Scale LNG Applications Tony Regan Tri-Zen International Pte Ltd 4 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Recent LNG Developments & Ten Year Outlook. Update on Developments of Small/Medium Scale LNG Applications Tony Regan Tri-Zen International Pte Ltd 4 th Annual LNG Transport & Storage, Bali 19-21 May 2014 www.tri-zen.com

Introduction to TRI-ZEN  TRI-ZEN is a consulting business focused on energy and utilities  We cover upstream & downstream, technical, commercial & financial  We offer a wide range of services:  Consulting  Strategy  Feasibility studies  Business Development  Project Management  Organizational Development  Alliances  Due diligence for M&A, project finance and IPO’s  Lead consultants located across Asia with a global extended network  Clients include the leading companies in energy and professional services based in Asia, Europe & North America www.tri-zen.com 2 2

2014 – 50 th Anniversary of first commercial LNG shipment Canvey Island 1959 Marsa El Brega 1970 Barcelona 1969 4 trains 0.75 mill tn La Spezia 1971 Fos 1972 Alaska R/P = 265 R/P = 41 Negishi 1969 Senbouku 1972 & 1977 R/P = 98 Sodeguara 1973 Kenai 1969 Chita 1977 Everett 1971 Two trains 1.3 mill tn Tobata 1977 Algeria Libya Himeji 1979 Brunei 1972 5 trains, 7 mill tn Arzew GL4Z 1964 Terminals 3 trains 1.1 mill tn Bontang 1977 Skikda 1972 LNG 2 trains 3.3 mill tonnes 3 trains 3 mill tn Arun 1978 Arzew GL1Z 1978 3 trains 5.1 mill tonnes 6 trains 7.7 mill tn 1964 1969 1970 1972 1977 1978 Arzew Alaska Libya Skikda, Brunei Bontang Azrew, Arun www.tri-zen.com  3

LNG liquefaction plants 2014 Norway Alaska R/P = 265 R/P = 41 R/P = 98 Russia Qatar Algeria Abu Dhabi Libya Egypt Oman Trinidad Yemen Brunei Nigeria PNG Eq. Guinea Malaysia Indonesia Angola Australia Peru LNG Under construction www.tri-zen.com 4

Global LNG Imports Million tonnes 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 N. America Cent & S. America Europe Asia Middle East www.tri-zen.com Confidential 5

Asian LNG Imports Million tonnes 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 China India Indonesia Japan South Korea Taiwan Thailand www.tri-zen.com Confidential 6

Global Market Share 2013  Asia leaps back 2013  US dwindles N. America Middle East 3%  2% Europe weak  New entrants in Asia: Cent & S. America  Thailand 6%  Indonesia Europe  Malaysia 17%  Singapore  Asian sales 173 million tonnes Asia 72% www.tri-zen.com 7

Liquefaction capacity under construction Liquefaction capacity under construction Project Mill tonnes FID Start Up Main shareholders Arzew Algeria 4.7 2008 2014 Sonatrach PNG LNG Papua New Guinea 6.9 2009 2014 ExxonMobil, Oil Search, Santos Qld Curtis Australia 8.5 2010 2014 BG, CNOOC Pacific Rubialas FLNG Colombia 0.5 2012 2015 Exmar Donggi-Senoro Indonesia 2 2011 2015 Mitsubishi, Pertamina, KOGAS Gladstone LNG Australia 7.8 2011 2015 Santos, Petronas, Total, KOGAS Sarawak FLNG Malaysia 1.2 2012 2015 Petronas MLNG Train 9 Malaysia 3.6 2013 2015 Petronas Australia Pacific T1-T2 Australia 9 2011/12 2015/16 Origin, ConocoPhillips, Sinopec Gorgon T1-T3 Australia 15 2009 2015/16 Chevron, Shell, ExxonMobil Sabine Pass T1-2 USA 9 2012 2015-16 Cheniere Energy Prelude Australia 3.6 2011 2016 Shell Wheatstone Australia 8.9 2011 2016 Chevron, Apache, Tokyo Elec Sabine Pass T3-4 USA 9 2013 2016/17 Cheniere Energy Ichthys Australia 8.4 2012 2017 INPEX, Total Yamal LNG Russia 16.5 2013 2017/19 Novatek, Total, CNPC Sabah LNG Malaysia 1.5 2014 2018 Petronas Total 114.6 Not enough to meet 2020 demand Slow progress to sanctioning projects – only one so far in 2014 www.tri-zen.com 8

