Rafael Popper Scientific Director & Project Leader University - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

horizon scanning www.iknowfutures.eu 2.0 Rafael Popper Scientific Director & Project Leader University of Manchester www.iknowfutures.eu socio-economic sciences and humanities research

horizon scanning About iKNOW 2.0 Aim • To elucidate and examine events and developments potentially shaping or shaking the future of science, technology and innovation in the Europe and the world Objectives • To develop and pilot conceptual and methodological frameworks – to identify, classify, cluster & analyse wild cards & weak signals (WI-WE) • To assess selected WI-WE’s – implications for, and expected impact on • science, technology and innovation (STI) – relevance for key dimensions of European research & technology development : • Researchers mobility • Research infrastructures • Research institutions • Knowledge sharing • Joint Programming (research programmes and priorities) • International S&T cooperation

� ����� logic month WP2: State of the art, literature review on WP1 1 Weak Signals and Wild Cards (WI-WE) C O WP4: EU & International views WP 3 Characterisation of WI-WE O 1 Cross-national Delphi survey R 50 (telephone) interviews WI-WE Bank WI-WE Bulletins D I Thematic areas N FP7 WP5: National & Regional views Researchers A Themes Four country surveys T (2 FP7 themes per country, Research Infrastructures month I implications on 6 ERA dimensions) 15 O Research Institutions N Research Progr. & Prior. T WP6: National Multi-Method ERA & Workshops Dimensions Knowledge Sharing I M Internationalisation FI UK CZ GE A M N A WP8: Developing and piloting tools and applications E G (iKnow Multi-Module Web-Environment & Community ) WP7: writing case studies • Wi-We Bank: using Web 2.0 approaches and tools E • Wi-We Scan: WI-WE scanning & search system M CZ FI GE UK IL (including WI-WE clustering and visualisation) E N month T WP9: Disseminating & Interconnecting Knowledge 30

horizon scanning What are we scanning? 2.0 (WI) Wild Cards WI-WE can be… – situations/events with perceived low probability of occurrence but DESIRABLE potentially high impact if they were to occur. (WE) Weak Signals MIXED/ – unclear observables warning us UNCERTAIN about the probability of future events (including Wild Cards). They implore us to consider alternative interpretations of UNDESIRABLE an issue’s evolution to gauge its potential impact.

horizon scanning information collection (1/5) 2.0 • ILTD Inward-Looking Top-Down » 6 iKNOW Consortium » Over 2,000 EU-funded research projects • OLBU Outward-Looking Bottom-Up » iKNOW Community (Policy-makers; Decision- makers, Researchers and Foresight practitioners » Different knowledge sources • ILBU Inward-Looking Bottom-Up • OLTD Outward-Looking Top-Down

horizon scanning information collection (2/5) 2.0 1. iKNOW Consortium (ILTD scanning) 2. iKNOW Community (OLBU scanning) 3. Wi-We Bank (iKNOW Library) 4. Interviews – S&T experts, ERA experts, Foresighters 5. Workshops (UK, FI, CZ, GE, BE, …) 6. Surveys (e.g. OII’s Future Internet Delphi) 7. WI-WE Delphi Survey 8. Mapping Foresight Environment – European Foresight Platform (former EFMN)

horizon scanning Wi-We Bank (iKNOW Library) 2.0 1 Type of event

horizon scanning Wi-We Bank (iKNOW Library) 2.0 2 Characterization

horizon scanning Wi-We Bank (iKNOW Library) 2.0 3 Systems + Desirability

horizon scanning Wi-We Bank (iKNOW Library) 2.0 4 importance

horizon scanning information collection (3/5) 2.0 Interviews • Foresight • S&T • ERA How many? • around 50

horizon scanning information collection (4/5) 2.0 iKNOW workshops Thematic experts • Peter Ellwood (UK) • Fiona Lickorish (UK) • John Reynolds (UK) • John Turnpenny (UK) • Martin Fatun (CZ) A facilitator • Yanuar Nugroho (UK) A rapporteur • David Cain (UK) A supervisor • Rafael Popper (UK)

horizon scanning information collection (5/5) 2.0 iKNOW workshops 18 to 20 ‘wild’ situations • Wild features / factors • Interpretations • Impacts • Actors • Actions* • (Weak) Signals Actions / Recommendations • Policy • Business • Research

Freedom of Information campaigners won a High F 1 Court case to get MPs claims released after years of ������������������������ ������������������������ ������������������������ ������������������������ battling Commons authorities �������� ������������������������� ������������������������� ������������������������� ������������������������� Leaked information (CD): expenses claims were F 2 ! ! ! ! published by the Daily Telegraph �������������������������������� MPs ‘fraudulent’ claims (e.g. an adult film, mortgages F 3 on homes that relatives live in, paying too much to ������� ������� ������� ������� relatives from public funds, etc) global Media Frenzy: MPs' expenses making headlines for F 4 nearly two years european european 1 A 2 3 4 A A A Complete and meaningful reform need national national i 1 387 recommendations in BBC’s �������� �������� �������� �������� ���� ����� ��������� �������� ���� ���� � � �������� �������� Have Your Say on MP expenses 50% of MPs are corrupt i 2 316 recommendations in BBC’s i Have Your Say on MP expenses P F 4 Sir Thomas Legg’s interpretation: "vague rules" and a i 3 "culture of deference" surrounds MPs' expenses im 2 L im 1 F 3 Public distrust in MPs has mounted E D im 2 New rules for MP expenses F 2 im 1 G Freedom of Daily Telegraph / A 1 A 3 Information E Media 1 campaigners F S A 2 A 4 High Court MPS ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� ��������������� �������� �������� �������� �������� Ac 1 Sir Thomas Legg’s audit of MPs' expenses Ac 1 Ac 2 i 1 i 2 i 3 The Director of Public Prosecutions Ac 2 announces that 3 MPs and 1 peer will face criminal charges over their expense claims

horizon scanning methodological filters 2.0 2009 Space 2010 Space interviews interviews Etc. social networks blogs scientific journals

horizon scanning knowledge filters 2.0 prospective strategic expert research workshops projects science fiction ? books journal articles critical surveys iKNOW media interviews logical sources common sense social blogs children networks workshops ? intuitive unfamiliar familiar knowledgeable expert

horizon scanning manifestation & perception filters 2.0

horizon scanning information retrieval filters 2.0 inspired by (source) + related to (impact) filters keyword + issue type filters

horizon scanning cognitive filters 2.0 emerging / new WE WI issues level of uncertainty re-emerging WI WE WI interpretation assessment issues WE WI resolution issues WI WE discontinuation issues WE WI WI WI continuation issues past future

Interpretations are really important McArthur's Universal Corrective Map of the World South North