Research and esearch and d development evelopment R in connection with climate change in connection with climate change at Hungarian Meteorological Service at Hungarian Meteorological Service Zoltá án Dunkel dr. n Dunkel dr. Zolt President of Hungarian Meteorological Service President of Hungarian Meteorological Service dunkel.z@ met.hu dunkel.z@ met.hu
Analysis of observed tendencies Analysis of observed tendencies � - On the base of homogenized daily data series for temperature and precipitation: 1901- 2010 � - Analysis of mean parameters and climate extremes
Annual temperature averages and temperature averages and Annual the fitted trends to the period 1901- - the fitted trends to the period 1901 2010 and 1981- - 2010 2010 2010 and 1981 Observed temperature changes ° C year spring summer autumn winter 1901 ‐ 2010 0.98 1.1 1.2 0.65 0.64 1981 ‐ 2010 1.17 1.3 1.7 0.66 0.8 Sinificant changes are bolded
Annual precipitation sum Annual precipitation sum and the fitted trends to the period and the fitted trends to the period 1901- - 2010 2010 1901 Observed precipitation changes % year spring summer autumn winter 1901 ‐ 2010 ‐ 5% ‐ 17% 11% ‐ 14% 1% 1981 ‐ 2010 25% 13% 36% 30% 12% Sinificant changes are bolded
Change of the annual temperature Change of the annual temperature and precipitation and precipitation Change of the temperature, 1980-2009 Change of the precipitation, 1960-2009 1.06 ° C 1.52 ° C 2.07 ° C -22.00% -1.70% 21.00% min mean max min mean max
Extreme climate indices: Extreme climate indices: observed changes 1901- - 2009 2009 observed changes 1901 Temperature Precipitation 45 160 40 Frost days: Trend= -1 days/decade 35 140 % of wet days: Tmin < 0 ° C 30 120 daily precipitation > 1 mm 25 20 100 15 80 10 5 Trend= -0.4% /decade 60 0 40 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 140 11 Summer days: Simple daily intensity: 10 120 Tmax > 25 ° C precipitation sum/number 9 100 8 of wet days 80 7 60 6 40 5 Summer 20 Trend= 0.8days/decade 4 Trend=0.12 mm/decade 0 3 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 Warm nights: 50 6 Tmin > 20 ° C Trend= 0.1 days/decade Maximum number of 45 5 consecutive days 40 4 35 when the daily 3 30 precipitation < 1 25 2 mm 20 1 15 Trend=0.4days/decade 0 10 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
Climate modelling Climate modelling � Two models: Two models: � ALADIN-Climate REMO Period 1961–2100 1951–2100 10 km and 31 25 km and 20 Resolution levels levels Scenario A1B A1B
Changes in temperature Changes in temperature Annual mean, reference period 1961- - 1990 1990 Annual mean, reference period 1961 ALADIN- Climate REMO 2021- 2050 2071- 2100 1.4- 1.9 ° C 3.5- 3.9 ° C Significant changes: Warming in each seasons, most effective in summer and autumn Increasing number of heat days, hot days and heat waves
Changes in precipitation Changes in precipitation Annual sum, reference period 1961- - 1990 1990 Annual sum, reference period 1961 ALADIN- Climate REMO 2021- 2050 2071- 2100 (- 1)- 0% (- 5)- (+ 3)% Not significant changes in general Greater uncertainty than at the temperature Change within the year Summer: increacing, other seasons: depend on the models Increasing intensity (significant for 2071–2100) Increasing number of the consecutive dry days for 2071- 2100
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