School Request Observations Jack Petropoulos 2016 Spring Town Meeting Groton, MA
Recognition • There is no more important issue in our town • Good people have worked very hard and pushed something they believe in • Some people are very concerned • We may have missed a few things • There are some important considerations
Themes • Levels Are Not Relevant • Our Schools Are Competitive • Spending Is Competitive • Enrollment Is An Advantage • ‘No’ Is Not A Disaster • There Is An Alternative
Levels and Spend per Student (K through 12 Comps*) Level 1 Schools (FY’15) $25,000 Source: MA DOE $20,000 Spend per Student 2014 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $- Sources: Levels: DOE 2015, http://profiles.doe.mass.edu/state_report/accountability.aspx Spending: DOE 2014 *Comps adjusted to include all schools in a region where districts are distinct prior to a Regional High School.
Demographics and Per Pupil Expenditure
Groton Population -- more fixed incomes and fewer kids 8000 Source: Donahue Institute 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 School Age 65 All others
3,100 2,900 - 193 (-7.8%) 2,700 2,500 2,300 - 367 (-12.4%) 2,100 1,900 - 471 (-19.1%) 1,700 1,500 Actual NESDEC Donahue-based
GDRSD Enrollment of Class Year of Entry into Kindergarten 240 220 200 Enrollment 180 160 - 74 (-38%) 140 120 Source: MA DOE, GDRSD 100 K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Grade 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Spending & Spend Per Student
$16,000 3000 2900 $15,000 2800 2700 $14,000 Number of students Dollars per student 2600 $13,000 2500 2400 $12,000 2300 2200 $11,000 2100 Source: MA DOE, GDRSD 2016 $10,000 2000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Spending/Student Students
Spending per Student and Median Household Income Higher Income = Higher Spend 2014 $170,000 Medfield Medfield Medfield Medfield Dover Sherborn Dover Sherborn Winchester Winchester Winchester Winchester $150,000 Westford Westford Westford Westford Westford Westford Westford Westford Groton Dunstable 2014 Lincoln Subury Lincoln Subury Median Household Income $130,000 Hopkington Hopkington w/ Override (approx.) Weston Weston Weston Weston Weston Weston Weston Weston Lexington Lexington Duxbury Duxbury $110,000 Mendon Upton Mendon Upton Sharon Concord Carlisle Concord Carlisle Medway Medway $90,000 Hamilton Wenham King Phillip Acton Boxboro Acton Boxboro Littleton Littleton Littleton Littleton Littleton Littleton Littleton Littleton $70,000 Belmont Lynnfield/Schituate Lynnfield/Schituate $50,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 $20,000 $22,000 $24,000 Spending per Student Source: MA DOE
Performance Against Comparable Schools • Cannot Compare Test Scores in a Vacuum • Trends Need To Be Evaluated Against Comps • Look at Early Grades • Focus on Comparative Trends • Groton Yellow
GDRSD Budget Overview 2017 “Test Performance Declining”_ pg 7 These are PARCC scores for 2015 Completely different Test than MCAS No Science Scores GDRSD took MCAS for Science in 2015 and scores were highly competitive Source: GDRSD Budget Overview 2017 _ http://gdrsd.org/wp-content/uploads/GDRSD-FY2017-Budget-Education-Slides-v6a.pdf
DART Comparison School (Grade 5) MCAS Test Scores_Duxbury Science Groton: Comp:
DART Comparison School (Grade 5) MCAS Test Scores _ Hamilton - Wenham Science Groton: Comp:
DART Comparison School (Grade 5) MCAS Tests _ Medfield Science Groton: Comp:
DART Comparison School (Grade 5) MCAS Tests _ Scituate Science Groton: Comp:
BIC Comparison School (Grade 5) MCAS Tests _ Harvard Science Groton: Comp:
BIC Comparison School (Grade 5) MCAS Tests _ Westford Science Groton: Comp:
BIC Comparison School (Grade 5) MCAS Tests _ Weston Science Groton: Comp:
Failure To Spend Above Minimum
What If We Say Yes? What If We Say No? Schools Property Taxes
From 56 th to 18 th Highest Tax Rate 2016 Property Tax Rates Note: These are FY ‘16 Municipality Residential rates for all towns except Longmeadow $24.33 Groton. Groton rate is Ashburnham $22.75 projected FY ’15. Other Shutesbury $22.08 town rates can be expected Greenfield $21.81 Orange $21.70 to rise. Our current rate is Wilbraham $21.60 $18.78. The avg growth in Adams $21.39 rates statewide is between Maynard $21.25 2% and 4%. Fitchburg $21.23 Amherst $21.22 Pelham $21.21 East Longmeadow $21.12 Bolton $20.91 Russell $20.88 Worcester $20.61 Paxton $20.59 Sherborn $20.57 Groton (Projected 2017) $20.56 Heath $20.51 Source: https://dlsgateway.dor.state.ma.us/reports/rdPage.aspx?rdReport=PropertyTaxInformation.taxratesbyclass.taxratesbyclass_main
