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risk: A UK perspective Current status of UK tidal industry - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

May 31, 2023 •145 likes •497 views

Marine mammals, tidal energy and collision risk: A UK perspective Current status of UK tidal industry Consenting decision making framework Deploy and Monitor Adaptive Management Carol Sparling EMEC: UK Tidal Industry

  1. Marine mammals, tidal energy and collision risk: A UK perspective • Current status of UK tidal industry • Consenting decision making framework • Deploy and Monitor • Adaptive Management Carol Sparling

  3. EMEC: • UK Tidal Industry Andritz Hydro Hammerfest • Alstom • Deployed Open Hydro • Scotrenewables Tidal Power • Voith Hydro Strangford Lough • Marine Current Turbines • Minesto • Schottel

  4. EMEC: • UK Tidal Industry UK Tidal Industry Andritz Hydro Hammerfest • Alstom Deployed • Open Hydro • Scotrenewables Tidal Power Consented • Voith Hydro Pentland Firth • Meygen Sound of Islay • Scottish Power Renewables Strangford Lough • Marine Current Turbines • Minesto • Schottel Anglesey Skerries • Marine Current Turbines Ramsey Sound • Tidal Energy Limited

  5. EMEC: • UK Tidal Industry UK Tidal Industry Andritz Hydro Hammerfest • Alstom Deployed • Open Hydro • Scotrenewables Tidal Power Consented • Voith Hydro Pre-consent Pentland Firth • Meygen Sound of Islay • Scottish Power Renewables Strangford Lough • Marine Current Turbines • Minesto • Schottel Anglesey Skerries • Marine Current Turbines Ramsey Sound • Tidal Energy Limited

  6. Marine mammals and collision risk: Encounter probability # collisions Strike probability

  7. Marine mammals and collision risk: Avoidance/ attraction Encounter Depth distribution probability Spatial & temporal distribution # collisions Evasion Strike Turbine characteristics probability Animal characteristics

  8. Marine mammals and collision risk: Speed of strike/part of rotor Avoidance/ Tissue attraction properties/part of body Encounter Depth distribution probability Spatial & temporal distribution Mortality # collisions # deaths probability Evasion Strike Turbine characteristics probability Animal characteristics

  9. Marine mammals and collision risk: A framework Speed of strike/part of rotor Avoidance/ Tissue attraction properties/part of body Encounter Depth distribution probability Spatial & temporal distribution Mortality # collisions # deaths probability Evasion Birth/death Strike Turbine rates characteristics probability Population Animal size/age Population characteristics structure consequences Age/sex ~ collisions Density dependence?

  10. Marine mammals and collision risk: A framework… Speed of ? strike/part of rotor ? Avoidance/ Tissue ? attraction properties/part ? of body Encounter Depth distribution probability Spatial & ? temporal distribution Mortality # collisions # deaths probability ? Evasion ? Birth/death Strike Turbine rates characteristics probability Population ? size/age Animal Population structure characteristics ? consequences Age/sex ~ collisions Density ? dependence?

  11. Marine mammals and collision risk: A UK perspective Conservation legislation driving UK main consenting issues – EC Habitats Directive • Habitat Regulations Assessment (HRA) • European Protected Species (EPS)

  12. Marine mammals and collision risk: A UK perspective Onus is on developers to demonstrate that their project will not have a likely significant effect on the features of a European protected site or on a population of a European Protected Species – difficult to prove a negative!

  13. Marine mammals and collision risk: A UK perspective Uncertainty surrounding risk Can’t Can’t learn consent about risks projects

  14. DEPLOY and MONITOR with ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT

  15. Marine mammals and collision risk: A UK perspective Operation under shutdown

  16. Marine mammals and collision risk: A framework… Speed of strike/part of rotor Avoidance/ Tissue attraction properties/part of body Encounter Depth distribution probability Spatial & temporal distribution Mortality # collisions # deaths probability Evasion Birth/death Strike Turbine rates characteristics probability Population size/age Animal Population structure characteristics consequences Age/sex ~ collisions Density dependence?

