Policies for Creation of Safe and Policies Creation Safe and for the of a the a Secure Society in Light of Increasing Secure Society Light Increasing in the of the Natural Disasters around the World Natural Disasters around World the by Masanori HAMADA Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan 1
～） Natural Disasters in the World during Recent 5 Years (2003 ～） Natural Disasters in the World during Recent 5 Years (2003 The number of events with more than 1000 Death Toll: 14 The number of events with more than 1000 Death Toll: 14 Death toll: 635,507 Death toll: 635,507 Earthquake and Tsunami Iran ・ Bam 2003 EQ. 2005 North of Pakistan EQ. Storm and Flood （ 43,200 ） （ 74,651 ） 2004 Caribbean Sea Hurricane （ 3,000 ） 2008 Wenchuan EQ. 2003 North of Algeria EQ. （ 87,419 ） （ 2,266 ） 2004 Haiti Flood （ 2,665 ） 2005 Hurricane Katrina （ 2,541 ） 2005 Hurricane 2005 India, Flood and Wilma （ 1,597 ） Landslide （ 1,503 ） 2008 Myanmar Cyclone （ 133,655 ） 2006 Middle of Java Island EQ. （ 44,300 ） 2004 Sumatra EQ. and Tsunami （ 229,866 ） 2004 India and Bangladesh, 2005 India and Bangladesh, Storm Flood （ 2,000 ） （ 4,049 ） 2
Earthquake and Tsunami Disasters in the world in Recent 5 Years (2003~) Earthquake and Tsunami Disasters in the world in Recent 5 Years (2003~) 2004 Sumatra Earthquake and Tsunami 2004 Sumatra Earthquake and Tsunami 2005 Northern Pakistan Earthquake 2005 Northern Pakistan Earthquake 2004 Sumatra Earthquake and Tsunami 2005 Northern Pakistan Earthquake (M=9.1, Dead:225,000) (M=9.1, Dead:225,000) (M=7.6, Dead:75,000) (M=7.6, Dead: 75,000) (M=9.1, Dead:225,000) (M=7.6, Dead:75,000) 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake 3 2006 Java Earthquake (M=6.3, Dead:44,300) 2006 Java Earthquake (M=6.3, Dead:44,300) (M=7.9, Dead:87,000) 2006 Java Earthquake (M=6.3, Dead:44,300) (M=7.9, Dead:87,000) (M=7.9, Dead:87,000)
Earthquake Disasters in Japan in Recent 5 Years (2003~) Earthquake Disasters in Japan in Recent 5 Years (2003~) 2004 Niigata Earthquake (M=6.8, Dead:68) 2004 Niigata Earthquake (M=6.8, Dead:68) 2007 Noto Earthquake (M=6.9, Dead:1) 2007 Noto Earthquake (M=6.9, Dead:1) 2004 Niigata Earthquake (M=6.8, Dead:68) 2007 Noto Earthquake (M=6.9, Dead:1) 2007 Off Coast of Niigata Earthquake (M=6.8, 2007 Off Coast of Niigata Earthquake (M=6.8, 2008 Iwate ‐ ‐ Miyagi Earthquake (M=7.2, Dead:23) Miyagi Earthquake (M=7.2, Dead:23) 2008 Iwate 2007 Off Coast of Niigata Earthquake (M=6.8, 2008 Iwate ‐ Miyagi Earthquake (M=7.2, Dead:23) Dead:15) 4 Dead:15) Dead:15)
Storm and Flood Disasters in The World in Recent 5 Years (2003~ Storm and Flood Disasters in The World in Recent 5 Years (2003~) Hurricane Katrina (2005, U.S.A, Dead:2,541) Hurricane Katrina (2005, U.S.A, Dead:2,541) Cyclone (2007, Bangladesh, Dead:4,123) Cyclone (2007, Bangladesh, Dead:4,123) Hurricane Katrina (2005, U.S.A, Dead:2,541) Cyclone (2007, Bangladesh, Dead:4,123) Cyclone (2008, Myanmar, Dead:133,655) Typhoon No.23 (2004, Japan, Dead198) 5 Cyclone (2008, Myanmar, Dead:133,655) Typhoon No.23 (2004, Japan, Dead198) Cyclone (2008, Myanmar, Dead:133,655) Typhoon No.23 (2004, Japan, Dead198)
Damaging Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the World Damaging Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the World during Last 60 Years during Last 60 Years (Events with more than 1,000 Death Toll) 8 Asia America 7 Europe Others 6 NUMBER OF EVENTS 5 4 3 2 1 0 1946 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 2001 ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ 50 55 60 85 90 95 05 80 2000 65 70 75 6
Number of Earthquakes with Magnitudes Number of Earthquakes with Magnitudes more than 7 and 6 during Last 60 Years more than 7 and 6 during Last 60 Years 180 900 Number of Events （ above M6.0 ） Number of Events （ above M7.0 ） 160 above M7.0 800 above M6.0 140 700 120 600 100 500 80 400 60 300 40 200 20 100 0 0 1946 86 96 01 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 91 ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ 05 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 50 55 60 7
