Safeguarding urban areas confronting climate trends and extreme - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Safeguarding urban areas confronting climate trends and extreme weather by means of a trans-disciplinary approach www YES, PARIS Ph. Staufer M. Siekmann J. Pinnekamp www YES, Paris www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 1

Content Motivation + Aim Methods + processes Modifying land use by WSUD Model scenarios Mathematical + numerical results More to come Members of the network (Acknowledgement) www YES, Paris www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 2

Motivation Climate Change Demographic Change Paris Aix la chapelle (Aachen) www YES, Paris Ruhrarea www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 3

Motivation Climate Change � Temperature [°C] � Winter: +3.0 � Summer: +1.5 up to +3.5 � Precipitation � Winter: +5 up to +20 % � Summer: ±0 up to -15 % � Increasing Extremes � Rainfall intensity � Temperature Prognosticated changes of tempe- � Duration of events rature and des precipitation in Europe � Increasing probability of as result of the MMD-A18 simulations www YES, Paris (IPCC, 2007) extremes www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 4

Small hydrological Cycle Qualitative Impacts of Climate Change Extreme Shift in the weather water balance Water supply surface water ground water Urban drainage Combined sewage www YES, Paris - negative; o open, + positive www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 5

Motivation Demographic change greatly decreasing ( below -12 %) decreasing (-12 % up to -7 %) lightly decreaing (-7 % up to -2 %) stable (-2 % up to 2 %) lightly increasing (2 % up to 7 %) increasing (7 % up to 12 %) greatly increasing (12 % and more) www YES, Paris Bertelmannstiftung (2006) www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 6

Aim Basic Idea: Todays and future changes of urbanization facing migration and demographics in order to initiate adaptation with regard to climate change � Water Sensitive Urban Design www YES, Paris www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 7

Water Sensitive Urban Design Benefits � Taking actions now (Stern Report) � Implementation Water Framework Directive � good ecological condition � Synergies adapting urban design � aging population � extreme weather (heat and precipitation) � land use � development of old industrial sites � sustainability � “No regret” measures www YES, Paris www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 8

Water Sensitive Urban Design Benefits � Water in the city � appearance � micro climate � cooling agent, rising evatranspiration � recreation (bathing water quality) � High wage locations � today’s standards � flooding � water quality � system reliability www YES, Paris www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 9

Processes Multi-disciplinary approach � Urban planning and urban mobility � Urban water management � Water supply � Social Scientists � Risk awareness Rain Inceneration � Implementation Source Reservoirs Agriculture. Landfill industry Settlement Sludge treatment Treatment Lakes/ WWTP Tanks surface waters Infiltration Rainwater Bank filtration Water body www YES, Paris groundwater Gujer (2002) www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 10

Processes Multi-disciplinary approach � Urban planning and urban mobility � Urban water management � Water supply � Social Scientists � Risk awareness Rain Inceneration � Implementation Source Reservoirs Agriculture. Landfill industry Settlement Sludge treatment Treatment Lakes/ WWTP Trans-disciplinarity Tanks surface waters Infiltration Rainwater � Politics Bank filtration Water body � Administration www YES, Paris groundwater Gujer (2002) � Individual www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 11

Methods Predictability of change Social studies: O (t) = Δ B • (I – r) with: O Output I Input Intelligence (brain) B r resistance www YES, Paris www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 12

Methods Predictability of change Social studies: O (t) = Δ B • (I – r) with: O Output I Input Intelligence (brain) B r resistance www YES, Paris Outcome depends on e.g. teamwork www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 13

Methods Predictability of change Urban hydrology: Q (t) = Δ ψ • (Qi – Qo) with: O Outflow Qi Inflow (rain) Qo int. Outflow (inflitration) ψ runoff coefficient www YES, Paris Outcome depends on e.g. landuse, people www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 14

Processes Trans-disciplinary approach � Stakeholders expectations � Risk awareness � Best management practices � etc. www YES, Paris www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 15

Processes The trans-disciplinary paradigm � trans-disciplinary integration and transfer of knowledge across all stakeholder parties � implementation using processes on both levels emotional and cognitive � context related examples, participation of individuals and supervision of success � evolution of scenarios as subject for transfer of know-how and tuition concepts � promotion of water sensitive urban design (WSUD) www YES, Paris www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 16

Processes The trans-disciplinary paradigm � trans-disciplinary integration and transfer of knowledge across all stakeholder parties � implementation using processes on both levels emotional and cognitive � context related examples, participation of individuals and supervision of success � evolution of scenarios as subject for transfer of know-how and tuition concepts � promotion of water sensitive urban design (WSUD) Results appear to be very simple www YES, Paris www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 17

Modeling scenario Climate models � Efforts for regionalisation are in progress First assessment � 3to5-scenario (rational method) � hydrologic modeling www YES, Paris www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 18

Modeling scenario Combined sewer overflows � Szenario: � Shift of the water balance from summer to winter of 15 % � Increase of extreme precipitation of 15 % in summer � constant annular precipitation � changes in evapotranspiration neglected � sedimentation during dry weather neglected � Catchment data: � A ca = 31 ha � A i = 14 ha � 2.900 inhabitants – no industry � Hydrologic sewer quality model www YES, Paris � central basin approach � Moment www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 19

Results Hydrologic modeling 300 10,00 climate change 260 8,00 spec. Emitted load by CSO status quo [kgCSB/(ha(i)*a)] increase [%] 220 6,00 increase (rel.) 180 4,00 140 2,00 100 0,00 www YES, Paris 20 30 40 50 60 70 spec. storage volume [m³/ha(i)] www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 20

Results 3to5-scenario � 15 min design storm � current state: 143,5 l/(s*ha) = 0,86 mm/min � climate change: 159,8 l/(s*ha) = 0,96 mm/min � increase: about 11 % www YES, Paris www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 21

Results WSUD: Tables for measures for different disciplines Landuse Rainwater Activity Harvesting Reservoir Infiltration Roofs Constrains Effects Urban development Water management Climate/Environmental Residents/ Property owner www YES, Paris Commune www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 22

Conclusions � Traditional solutions in concrete are not the most desirably methods. � Economic and population changes demand flexible and sustainable solutions wherever possible. � Adaptation will concern existing systems which are serving well for up to a hundred years. � Points of interest have favorably to be located at the head to the sewer system. That way disconnection of surfaces, pollution control, retention and infiltration are more effective. � A first assessment leads to an increase of max. discharge of 11%. � WSUD measure are feasible to achieve this goal www YES, Paris www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 23

Outlook 2nd phase has started � Residential/ commercial area � brown field development � Inner City www YES, Paris www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 24

Summary � Climate change and demographics will lead to changes in urban development � water management has to be an important part � For this change people (individuals) need to be involved � First assessment of the magnitude � design level � adaptation is possible � further research on rare events � implementation and acceptance has just started www YES, Paris www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 25

Acknowledgement Funding Federal ministry of research and education Germany Partner www YES, Paris www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 26

Thank You ! Contact: Institute of Environmental Engineering, RWTH Aachen University email: staufer@isa.rwth-aachen.de web: www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet www YES, Paris www.isa.rwth-aachen.de/klimanet 27