SC IENC E AND PO L IC Y Re gional T r aining on Climate F inanc - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

MODUL E 1 C L IMAT E C HANG E SC IENC E AND PO L IC Y Re gional T r aining on Climate F inanc e in Southe ast Asian c ountr ie s

2 OUT L I NE 1) Clima te Cha ng e sc ie nc e a nd the 2°C T a rg e t 2) I nte rna tio na l Clima te Ne g o tia tio ns 3) Clima te F ina nc e ne g o tia tio ns unde r the UNF CCC pro c e ss

C LIMAT E C HANG E SC IENC E AND T HE 2°C T ARG ET Se c tio n 1

4 A SI MPL E CL I MAT E SCI E NCE PRI ME R I t a ll sta rts with 1) Sola r Ra dia tion & 2) T he Gre e nhouse E ffe c t  T he E a rth’ s a tmo sphe re is c o mprise d o f se ve ra l g a se s, e spe c ia lly nitro g e n (N2), o xyg e n (O2), a nd a rg o n (Ar) *ac c o unting fo r 99.8% o f the atmo sphe ric g ase s.  T he a tmo sphe re a lso inc lude s sma ll a mo unts o f Gre e nho use Ga se s (Wate r vapo ur (H 2 O), Carb o n dio xide (CO 2 ), Me thane (CH 4 ), Nitro us o xide (N 2 O), Ozo ne (O 3 ), and Cs)) tha t a b so rb a nd e mit Chlo ro fluo ro c arb o ns (CF ra dia tio n within the the rma l infra re d ra ng e US EPA - "The Greenhouse Effect" in: "Introduction," in: US EPA (December 2012), Climate Change Indicators in the United States, 2nd edition , Washington, DC, USA: US EPA, http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/download.html, p.3. EPA 430-R-12-004.

5 T HE E ART H’S CARBON CYCL E http:/ / www.c lima te -c ha ng e -kno wle dg e .o rg / uplo a ds/ c _c yc le _3_293.png http:/ / www.e srl.no a a .g o v/ g md/ o utre a c h/ iso to pe s/

http:/ / www.e srl.no a a .g o v/ g md/ o utre a c h/ iso to pe s/ HUMAN DI SRUPT I ON OF T HE 6 CARBON CYCL E • T he na tura l c a rb o n c yc le a c hie ve s a sta te o f dyna mic b a la nc e , i.e . ab so rb ing and e mitting an e q ual amo unt o ve r time . • Huma n g re e nho use g a s (GHG) e missio ns a re disrupting this b a la nc e , a nd a tmo sphe ric c a rb o n c o nc e ntra tio ns a re ste a dily inc re a sing . • Huma n a c tivitie s a re re spo nsib le fo r the re le a se o f o ve r 30 Gig a T o ns (Gt) o f CO 2 (o r ~9 Gt o f Ca rb o n) e ve ry ye a r.  F ro m: I PCC WGI F o urth Asse ssme nt Re po rt

7 AT MOSPHE RIC CO 2 CONCE NT RAT IONS F ro m the sta rt o f the I ndustria l Re vo lutio n (1760) to no w, a tmo sphe ric CO 2 c o nc e ntra tio ns inc re a se d fro m 280 ppm to 400 ppm. "Ma una L o a CO2 mo nthly me a n c o nc e ntra tio n" b y De lo rme - Own wo rk. Da ta fro m Dr. Pie te r T a ns, NOAA/ E SRL a nd Dr. Ra lph K e e ling , Sc ripps Institutio n o f Oc e a no g ra phy. L ic e nse d unde r CC BY-SA 4.0 via Wikime dia Co mmo ns - https:/ / c o mmo ns.wikime dia .o rg / wiki/ F ile :Ma una _L o a _CO2_m o nthly_me a n_c o nc e ntra tio n.svg # / me dia / F ile :Ma una _L o a _C O2_mo nthly_me a n_c o nc e ntra tio n.svg

8 HUMAN CAUSE S OF GRE E NHOUSE GAS E MI SSI ONS Herzog, Timothy (July 2009), World Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2005. WRI Working Paper , Washington, DC, By Ma k T ho rpe @ https:/ / c o mmo ns.wikime dia .o rg / wiki/ F ile :Glo b a l_Ca rb o n_E missio ns.svg USA: World Resources Institute (WRI), http://www.wri.org/publication/navigating-the-numbers, p.2.

9 MORE GRE E NHOUSEGAS ME ANS MORE GRE E NHOUSE E F F E CT AND GL OBAL WARMING  Ba se d o n the Ha dle y Ce ntre Ha dCM3 c lima te mo de l a nd the I S92a ("busine ss as usual") pr oje c tions, an ave r age c hange of 3.0°C is pre dic te d fo r g lo b a l surfa c e te mpe ra ture s.  T his mo de l is to wa rds the lo w e nd o f the I nte rg o ve rnme nta l Pa ne l o n Clima te Cha ng e 's 1.4-5.8°C pre dic te d c lima te c ha ng e fro m 1990 to 2100 By Ro b e rt A. Ro hde @ https:/ / c o mmo ns.wikime dia .o rg / wiki/ F ile :Glo b a l_Wa rming _Pre dic tio ns_Ma p.jpg

10 Global T e mpe r atur e Change "Glo b a l T e mpe ra ture Ano ma ly" b y NASA Go dda rd Institute fo r Spa c e Studie s - http:/ / da ta .g iss.na sa .g o v/ g iste mp/ g ra phs/ . L ic e nse d unde r Pub lic Do ma in via Wikime dia Co mmo ns - NOAA (July 2010), State of the Climate in 2009, as appearing in the July 2010 issue (Vol. 91) of the https:/ / c o mmo ns.wikime dia .o rg / wiki/ F ile :Glo b a l_T e mpe ra Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS). Supplemental and Summary Materials: Report ture _Ano ma ly.svg # / me dia / F ile :Glo b a l_T e mpe ra ture _Ano at a Glance: Highlights , US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): National Climatic ma ly.svg Data Center, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/2009.php, p.5.

