Risk calculation project Jon-Arve Røyset Helsinki, 13.06.2017 – Vi tar ansvar for sjøvegen
Probability system • Establish a long-term data collection for the analysis of AIS data probability of ship accidents in Data export Ship register Norwegian waters Pilot - DNV GL Veracity Accidents DSS,Dama,SD - Data mangement, data quality, harmonization, ... • Trend analysis Safe Seanet, PEC Agr. Reports Geo • Uniform data boundaries Data Data Data Data marts VTS marts marts marts Web and BI- Meteorology presentation Mitigation Environ- measures Spes. Havbas Risk mental analysis e module Supporting risk tables Existing and future models Other – Vi tar ansvar for sjøvegen
Results and deliveries With the help of the system, one can easily provide overviews and reports in relation to: • Ship activity and trends in Norwegian sea areas • Change in ship activity • Probability of accidents and oil spill • Changes in likelihood of accidents and oil spill • Overview of accident types • Use of pilot related to accidents • Everything presented through a common web interface • Develop method report – open risk – Vi tar ansvar for sjøvegen
Risk level trends Stakeholders: NCA, other Norwegian authorities, public? Purpose: To m onitor trends in risk level in Norwegian waters and report as appropriate. Goal: To be able to identify risk level trends as the basis for further analyzes and to take expedient actions if needed. [ LI J1]
KV.B, KV.S, To clearly highlight rate of change in the To be able to easily generate risk maps with NA, Public? risk level based on set criteria main changes - short/long term planning Green – Increased risk Red – Decreased risk Date1 Date 2 2009 2015 Vessel type Risk type Region 2008 2040 2040 7. >= 1. < 1000 2. 1000 - 3. 5000 - 4. 10000 - 5. 25000 - 6. 50000 - 100000 GT 4999 GT 9999 GT 24999 GT 49999 GT 99999 GT GT 01 Oljetankere 1 % 2 % 0 % 1 % 2 % 7 % 0 % 02 Kjemikalie- /produkttankere 1 % -9 % 3 % 7 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 03 Gasstankere 0 % 3 % 1 % 1 % 1 % 0 % 1 % 04 Bulkskip 1 % -3 % -2 % -7 % 1 % 2 % 0 % 05 Stykkgodsskip 1 % 7 % 6 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 06 Konteinerskip 0 % 0 % 4 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 % Vessel type Risk type 07 Ro Ro last 0 % 2 % 2 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 08 Kjøle-/fryseskip 0 % 8 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 09 Passasjer 2 % 8 % 5 % 6 % 4 % 3 % 1 % 2008 2040 2040 10 Offshore supply skip skip 1 % -5 % -7 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 11 Andre offshore service 3 % -1 % 1 % 2 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 12 Andre aktiviteter 2 % 1 % 3 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 13 Fiskefartøy -4 % -4 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % – Vi tar ansvar for sjøvegen
UC-1,9 KV.B, KV.S, To identify the high and low risk for spill areas in To identify the high and low risk for NA, Public? Norwegian waters spill areas in Norwegian waters Vessel type Fuel/Cargo type 2008 2040 – Vi tar ansvar for sjøvegen
UC-1,4 KV.B, KV.S, Monitor trends in reported accidents and present results In order to be able to identify NA, Public? in multiple ways trends and take expedient actions Number of accidents within each cell Vessel type Accident type 2008 2040 – Vi tar ansvar for sjøvegen
UC-1,6 KV.B, KV.S, Monitor trends in reported accidents with oil spill and In order to be able to identify NA, Public? present results in multiple ways trends and take expedient actions Number of accidents with oil spill within each cell / Oil spill volume No./Volume Vessel type Fuel/Cargo type 2008 2040 – Vi tar ansvar for sjøvegen
UC-1,5 KV.B, KV.S, Monitor trends in reported accidents with resulting injury In order to be able to identify NA, Public? or loss of life trends and take expedient actions Number of accidents with resulting injury or loss of life for respective cell Number of accidents with resulting injury or loss of life for region injuries/fatalities Oljetankere Kjemikalie-/produkttankere Gasstankere Bulkskip Stykkgodsskip Konteinerskip Ro Ro last Kjøle-/fryseskip Passasjer Offshore supply skip 2008 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 Andre offshore service skip Andre aktiviteter Number of accidents with resulting injury or loss of life for region Fiskefartøy region injuries/fatalities region 2008 2040 7. >= 1. < 1000 2. 1000 - 3. 5000 - 4. 10000 - 5. 25000 - 6. 