Sander Houweling Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Department of Earth - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sander Houweling Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Department of Earth Sciences, Amsterdam, The Netherlands SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research, Utrecht, The Netherlands DLR CCC 2018

• Urgency of extended greenhouse gas monitoring • Emission estimation using existing instrumentation • Current capabilities & future needs • Implications for the design of new instrumentation DLR CCC 2018

• Help narrow the uncertainty range of carbon cycle – climate scenarios • Support the monitoring of planned emission reductions DLR CCC 2018

Gas production in Groningen will stop in 2030 • Infrastructure will partly be dismantled • Groningen gas field future gas production DLR CCC 2018

• NDC’s are a good step, but not the final answer to the <2 o target • The challenge is enormous • Without independent monitoring of NCD pledges we are unlikely to reach the climate targets DLR CCC 2018

• Global stock take: evaluation of actual emissions against NDCs (5 year interval starting in 2023) How to ensure compliance with the global increase? Atmospheric data UNFCCC inventory Operational emission National statistics IPCC guidelines + natural fluxes verification (weather/climate centers) etc. H2020 VERIFY / CHE, CAMS DLR CCC 2018

• Global stock take: evaluation of actual emissions against NDCs (5 year interval starting in 2023) How to ensure compliance with the global increase? Atmospheric data National scale National GHG data inverse model UNFCCC inventory Operational emission + natural fluxes verification (weather/climate centers) etc. National statistics IPCC guidelines WMO – IG 3 IS H2020 VERIFY / CHE, CAMS DLR CCC 2018

Past, current and planned missions: present SCIAMACHY Phased out GOSAT Currently operational OCO ‐ 2 Planned TanSat Feng Yun 3D Gaofen 5 GOSAT 2 OCO ‐ 3 MicroCarb GeoCarb CO2M 2015 2025 2005 2010 2020 DLR CCC 2018

Satellite In situ networks CO2 XCO2 Transport model + Optimizer Inversion optimized fluxes DLR CCC 2018 A priori fluxes

ESA GHG CCI (Buchtwitz et al) • IAV (long ‐ term mean removed) • Atmos. Transport model Satellite retrieval 2011 La Nina differences differences DLR CCC 2018

OSSE estimated impact on L4 surface fluxes (ESA ‐ LOGOFLUX) L4 Uncertainty is dominated by the impact • systematic retrieval uncertainty => Cirrus/aerosol scattering NB: Transport model errors not considered • here. DLR CCC 2018

• TRANSCOM Age of Air (Krol et al, GMDD, 2018) Clock tracers, reset in the ‘forcing volume’ F F = Surface layer • Results highlight the importance of vertical mixing • DLR CCC 2018

Quantified using model output of the TRANSCOM CH4 inter ‐ comparison (Patra et al, 2011) Houweling et al (2017) DLR CCC 2018

FTIR => Imaging spectrometer: ± factor 1000 more data November 12 th to December 30 th , 2017 TROPOMI GOSAT • Further enhanced tropical coverage: Geostationary? => ARRHENIUS (EE ‐ 10 proposal) DLR CCC 2018

Sudd fresh water marshes South Sudan • 30000 – 130000 km 2 Seasonal flooded savannah DLR CCC 2018

Year around measurements >60N! Ehret et al, 2017 DLR CCC 2018

Nassar et al (2017) using OCO ‐ 2 data: Sasan powerplant (Singrauli, India) Reported production: 22 Mt/yr OCO ‐ 2 derived estimate: 24.8 ± 4 Mt/yr Nassar et al, 2017 DLR CCC 2018

Beijing, Summer 2.1 ppm 0.7 ppm • Urban XCO2 signal: Highly dynamic, 2.1 ± 1.2 ppm (ESA ‐ AEroCarb) DLR CCC 2018

• Use of NO2 to facilitate the detection of CO 2 plumes (ESA ‐ SmartCarb) • How critical are co ‐ emitted aerosols for the CO2 retrieval (ESA ‐ AeroCarb) NO 2 ( σ ref = 2×10 15 cm ‐ 2 ) CO 2 ( σ ref = 0.7 ppm) Berlin courtesy D. Brunner Jänschwalde Boxberg DLR CCC 2018

• Further improvement of GHG monitoring capabilities is critical and urgent • Important steps have been taken ( e.g. coverage => TROPOMI ), or are planned for the future (e.g. high latitudes => Merlin , local source quantification => CO2M ) • CO2M: Requirements / payload is investigated in supporting scientific studies (e.g supporting NO 2 , aerosol sensors) • Modelling capabilities have to develop in parallel, and should receive increasing priority (on regional as well as local scales) DLR CCC 2018