Risk, Resilience & Recovery Developing integrated urban and local area data management systems to monitor and measure the related impact of the pandemic on affordable housing and urban development space to facilitate evidence-based decision-making Kecia Rust | 15 September 2020
Overview Aperçu 1. Thinking about Covid-19 & 1. Réflexion sur la Covid-19 et le housing logement 2. What are our data needs? 2. Quels sont nos besoins en 1. Risk matière de données ? 2. Recovery 1. Risque 3. Resilience 2. Recouvrement 3. Way forward 3. Résilience 3. Perspectives d'avenir
Thinking about Covid-19 and housing Réflexion sur la Covid-19 et le logement Economic & Lockdown impact : declining livelihoods, Health impact : risk of infection, managing infection, stigma declining budgets, deferred investments Impact sur la santé: risque d'infection, contraintes dans la gestion de Impact du confinement sur l’économie : baisse des moyens de subsistance, l'infection, stigmatisation baisse des budgets, investissements reportés • Households face: • Health issues: poor access to water & sanitation, limited access to healthcare; • Vue des ménages : Problèmes de santé : accès insuffisant à l'eau et à l'assainissement, accès limité aux soins de santé ; • overcrowding surpopulation • Financial issues: declining capacity to pay rent / mortgage payments, to buy food, Questions financières : diminution de la capacité à payer le loyer/les paiements hypothécaires, à • to pay school fees, etc. acheter de la nourriture, à payer les frais de scolarité, etc. • Resilience issues: savings are being depleted; stigma • Problèmes de résilience : épuisement de l'épargne ; stigmatisation • Businesses (landlords, lenders, builders, etc. both large and small scale) face: Les entreprises (propriétaires, prêteurs, constructeurs, etc., à petite et grande échelle) sont • • Capacity issues: potential impact when workforce cannot come to work – confrontées : whether for health or lockdown Problèmes de capacité : impact potentiel lorsque la main-d'œuvre ne peut pas venir travailler - que ce • soit pour des raisons de santé ou de fermeture • Sustainability issues: difficulty to persist with increasing non-payment, or slowing • Questions de durabilité : difficulté à persister avec l'augmentation des non-paiements ou le approval timeframes ralentissement des délais d'approbation • Growth issues: inability to grow given depressed demand-side, and Problèmes de croissance : incapacité à se développer en raison d'une demande déprimée et de • administrative delays retards administratifs • Cities and governments face: Les villes et les gouvernements sont confrontés : • • Declining revenues as property owners (businesses, landlords, residents) struggle • Baisse des revenus alors que les propriétaires (entreprises, propriétaires, résidents) peinent à respecter leurs obligations to meet obligations Fiscalité nationale restreinte, diminution des subventions conditionnelles • • Constrained national fiscus, decrease in conditional grants Au fil du temps, la base des taux diminue à mesure que la valeur des biens immobiliers baisse • • Over time, declining rates base as property values fall Augmentation des obligations financières et des pressions opérationnelles pour faire face aux • • Rising financial obligations and operational pressures to address vulnerable situations de logement vulnérables housing circumstances Zones en difficulté et établissements de location, où le risque pour les ménages est particulièrement • • Failing areas, and rental institutions, where household risk is particularly high (i.e. élevé (c'est-à-dire les centres-villes) inner cities) Conséquences des mesures extraordinaires et du retour aux activités normales • • The consequences of extraordinary measures and having to get back to normal
Thinking about Covid-19 and housing Réflexion sur la Covid-19 et le logement Our data needs must Quality, affordable housing becomes all be shaped by our plans to address the the more important in a post-Covid risk, to stimulate recovery and to world. We need to do more with less. ensure resilience Nos besoins en données doivent être Un logement abordable et de qualité devient façonnés par nos plans pour faire face d'autant plus important dans un monde post- au risque, stimuler la Covid. Nous devons faire plus avec moins. reprise et assurer la résilience