Comp School / General Overrides by Size Municipality Vote Type Fiscal Year Amount Win/Loss Belmont Override 2016 4,500,000 WIN Sharon Override 2008 2,900,000 WIN Sudbury Override 2009 2,821,200 LOSS Lynnfield Override 2007 2,818,935 WIN Scituate Override 2008 2,741,729 WIN Sudbury Override 2008 2,519,400 WIN Scituate Override 2012 2,200,000 WIN Belmont Override 2011 2,000,000 LOSS Hopkinton Override 2007 1,933,119 WIN Sudbury Override 2009 1,821,200 LOSS Upton Override 2016 1,391,632 WIN Hamilton Override 2009 1,288,322 WIN Hopkinton Underride 2015 -1,250,000 WIN Weston Override 2007 1,100,000 WIN Medfield Override 2007 1,000,000 WIN Groton Override 2007 937,570 LOSS Sharon Override 2007 934,000 LOSS Medfield Override 2009 850,000 WIN Upton Override 2011 812,044 WIN Dover Override 2007 800,000 LOSS Harvard Override 2009 786,000 LOSS source https://dlsgateway.dor.state.ma.us/DLSReports/DLSReportViewer.aspx?ReportName=OverrideUnderrideCapStab&ReportTitle=Override,%20Underride,%20Stabilization%20Override%20and%20Capital%20Exclusion%20Votes
Spending per Student -- Two Budget Cases 22,000 20,000 18,000 Dollars per student 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Without Override 2016 With Override 2017 Source: Budget = GDRSD, Enrollment = NESDEC
What Can We Do?
Return With A Revised Budget That Will: • Demonstrate A Multi Year Plan • Leverage Declining Enrollment – Lower Class Sizes – Reallocate Resources – Stabilize Cost • Maintain a Competitive Spending Per Student • Identify Only Highest Priority & Otherwise Unobtainable Needs • For Any New Investment, Show How Costs Decline In Future Avoid A Permanent Solution To A Temporary Problem
Backup Not shown at town meeting
Required Net School Spending (=Chapter 70 + Target Local Share ) Foundation Budget sets a standard level of education for Groton Target Aid Share compared to other towns (part of Ch 70) Supplemental Aid Share (part of Ch 70) Target Local Share represents how much the state feels we should pay (= Foundation – Target State Aid) Target Local Share (= Foundation – Target Aid) “Supplemental Aid Share” represents Ch 70 Aid over and above Target Aid Share Chapter 70 (= Target Aid + Supplemental Aid) Target State Aid calculates how much the state will contribute based on Groton’s wealth
Average Annual Change in Chapter 70 and Enrollment 2011 - 2016 8.00% Lexington Lexington 7.00% Winchester Winchester 6.00% Weston 5.00% Belmont Belmont Chapter 70 4.00% State average State average 3.00% Tynsboro Tynsboro Mendon Upton Mendon Upton Littleton Littleton 2.00% Wrentham Wrentham 1.00% Westford Westford Groton Dunstable Groton Dunstable Ayer Shirley Ayer Shirley 0.00% -4.00% -3.00% -2.00% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% -1.00% Enrollment
Average Annual Change in District Contribution (NSS - Chapter 70) and Enrollment 2011 - 2016 8.00% Mendon Upton 7.00% Wrentham Belmont Westford 6.00% District Contribution 5.00% State average Tynsboro Weston 4.00% Lexington Littleton 3.00% Groton Dunstable Winchester Medway Harvard 2.00% Ayer Shirley 1.00% 0.00% -4.00% -3.00% -2.00% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% Enrollment
• Foundation Budget = The total amount the state thinks should be spent to achieve a state standard of education given what they know about our student population (irrespective of town wealth) • Target State Aid = The amount the state thinks they should contribute given what they know about our town's wealth • Chapter 70 Aid = the amount that the state actually provides. This is independent of Target State Aid and in Groton's case, it is very generous (See graphic) • Target Aid Share = The % of the Foundation Budget that the state feels that the state should cover • Target Local Contribution = The % of the Foundation budget that the state feels the town should cover • Minimum Net School Spending (MNSS) = Chapter 70 Aid + (Foundation - Target State Aid)
Groton Dunstable’s State Aid Relative to “Targeted Aid Share”
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