q3 fy 2009
play

Q3, FY 2009 2 Agenda Global Outlook % Fall in Baltic dry and - PDF document

Q3, FY 2009 2 Agenda Global Outlook % Fall in Baltic dry and Commodity Indices (Oct-Dec 08) Unemployment rate GDP Growth Est. for 2009 (% of total labor force) (% change) 2009 to be a year of Challenges 3 Source: IMF/Bloomberg/ UN report on


  1. Q3, FY 2009

  2. 2 Agenda

  3. Global Outlook % Fall in Baltic dry and Commodity Indices (Oct-Dec 08) Unemployment rate GDP Growth Est. for 2009 (% of total labor force) (% change) 2009 to be a year of Challenges 3 Source: IMF/Bloomberg/ UN report on WESP 2009

  4. Global Economy Emerging market sovereign bond spread TED Spread (%) bps TED spread is the difference between the interest rates on interbank loans and short term U.S. government debt ("T-bills"). IIP growth still positive for India and China Central Banks Have Responded With Coordinated Global Rate Cuts % YoY (Nov/Dec08) (%) Glimmers of Hope: Improving liquidity, risk appetite, reduced interest rates and +ve IIP growth for Chindia 4 Source: Bloomberg, IMF, Fxstreet.com

  5. Economic Stimulus package - Worldwide Total Stimulus Package amounts to ~ 2.6% of World GDP & more tranches could follow 5

  6. 6 Steel Scenario

  7. Apparent steel demand to recover Fall in Steel Prices Supply side Correction ($/ton) > 50% from the peak level 30% fall from the peak level 30% 55% 51% 55% World crude steel production 2008 (MnT) China : Dealer Inventories and HRC Prices Demand seems to recover in China 0,000 tonnes RMB/t China: Crude steel production (Mnt) Supply side measures, Steel price correction & bottoming out inventory set the stage for demand improvement 7 Source: IISI/SBB/Mysteel

  8. Margins poised to improve Raw Material spot prices Price fall arrested ($/ton) $/ton 55% 63% 65% 60% 50% Iron ore contract prices Coking coal contract prices ($/ton) ($/ton) Fall in spot raw material prices, expected correction in contract prices & arrest of finished steel price decline to improve margins for steel companies. 8 Source: IISI/SBB/Bloomberg

  9. INDIA: Govt. Measures (Oct-Dec08) Govt. takes proactive measures to support steel industry 9

  10. India: Steel Demand-Supply Scenario Crude Steel Production (MnT) Imports of finished steel (Mnt) Exports of finished steel (Mnt) Apparent Finished Steel Consumption (Mnt) Declining attractiveness of import will lead to higher demand for Indigenous steel 10 Source: IISI/JPC

  11. 11 highlights… Performance

  12. Highlights – Q3 FY09 (YoY) Particulars Q3 Particulars Q3 Volume : Crude Steel Production Volume : Crude Steel Production ‐ 18 % ‐ 18 % : Saleable Steel : Saleable Steel ‐ 18 % ‐ 18 % Net Sales Net Sales ‐ 1 % ‐ 1 % Blended : Sales Blended : Sales Realisation Realisation 16 % 16 % : Cost of Production 51 % : Cost of Production 51 % EBITDA Margin EBITDA Margin 15.3 % 15.3 % EBITDA before exceptional items EBITDA before exceptional items Rs. 433 Cr. Rs . 433 Cr. Forex Loss Loss Forex Rs. (177) Cr. Rs . (177) Cr. Net Profit / (Loss) Net Profit / (Loss) Rs. (128) Cr. Rs . (128) Cr. Weighted Avg. Cost of Borrowing 8.29% 12

  13. Production – Q3 FY09 ‐ 17% ‐ 14% 0% + 20% YoY % QoQ % YoY % QoQ % ‐ 18% ‐ 22% Q3 '08, Q3 '09, 0.8 0.085 Q3 '08, 0.082 0.082 YoY % QoQ % Q2 '09, 0.746 0.75 0.08 1.2 0.723 Q2 '09, 0.7 0.075 Q3 '08, Q2 '09, 1.001 Q3 '09, 0.956 1 0.069 0.65 0.07 0.622 Q3 '09, 0.6 0.065 0.782 0.8 0.55 0.06 Rolled : Long Rolled : Flat 0.6 + 23% + 19% + 4% + 25% YoY % QoQ % YoY % QoQ % 0.4 Q3 '09, 0.3 0.25 Q3 '09, Q3 '08, 0.266 Q2 '09, Q3 '08, 0.197 0.19 0.25 0.223 Q2 '09, 0.216 0.2 0.2 0.157 0.2 0.15 0.15 0.1 0 0.1 0.05 Crude Steel 0.05 0 0 CR / CRCA GI / GL All fig. in Million Tonnes 13

