Rethinking the value of advanced maths participation Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins, University of Nottingham http://www.revamp-nottingham.org andy.noyes@nottingham.ac.uk
Outline Political value: tracking the policy discourse surrounding the 10% May 13, 2015 REVAMP Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) Future research avenues Perceived value: End user attitudes to post-16 mathematics 1 In progress premium 4 Project rationale Chemistry degree outcomes Academic value: The role of A level mathematics in Biology and 3 Valued by: Completion of A level mathematics 2 Economic value: Wage premiums from A level mathematics at age 34 1 Major findings 2 / 39
Project Rationale The level of participation in advanced mathematics courses has been raising concerns for several years. Recent international comparisons show England to have one of the lowest levels of post-16 mathematics engagement. This, together with sustained pressure from stakeholders, has led to the Secretary of State’s call for most young people to be studying mathematics up to 18 by the end of the decade. REVAMP weaves together four strands of quantitative analysis and one qualitative policy analysis strand to understand the current and changing attitudes to, participation in, and value of A level mathematics. Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) REVAMP May 13, 2015 3 / 39
REVAMP Work Packages the economic and other value discourses since Curriculum 2000? May 13, 2015 REVAMP Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) choices and aspirations? mathematical study and how does it relate to their current and future WP5: What do 17 year olds think is the value of post-16 advanced WP4: How have mathematics education reports/policy/etc, taken up Research questions attainment and degree outcomes? WP3: What is the relationship between A level participation and etc? participation patterns changed; by social category, by school type, WP2: Who is doing A level Mathematics now? How have Vignoles’ findings hold in more recent datasets? WP1: Is there still a ‘return’ to A level mathematics? Do Dolton and 4 / 39
Work Package 1: Economic Value Background: Economic Return to Maths Discourse Liz Truss(18th September 2013), Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Education and Childcare, argued that ”Maths, for example, is the only school subject which has been proven to add to earnings, by up to 10% at A level , even when every other factor is taken into account. earning 7% more at the age of 30 . Those working in professions...” (CBI talk on improving education and curriculum reform) Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) REVAMP May 13, 2015 5 / 39 Pupils who are ahead of their peers in maths at age 10 tend to be science or technological careers are paid, on average, 19% more than other
Work Package 1: Economic Value Economic Return to Maths Discourse Nick Gibb (10th September 2014) and Nicky Morgan (10th November 2014) have continued this argument: event) ”And yet maths, as we all know, is the subject that employers value most, helping young people develop skills which are vital to almost any career. And you don’t just have to take my word for it - studies show that pupils who study maths to A level will earn 10% more over their lifetime ” (Your Life Campaign Launch). Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) REVAMP May 13, 2015 6 / 39 ”Those who do Maths A level will go on to earn 10% more” (IET Skills
Work Package 1: Economic Value be in full or part-time work. May 13, 2015 REVAMP Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) equations. missing data through the technique of multiple imputation chained power since the original study, we chose improve the handling of Multiple Imputation: Given the vast improvements in computing part in one adult wave of the BCS, completed at least one A level and Approach in 2004. Selection criteria is that each individual must have taken Sample: 2027 male and female respondents born in 1970 and age 34 demographic, education, work experience and ability score predictors. (age 10) to estimate average earnings conditional on a range of education data from wave 6 (age 30) and ability scores from wave 3 Data: We used the British Cohort Study wave 7 (age 34) along with Do Dolton and Vignoles’ findings hold in more recent datasets? Research question: Is there still a ‘return’ to A level mathematics? 7 / 39
Work Package 1: Economic Value Repeat study econometric model May 13, 2015 REVAMP Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) i 8 / 39 ( log ) y i = α + β Female i + β Married i + β Children i + β Managerial − Technical i 1 2 3 4 + β Skilled _ Non − Manual i + β Skilled − Manual i + β Part − Skilled i + β Unskilled i 5 6 7 8 + β Others i + β East _ Mids i + β East _ England i + β North _ East i 9 10 11 12 + β North _ West i + β South _ East i + β South _ West i + β West _ Mids i 13 14 15 16 + β Yorkshire i + β Scotland i + β Wales i + β Degree i + β NVQ i + β Prof i 17 18 19 20 21 22 + β HE _ Diploma i + β Maths & Computing i + β Science i + β Humanities i 23 24 25 26 + β Work _ Exp 2 + β Social _ science i + β Other i + β Part _ time i + β Work _ Exp i 27 28 29 30 31 + β Age 10 _ Maths i + β Age 10 _ Reading i + β Tenure i + β Unemployment i + ε i 32 33 34 35 ε i ∼ N (0 , σ 2 )
Work Package 1: Economic value Data level Model 5 Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) REVAMP May 13, 2015 9 / 39
Work Package 1: Economic value Data level Model 6 Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) REVAMP May 13, 2015 10 / 39
Work Package 1: Economic value Covariates vs. Log of earnings Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) REVAMP May 13, 2015 11 / 39
Work Package 1: Economic value Predictions Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) REVAMP May 13, 2015 12 / 39
Work Package 1: Economic value Predictions May 13, 2015 REVAMP Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) Scenario 2 : Predicted difference using model six between women with and without Maths and Computing A level is £4550. Scenario 2 : Predicted difference using model six between men with and without Scenario 2 : Predicted difference using model five between women with and Maths and Computing A level is £5500. Scenario 2 : Predicted difference using model five between men with and without Computing A level is £15200 and £11000. Scenario 1 : Predicted difference between men and women with Maths and unemployment time, current tenure and ability scores. A-level, humanities A-level and a social science A-level, has average work experience, least one child, works in a full-time professional job in London, as a degree, a science an A-level in mathematics and computing. This proposed individual is married, has at scenario looks at specific differences in earnings when an individual has or does not have experience, unemployment time, current tenure, and age 10 ability scores. Our second mathematics and computing A-level. This individual has below average scores for work has at least one child, works a full-time professional job in London, has a degree and a Our first scenario looks at the gender differences based on an individual that is married, 13 / 39 without Maths and Computing A level is £6400. Maths and Computing A level is £4160.
Work Package 2: Valued by Background: In December 2012, the Advisory Committee on Mathematics Education (ACME) launched their strategy to tackle mathematics provision and participation. In the foreword, Professor Stephen Sparks noted the numbers studying AS and A level mathematics have been rising steadily (after the drop in participation post Curriculum 2000), along with numbers studying AS and A level Further Mathematics. However, at least 250,000 achieving a grade in GCSE mathematics choose not to study any maths after GCSE. Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) REVAMP May 13, 2015 14 / 39
Work Package 2: Valued by Approach: Research question: Who is doing A level Mathematics now? How have participation patterns changed; by social category, by school type, etc? Data: Using the National Pupil Database, we took a cohort based approach and followed the 2002/3 to 2009/10 year groups from their KS4 results to their KS5 A level outcomes from 2003/4 to 2012/13 linking datasets through the unique anonymous pupil identification number. This was cleaned extensively over several months. Sample: We are using data from the entire population. The multilevel model paper focuses on the population in London schools. Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) REVAMP May 13, 2015 15 / 39
Work Package 2: Valued by Descriptives Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) REVAMP May 13, 2015 16 / 39
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