50000 - 100000 GT 4999 GT 9999 GT 24999 GT 49999 GT 99999 GT GT 01 Oljetankere 1 % 2 % 0 % 1 % 2 % 7 % 0 % 02 Kjemikalie- /produkttankere 1 % -9 % 3 % 7 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 03 Gasstankere 0 % 3 % 1 % 1 % 1 % 0 % 1 % 04 Bulkskip 1 % -3 % -2 % -7 % 1 % 2 % 0 % 05 Stykkgodsskip 1 % 7 % 6 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 06 Konteinerskip 0 % 0 % 4 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 07 Ro Ro last 0 % 2 % 2 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % Vessel type injuries/fatalities 08 Kjøle-/fryseskip 0 % 8 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 09 Passasjer 2 % 8 % 5 % 6 % 4 % 3 % 1 % 10 Offshore supply skip skip 1 % -5 % -7 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 2008 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 11 Andre offshore service 3 % -1 % 1 % 2 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 2008 2040 12 Andre aktiviteter 2 % 1 % 3 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 13 Fiskefartøy -4 % -4 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % – Vi tar ansvar for sjøvegen
UC-1,7 KV.B, KV.S, Identify the reason for accidents based on ship In order to be able to identify NA, Public? movements and immediate actions trends and take expedient actions 2008 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 Ship losses and causes Number of accidents per cause Grounding Fire Collision Foundering Ice damage ……. … region 2008 2040 Vessel type Cause of accident Loss type 2008 2040 2008 2040 – Vi tar ansvar for sjøvegen
UC-1,11 KV.B, KV.S, To establish an overview of the use of In order to be able to identify NA, Public? pilots/Farledsbevis – connect to voyage trends and take expedient actions Without pilot With pilot Vessel type With Pilot 2008 2040 – Vi tar ansvar for sjøvegen
12 High level risk methodology and focus areas
Single ship calculations • The risk model shall be location-based, i.e. the calculations are carried out individually for each position, such that the results can be defined as functions of position • Based on the recorded position of AIS messages a GIS will be used to draw ship tracks illustrating traffic patterns. Ship tracks are lines drawn between AIS points recorded for each vessel based on the route the vessel has sailed, as shown in the Figure below, and later aggregated within the grid cells for use in the risk calculations. The model aims to operate on a single ship at a time.
14 Work load rating 1 to 6 What have we done so far… 6 1 2 3 4 5 These risk model is influenced by the methodology used in DNV GL’s NavRisk tool, DNV GL’s FARGE project, IALA’s Waterway Risk Assessment (IWRAP tool) and Be-Aware methodology. The essentials of these models have been used to develop the new risk model, but with new innovation and calibration. Innovation – here we want to focus our efforts! Pow ered grounding 6 Drift grounding m odel Collision m odel 6 3 m odel DNV GL ( COW I ) COW I DNV GL Approach: Critical situations Approach: Drift based on metocean Approach: Critical situations (safety data domain/ ellipse) Consequence m odel – Oil Fire/ explosion and Consequence m odel – 1 3 3 foundering m odel outflow Loss of lives DNV GL DNV GL DNV GL Approach: NavRisk + updates Approach: NavRisk (sailed distance) Approach: NavRisk + updates Contact m odel? -- – Vi tar ansvar for sjøvegen
The overall process of calculating risk • The calculation process will be fully automatic, with no manual input for execution. Manual input should only be needed for tool development and updates of parameters • Accident frequencies are calculated for the following types of accidents; grounding (drift- and powered grounding), collision (head-on, overtaking and crossing), fire/explosion and foundering Figure 6-1 High-level illustration of the risk calculation process – Vi tar ansvar for sjøvegen
16 Powered grounding model
General modelling approach for powered grounding • Simplified calculation formula: Number of critical situations x probability of grounding, given that ship is in critical situation (course not changed before impact) • This calculation will primarily be based on the IWRAP method, but the calculation will be done for individual ships, not merged traffic in lanes (which is the case for IWRAP) – Vi tar ansvar for sjøvegen
18 Modelling principle • Requirement: – Automatic calculations, no manual input of legs, waypoints etc. • Powered grounding frequency = Sum of N (Number of critical situations) x Pc (Causation probability) – Pc models the vessels and the officer of the watch’s ability to perform evasive manoeuvres in the event of potential critical situation. – Vi tar ansvar for sjøvegen
19 Powered grounding frequency = Sum of N (Number of critical situations) x Pc (Causation probability) Number of critical situations Type 1 Vessel do not turn - Watch Officer asleep - Technical (rudder/ steering gear) Type 2 Vessel deviation from route - Watch Officer misjudgement (complexity, time etc.) - Current, waves etc. - Evasive manoeuvres to avoid other ship – Vi tar ansvar for sjøvegen
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