Global LNG liquefaction capacity 2015 Norway R/P = 265 R/P = 41 Russia R/P = 98 Qatar Algeria Libya Abu Dhabi Egypt Oman Yemen Trinidad Brunei Colombia Nigeria Indonesia Malaysia Eq. Guinea PNG Angola Peru Australia Global liquefaction capacity 313 million tonnes www.tri-zen.com

Forecast LNG Demand 2015 R/P = 265 R/P = 41 Europe R/P = 98 47 mill North America tn 9 mill tn Middle East 7 mill tn Asia 216 mill tn Caribb, Cent & S. America 21 mill tn LNG demand (million tonnes) Estimated global demand 300 million tonnes www.tri-zen.com

Forecast LNG Supply & Demand 2015 Europe R/P = 265 R/P = 41 Euro 47 mill R/P = 98 tn North America Asia Pacific 9 mill tn 216 mill tn Middle East 7 mill tn Africa Caribb, Cent & S. America Asia Pacific 21 mill tn 111 mill tn LNG demand (million tonnes) Liquefaction capacity (million tonnes) (Existing, under construction, planned) Liquefaction Capacity 313 million tonnes Base case demand 300 million tonnes www.tri-zen.com

Demand Forecast (Base Case) Million tonnes 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 North America Central Amer/Caribb South America Europe Asia Middle East www.tri-zen.com 12

Global LNG liquefaction capacity 2025 Canada Norway Russia R/P = 265 R/P = 41 Russia R/P = 98 USA Qatar Libya Algeria Abu Dhabi China Egypt Oman Yemen Trinidad Brunei Colombia Nigeria Indonesia Malaysia PNG Eq. Guinea Tanzania Angola Peru Mocambique Australia Liquefaction capacity (Existing, under construction and planned) but note slide 16 www.tri-zen.com

Forecast LNG Supply & Demand 2025 R/P = 265 R/P = 41 USA R/P = 98 North America Europe 16 mill tn 89 mill Middle East tn Asia Pacific 11 mill tn 460 mill tn Africa Caribb, Cent & S. America Asia Pacific 55 mill tn 235 mill tn LNG demand (million tonnes) Liquefaction capacity (million tonnes) (Existing, under construction & Liquefaction Capacity 752 million tonnes planned but note slide 16) Base case demand 530 million tonnes www.tri-zen.com

Global liquefaction capacity Mill tonnes Liquefaction capacity Million tonnes  Existing projects 27 1200 277  Under construction 14 116 1000  Planned/Proposed 41 359 800  Speculative 32 277  Total 114 1029 600 400 200 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Existing Under construction Planned/Proposed Speculative Far too much on offer – 1,029 million tonnes to meet 2025 demand of 530 million tonnes Not all the planned and proposed will go ahead – perhaps only about half www.tri-zen.com 15