11 State of the Climate in 2009: Supplemental and Summary Materials: Report at a Glance: Highlights , US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: National Climatic Data Center, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/2009.php, page 2.

State of the Climate in 2009: Supplemental and Summary Materials: Report at a Glance: Highlights , US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: National Climatic Data Center, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/2009.php, page 2.

13 2 ° C MAXI T HE MUM WARMI NG T ARGE T  Go ve rnme nts ha ve a g re e d to limit CO 2 e missio ns to ha lt c lima tic wa rming to a ma ximum o f 2 ° C.  But will this b e a c hie ve d, a nd will this b e e no ug h?  T he a nswe rs a re no t c e rta in, b ut the sc ie ntific sig na ls a re tha t we a re still mo ving e ve r c lo se r to a c ritic a l tipping po int.  Ma jo r Co nc e rns inc lude :  T he 2 ° C ma ximum is a lre a dy to o muc h.  Curre nt tre nds, unle ss imme dia te ly c ha ng e d, will ta ke us we ll pa st the 2 ° C ma ximum .  T he re q uire d a c tio ns to me e t this ta rg e t ha ve ye t to b e e na c te d.

14 SAF E AT MOSPHE RI C CO 2 CONCE NT RAT I ON?  Curre ntly a tmo sphe ric CO 2 c o nc e ntra tio ns a re a t 400 ppm a nd e asing at ~3 ppm/ ye ar . inc r  T he wa rming e ffe c ts o f c a rb o n dio xide e missio ns pe rsist in the a tmo sphe re fo r ~1,000 ye a rs.  2 ° C = 450 ppm  we a re no t so sure , a 50/ 50 c ha nc e & a t c urre nt ra te s we wo uld re a c h this b y ~2030  T he mo st string e nt c a lls sug g e st tha t we ha ve a lre a dy pa sse d a sa fe o pe ra ting limit, a nd sho uld a im to de c re a se to 350 NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) https:/ / e n.wikipe dia .o rg / wiki/ E ffe c ts_o f_g lo b a l_wa rming # / me dia / F ile :Pro je c te d_c ha ng e _in_a nnu ppm a nd a 1.5 ° C wa rming a l_a ve ra g e _pre c ipita tio n_fo r_the _21st_c e ntury,_b a se d_o n_the _SRE S_A1B_e missio ns_sc e na rio ,_a n d_simula te d_b y_the _GF DL _CM2.1_mo de l.png

15 CL IMAT E CHANGE IMPACT S & RISKS  T he impa c ts o f c lima te c ha ng e inc lude inc re a se d te mpe ra ture s, inc re a se s a nd de c re a se s in pre c ipita tio n, se a le ve l rise , inte nsific a tio n o f e xtre me we a the r e ve nts, e tc .  T he se impa c ts re sult in nume ro us g e o g ra phic a lly spe c ific risks, suc h a s flo o ding , re duc tio ns in c ro p pro duc tivity, sho rta g e s in fre sh wa te r supply, se a inunda tio n, e tc .  T he mo re vulne ra b le c o mmunitie s a re , the mo re like ly it is tha t the se risks will re sult in e xtre me disa ste rs.

16 K E Y F I NDI NGS F ROM I PCC AR5 WGI I I MI T I GAT I ON OF CL I MAT E CHANGE  T o re ma in b e lo w the 2ºC ma ximum wa rming ta rg e t, to ta l a nthro po g e nic Ca rb o n e missio ns must b e limite d to 790 GtC  F ro m 1870 to 2011, huma n a c tivitie s ha ve le d to the re le a se o f 515 GtC , i.e . c o nsuming 65% o f this to ta l Ca rb o n Budg e t.  T he re is o nly a 275 GtC Budg e t re ma ining if we a re to limit wa rming to b e lo w 2ºC  At the c urre nt ra te , we will ha ve spe nt the re ma ining Ca rb o n Budg e t b y 2050

17 AMBI T I OUS MI T I GAT I ON I S AF F ORDABL E  While AR5 WGI I stre sse s the impo rta nc e o f ta king stra te g ic a da pta tio n me a sure s to re duc e the risks pe o ple will fa c e fro m c lima te c ha ng e , WGI I I stre sse s the impo rta nc e a nd va lue o f c o nc e rte d mitig a tio n e ffo rts.  Amb itio us Mitig a tio n e ffo rts wo uld le a d to E c o no mic g ro wth re duc e d b y ~ 0.06%  T he e stima te d c o sts do no t a c c o unt fo r the b e ne fits o f re duc e d c lima te c ha ng e  While , unmitig a te d c lima te c ha ng e wo uld c re a te inc re a sing risks to e c o no mic g ro wth a nd po te ntia lly c re a te fa r mo re ne g a tive impa c ts o n g ro wth a nd de ve lo pme nt.

18 MI T I GAT I ON ME ASURE S  Mo re e ffic ie nt use o f e ne rg y  Gre a te r use o f lo w-c a rb o n a nd no -c a rb o n e ne rg y  Ma ny o f the se te c hno lo g ie s e xist to da y  I mpro ve d c a rb o n sinks  Re duc e d de fo re sta tio n a nd impro ve d fo re st ma na g e me nt a nd pla nting o f ne w fo re sts  Bio -e ne rg y with c a rb o n c a pture a nd sto ra g e  L ife style a nd b e ha vio ura l c ha ng e s

INT ERNAT IO NAL C LIMAT E NEG O T IAT IO NS Se c tio n 2