10 8 Foreign trade 4 2 2 2 3 Iran 2 2 8 1 1

Clinton vs. Trump On Issues Facing Our Country: Nationwide Figure 21 For each, please mark whether you think Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump would do a better job with this issue. 46 68 Health care 17 24 46 66 Social Security and Medicare 13 24 Clinton much better job 43 66 Israel 16 24 Clinton total better job 44 64 Syrian refugees 19 27 Trump much better job 43 64 The economy and jobs Trump total better job 19 28 41 64 Advancing Middle East peace 14 23 39 63 Iran 18 26 40 62 ISIS and terrorism 20 30 38 60 The deficit and government spending 17 29 0 0 10 20 20 30 40 40 50 60 60 70 80 80 90 100 100

Iran Agreement Figure 22

Majority Support for Iran Agreement Figure 23 Do you support or oppose the agreement that the United States and other countries made last year to lift economic sanctions against Iran in exchange for Iran dismantling its nuclear weapons program and allowing international inspectors to monitor Iran’s facilities? 100 Jewish Voters U.S. Population* 90 80 70 60 63 50 51 40 41 37 30 20 21 18 10 0 Strongly support Strongly oppose Total support Total oppose *Washington Post national poll, Oct. 2015

Support For Iran Agreement By Denomination Figure 24 National 100 90 80 70 60 64 63 63 58 50 40 42 37 37 36 30 32 29 26 20 24 20 17 10 15 13 0 Reform Conservative Orthodox Just Jewish Strongly support Total support Strongly oppose Total oppose

Support For Iran Agreement By Age Figure 25 National 100 90 80 76 70 60 50 55 40 45 30 27 26 20 24 10 13 12 0 40 years and older Under 40 years old Strongly support Total support Strongly oppose Total oppose