Damaging Storms and Floods in the World Damaging Storms and Floods in the World during 60 Years during 60 Years (Events with more than 1,000 Death Toll) 14 Asia America 12 Europe Others Number of Events 10 8 6 4 2 0 1946 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 2001 ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ 50 55 60 80 85 90 95 2000 05 65 70 75 8
Temperature Change of Air and Sea Water in the Temperature Change of Air and Sea Water in the World during Last 40 Years World during Last 40 Years 0.4 0.3 0.5 ℃ Change（℃） Rise Temperature 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 1966 71 76 81 86 91 96 2001 (a) Air Temperature 0.4 Change（℃） 0.3 0.3 ℃ Rise Temperature 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 1966 71 76 81 86 91 96 2001 (b) Sea Water Temperature 9
Change of Mean Temperature and Change of Mean Temperature and （ 1976 ～ 2004 ） Rain Falls in Japan （ 1976 ～ 2004 ） Rain Falls in Japan 1.5 Change of Mean 0.7 ℃ Rise Mean Temperature in Japan （a） 1.0 0.5 Temp.（℃） 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 1976 2001 81 86 91 96 1.5 1.0 ℃ Rise (b) Mean Temperature in Tokyo Change of Mean 1.0 0.5 Temp.（℃） 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 1976 81 86 91 96 2001 12 (c) Number of Heavy Rains with 100mm/hour 10 8 Number 6 4 2 0 1976 81 86 91 96 2001 10 （Japan Meteorological Agency）
Regional Ratio of The Numbers of Natural Disasters (1986~) Regional Ratio of The Numbers of Natural Disasters (1986~) (Events with more than 1000 death toll) (Events with more than 1000 death toll) Europe Others 5 ％ 5 ％ 4 ％ （ 42,300 ） Europe （ 3 ） （ 3 ） Others America America 6 ％ 1 ％ 20 ％ （ 62,392 ） （ 6,866 ） （ 11 ） Asia Asia 71 ％ 89 ％ （ 42 ） （ 915,453 ） Number of Events : 59 Number of Death : 1,027,011 11
Increase of Natural Disasters due to the Changes of Increase of Natural Disasters due to the Changes of Natural and Social Environments Natural and Social Environments Increase of Hazards due to Change Change of Natural Environment of Natural Environment ・ Heavy Rain and Snow ・ Global Warming ・ Huge Typhoon , Hurricane and ・ Heat Island of Urbanized Area Cyclone ・ Deforestation ・ Drought ・ Desertification ・ High Temperature ・ Erosion by River and Seashore ・ High Wave and Storm Surge Change of Social Environment ・ Congestion of Urban Area Scale and frequency of natural ・ Depopulation of Rural Area disasters are increasing. ・ Human Habitation on Fragile Ground ・ Lack of Cooperation and Communication among Societies ・ Measures against unexpected ・ Budget Deficit of Central and Rural natural phenomena and external Governments forces largely exceeding design level ・ Implementation of both software ・ Poverty and Low Governance and hardware measures 12
Measures against Huge Natural Disasters Measures against Huge Natural Disasters with Low Probability with Low Probability Natural Disaster Mitigation by Combination Natural Disaster Mitigation by Combination of Hardware and Software Measures of Hardware and Software Measures Huge Disasters with Moderates Disasters with Low Probability Medium Probability Reinforcement of Hardware Hardware Measures Measures External Forces Software Measures 13
Request for Advisory from Minister of Land, Request for Advisory from Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport to SCJ President Infrastructure and Transport to SCJ President － Policies on Infrastructure Development for － Policies on Infrastructure Development for Disaster Mitigation under Global Increase of Disaster Mitigation under Global Increase of Natural Hazards and Vulnerability of Social Natural Hazards and Vulnerability of Social － Circumstances － Circumstances Subjects: Subjects: 1. Forecast of future natural hazards resulting from 1. Forecast of future natural hazards resulting from the changes of global environments. the changes of global environments. 2. Evaluation of hazards in national land ‐ ‐ use use and social 2. Evaluation of hazards in national land and social structures, and evaluation of vulnerability of existing structures, and evaluation of vulnerability of existing infrastructures. infrastructures. 3.Proposals of basic policies and measures for 3.Proposals of basic policies and measures for improvement of national land ‐ ‐ utilization utilization plan and for improvement of national land plan and for development of infrastructures. development of infrastructures. 14
Recommend
More recommend