  17. Seal tracking in vicinity of operational tidal turbine

  18. Seal tracking in vicinity of operational tidal turbine Macro avoidance?

  19. Seal tracking in vicinity of operational tidal turbine Depth distribution 0 -5 -10 depth (m) -15 -20 -25 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 usage (%)

  20. Licenced trial removal of mitigation with active acoustic monitoring Side view Plan view 40m 70m • Data on passage rates in the presence of an operating turbine (compare these with previously estimated – refine collision risk • Evidence for evasion/avoidance???

  21. Marine mammals and collision risk: A framework… Speed of strike/part of rotor Avoidance/ Tissue attraction properties/part of body Encounter Depth distribution probability Spatial & temporal distribution Mortality # collisions # deaths probability Evasion Birth/death Strike Turbine rates characteristics probability Population Animal size/age Population characteristics structure consequences Age/sex ~ collisions Density dependence?

  22. Near field monitoring at DeltaStream, Ramsey Sound, Wales (TEL project) Passive acoustics – 12 channel hydrophone array for 3D tracking of cetaceans

  23. Near field monitoring at DeltaStream, Ramsey Sound, Wales (TEL project) Passive acoustics – 12 channel hydrophone array for 3D tracking of cetaceans

  24. Near field monitoring at DeltaStream, Ramsey Sound (TEL project) Active acoustic monitoring MULTIBEAM SONAR on RAMP

  25. Scottish Government Demonstration Strategy Project • Develop and test sensor FLOWBEC PIC? technologies – PAM & AAM • Develop analytical tools – 3D PAM tracking & AAM automatic detection, classification and tracking • Deployment at Meygen project Pentland Firth

  26. Marine mammals and collision risk: A framework… Speed of strike/part of rotor Avoidance/ Tissue attraction properties/part of body Depth Encounter distribution probability Spatial & temporal distribution Mortality # collisions # deaths probability Evasion Birth/death Strike Turbine rates characteristics probability Population Animal size/age Population characteristics structure consequences Age/sex ~ collisions Density dependence?

  27. Understanding the consequences of collisions • PNNL strike modelling • SMRU carcass collision trials • X-Med EXtreme Loading of Marine Energy Devices due to Waves, Current, Flotsam and Mammal Impact (Manchester Uni)

  28. Marine mammals and collision risk: A framework… Speed of strike/part of rotor Avoidance/ Tissue attraction properties/part of body Encounter Depth distribution probability Spatial & temporal distribution Mortality # collisions # deaths probability Evasion Birth/death Strike Turbine rates characteristics probability Population Animal size/age Population characteristics structure consequences Age/sex ~ collisions Density dependence?

  29. Understanding the population level consequences of collisions • PBR/threshold approach • Adapted PCoD model (PCoC)

  30. Marine mammals and collision risk: A framework… Speed of strike/part of rotor Tissue Avoidance properties/part of body Encounter Depth distribution probability Spatial & temporal distribution Mortality # collisions # deaths probability Evasion Birth/death Strike Turbine rates characteristics probability Population size/age Animal Population structure characteristics consequences Age/sex ~ collisions Density dependence?

  31. Verifying predictions….. • Collision-o-meter???

  32. Marine mammals and collision risk: UK lessons learned… • Site selection important to manage out risks • Deploy and monitor, and monitor and monitor: de-risk at early stage of industry • Don’t be too quick to mitigate (but develop mitigation approaches in parallel and be prepared to) • Design and integrate monitoring early

  33. Marine mammals and collision risk: UK lessons learned… COLLABORATION IS KEY TO SUCCESFUL PROGRESS UNDER UNCERTAINTY • Developers, regulators, conservation agencies, academia working together and learning together

  34. Thanks to… Sea Mammal Research Unit Marine Current Turbines Tidal Energy Limited MeyGen Scottish Government Northern Ireland Dept of Environment Marine Division Natural Resources Wales Royal Haskoning DHV Department of Energy and Climate Change

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