Proposed LNG projects Kitimat LNG Apache, EOG Resources, EnCana Douglas Island BC LNG Export Co-op LNG Canada, Prince Rupert Shell , Mitsubishi, KOGAS, PetroChina Kitimat BC 10 mtpa Pacific NW LNG Petronas, Japex, IOC Petroleum Brunei LNG Canada 12 mtpa Ridley Island, Prince Rupert BG Douglas Island BC 0.9 mtpa Aurora LNG, Inpex/CNOOC Pacific NW LNG 10 mtpa Grassy Point, Woodside Ridley Island BG 10 mtpa Kenai AK 1.3 mtpa WCC LNG ExxonMobil Aurora LNG 12 mtpa Valdez AK 14 mtpa Kitsault, Kitsault Energy Grassy Point Triton LNG, Triton, AltaGas, Idemitsu WCC LNG 15 mtpa USA Kitsault 20 mtpa Valdez AL Triton LNG 2.3 mtpa Golboro 5 mtpa Elba Island GA El Paso Woodfibre LNG 2.1 mtpa Melford 4.5 mtpa Lake Charles LA Trunkline LNG Lake Charles LA, Magnolia LNG Oregon LNG OR 11 mtpa Cameron LA Sempra Energy Jordan Cove OR 6 mtpa Plaquemines LA CE FLNG Cameron Parish LA Waller LNG Services Cameron Parish LA, Gasfin Development Cameron Parish LA, Venture Global Cove Point MD 7.8 mtpa West Cameron LA Delfin LNG Proposed capacity: Elba Island GA 3.7 mtpa Main Pass LA, United Energy, Freeport-McMoRan Energy Canada 109 mill tn Sabine Pass LA Cheniere Energy USA 282 mill tn Plaquemines LA, Louisiana LNG Energy Cove Point MD Dominion Pascagoula MS El Paso GE Energy Lake Charles LA 15 mtpa Jordon Cove OR Jordon Cove Energy Freeport TX 13.2 mtpa Lake Charles LA 0.7 mtpa Warrenton, OR Oregon LNG Corpus Christie TX 13.5 mtpa Cameron LA 12 mtpa Brownsville TX Gulf Coast LNG Export Brownsville TX 21 mtpa Cameron LA 1.4 mtpa Brownsville TX Eos LNG, Barca LNG Brownsville TX 12 mtpa Cameron LA 1.5 mtpa Brownsville TX Texas LNG Brownsville TX 2 mtpa W. Cameron LA 13.5 mtpa Freeport TX Freeport LNG Lavaca Bay TX 3 mtpa Main Pass LA 24 mtpa Corpus Christie TX Cheniere Energy Golden Pass TX 15.6 mtpa Sabine Pass LA 16.5 mtpa Golden Pass TX QP ExxonMobil Lavaca Bay TX 10.3 mtpa Plaquemines LA 8 mtpa Lavaca Bay TX Excelerate Ingleside TX 8.2 mtpa Pascagoula MS 11.2 mtpa Ingleside TX, Pangea LNG www.tri-zen.com

Main participants Equity share in liquefaction capacity Equity share in liquefaction capacity (Top 10) 2005 2010 2015 2020 Mill tonnes Qatar Petroleum 16.21 46.19 50.96 50.96 60 Shell 10.78 19.67 28.08 33.48 Sonatrach 20.70 22.00 28.80 28.80 50 Petronas 18.83 19.48 26.36 27.86 ExxonMobil 6.98 14.55 20.18 21.43 40 Total 5.17 11.80 14.26 19.58 Chevron 1.98 2.72 9.50 18.33 Cheniere 9.00 18.00 30 BG 5.62 7.11 16.32 16.32 NNPC 4.66 10.36 14.29 14.29 20 BP 8.71 14.19 12.49 12.49 Novatek 9.90 10 ConocoPhillips 1.05 5.18 7.51 7.51 Mitsubishi 5.00 6.86 7.51 7.51 0 Inpex 0 0.93 0.39 6.67 Woodside 1.98 2.72 6.55 6.55 ENI 5.21 6.86 6.43 6.43 Pertamina 15.46 16.17 6.08 6.08 Oman Govt 5.07 5.07 5.10 5.10 Gazprom 0 0 4.80 4.80 2005 2010 2015 2020 133.41 211.86 274.62 322.10 www.tri-zen.com 17