What are our data needs? Three categories of attention: Quels sont nos besoins en données? Trois catégories d'attention: Addressing RISK Stimulating RECOVERY Ensuring RESILIENCE Access to adequate housing Housing as the key to unlocking Housing as an asset: land, productivity growth, job creation, titling, transactions • Housing quality: affordable housing, and private investment The house as a private asset | Housing sector as a national asset informal settlement upgrading & Social asset | a place in the settlement, an address, effective citizenship infrastructure investment and housing microfinance Economic growth & job Sustainable human creation | backwards and settlements | integrated • Housing mobility: affordable rental forward linkages, impact of with functioning local housing on the economy economies See http://housingfinanceafrica.org/documents/city- See Gardner, D (2018) reports-cape-town-ethekwini-manguang/ http://housingfinanceafrica.org/projects/housing-and-the- economy/ Financial asset | can Economic (income-earning) be traded for money asset | part of a household’s and can be used as economic strategy – backyard security against a loan landlordism or home based entrepreneurialism See http://housingfinanceafrica.org/projects/transaction-support-centre/ See http://housingfinanceafrica.org/projects/housing- entrepreneurs/ Work by Shisaka Development Management Services Financial intermediation | financial sector development, and opportunities for domestic capital investment See http://housingfinanceafrica.org/documents/bringing-life-to-mortgage-markets-in-south-africa/ Work by Illana Melzer & Claire Hayworth 71point4 http://housingfinanceafrica.org/documents/assessing- http://housingfinanceafrica.org/documents/framing- http://housingfinanceafrica.org/resources/yearbook/ nigerias-affordable-housing-market/ concept-understanding-the-housing-asset/ Faire face aux RISQUES Stimuler la RÉCUPÉRATION Assurer la RÉSILIENCE
Addressing risk Fair face aux risques Demand-side focus on housing quality Supply-side focus on value chain & credit health blockages & developer health Housing conditions: roof, walls, floor • Land availability, assembly, titling • Infrastructure needs and capacity • Living conditions: number of sleeping • Housing starts & completions • rooms, density levels Time & cost of statutory approvals • Access to water & sanitation • Cost per unit, cost per m2 / cost outliers • Cooking fuel & power • Maintenance & management capacity: scoping • supply side Credit indebtedness • Non-performing loans by market • Number of developers / builders • segment Development pipeline • Access to construction finance • Accent du côté de l'offre sur les blocages de la Accent du côté de la demande sur la qualité chaîne de valeur et la santé économique des du logement et la santé du crédit développeurs
Addressing risk: we see an enormous need for home improvements. For example, in Nigeria… Aborder le risque: nous constatons un énorme besoin de rénovations des logements. Par exemple, au Nigéria… INADEQUATE URBAN HOUSING (Urban B40 households; 7 million households) Total urban Lagos Abuja (Urban B40; 7 million) (Lagos B40; 1 million) (Abuja B40; 87,000) 5% 93% 52% 29% 84% 31% 70% Percentage of households 43% 40% 34% 35% Overcrowded dwellings that also don’t have 32% 19% sanitation Overcrowded Overcrowded 12% dwellings that dwellings that 4% also don’t have also don’t have sanitation sanitation No flush toilet No flush toilet No flush toilet Potentially Potentially Potentially Overcrowded Overcrowded Overcrowded Informal Inadequate Informal Inadequate Informal Inadequate Notes: a dwelling is considered informal if one of the materials used in its construction is not finished. Households without access to flush sanitation have no waterborne 20 | sewage disposal. A dwelling is overcrowded if the no. of members per sleeping room exceeds 2. Source: DHS Nigeria 2018 Analysis for CAHF by 71point4
Addressing risk: in some countries, NGOs play an important role in informal settlements. For example in South Africa… Faire face aux risques: dans certains pays, les ONG jouent un rôle important dans les logements informels. Par exemple en Afrique du Sud… content/uploads/asivikelane-number-10-metro.pdf Source: https://www.internationalbudget.org/wp-
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