  14. Saleable Steel Sales – Q3 FY09 ‐ 32% ‐ 10% + 14% + 52% YoY % QoQ % YoY % QoQ % ‐ 18% ‐ 15% Q3 '09, Q3 '08, 0.6 0.09 Q3 '08, 0.079 YoY % QoQ % 0.487 0.08 0.069 0.5 Q2 '09, 1 0.07 Q2 '09, Q3 '09, Q3 '08, 0.367 0.4 0.06 0.052 Q2 '09, 0.331 0.867 0.9 0.05 0.837 0.3 0.04 Q3 '09, 0.8 0.2 0.03 0.711 0.02 0.7 0.1 0.01 0 0 0.6 Rolled : Long HR Coils & Plates 0.5 ‐ 34% ‐ 70% + 9% + 12% 0.4 YoY % QoQ % YoY % QoQ % Q3 '09, Q2 '09, 0.25 0.245 0.3 0.241 0.203 0.24 0.2 0.235 0.2 0.23 Q3 '08, 0.15 Q3 '08, 0.225 0.1 0.22 Q2 '09, 0.091 0.22 Q3 '09, 0.215 0.1 0 0.215 0.06 0.21 0.05 Total Sales 0.205 0 0.2 Semis Value Added (CR/GI/PPGI) All fig. in Million Tonnes 14

  15. Sales Realisation v/s Cost of Production – Q3 FY09 + 51% ‐ 14% + 16% ‐ 25% YoY % QoQ % YoY % QoQ % 20,653 31,193 36,198 Q2 '09, 50000 46569 40000 FX Loss, 45000 2577 FX Loss, 35000 1747 40000 Q3 '09, 34946 30000 Q3 '08, 35000 30230 25000 30000 20000 25000 Cost, Cost, 33621 15000 20000 29446 Cost, 10000 15000 20832 5000 10000 0 5000 FX Gain, FX Loss, ‐ 179 0 ‐ 5000 Q3 '08 Q3 '09 Q2 '09 Blended Realisation (Rs. / t) Blended Cost (Rs. / t) 15

  16. Iron Ore Price Movements – Q3 FY09 ‐ 52 % ‐ 63 % YoY % QoQ % Rs./Ton 3000 Q2 '09, 2665 2500 Q3 '08, QoQ YoY 2042 Rs / t cs 3,693 1,705 3,693 1,705 2000 Total (Rs Cr) 212 212 133 133 1500 Q3 '09, 982 1000 Q3 ’08 Q3 ’09 Q2 ’09 China FOB ($) 185 185 75 75 159 159 500 % Change ‐ ‐ 59 % 59 % ‐ ‐ 53 % 53 % 0 16

  17. Operating Parameters (Vijayanagar) – Q3 FY09 ‐ 8% ‐ 2% Own Bought 100% YoY % QoQ % 5.80% MT / t 90% Q3 '08, 33.70% 690 80% Cost Impact Cost Impact 45.48% 680 680 70% 60% 670 QoQ YoY QoQ YoY 50% 660 94.20% Rs per 1,368 1,816 Rs per 527 527 1,006 1,006 Q2 '09, 40% t cs 650 t cs 66.30% Q3 '09, 637 30% 640 54.52% Total 91.38 121.3 628 Total 35.20 35.20 67.20 67.20 20% (Rs Cr) 630 (Rs Cr) 10% 620 0% 610 Q3 '08 Q3 '09 Q2 '09 600 Fuel – Blast Furnace Coke Consumption + 1% ‐ 9% + 79% + 31% M 3 / t YoY % QoQ % YoY % QoQ % of LS Kg / t Cost Impact Cost Impact Q2 '09, Q3 '09, 350 140 340 118 QoQ YoY 340 120 QoQ YoY Q2 '09, 90 330 100 Rs per 8 8 (1) (1) Rs per 59 59 49 49 Q3 '08, Q3 '09, t cs 320 Q3 '08, 80 t cs 66 309 306 310 60 Total 0.53 0.53 (0.07) (0.07) Total 3.94 3.94 3.27 3.27 (Rs Cr) (Rs Cr) 300 40 290 20 280 0 Fluxes Consumption Sinter + Bfc LD Gas Recovery 17

  18. Standalone Financials – Q3 FY09 Rs. Cr. Q3 FY 09 Q3 FY 08 Turnover 3,055.34 3,108.43 EBITDA before exceptional items 433.48 817.43 EBITDA Margin 15.3 % 29.0 % EBITDA 256.65 831.39 Cash Profit 200.18 700.94 Profit Before Tax (190.72) 510.82 Net Profit (127.50) 355.37 EPS : Diluted (8.93) 18.53 18

  19. Subsidiary Subsidiary Subsidiary Subsidiary Performance Performance Performance Performance 19

  20. Operational Performance - USA PRODUCTION (NT) SALES (NT) Q3 FY 09 YTD Dec’08 Q3 FY 09 YTD Dec’08 Plate Mill 47,487 299,630 27,660 172,875 Pipe Mill 27,198 128,560 28,550 133,566 20

  21. Financial Performance - USA $ Mio Particulars Q3 FY 09 YTD Dec’08 Turnover 87.93 470.61 EBITDA + Other Income 14.89 89.51 16.93 % 19.02 % Cash Profit 3.13 56.48 Profit Before Tax (5.18) 31.94 Profit After Tax (2.78) 24.14 21

  22. Financials Q3 FY 09 Rs. Cr. JSW Steel Ltd JSW Steel Ltd Particulars (Standalone) (Consolidated) Total Income 2,826.74 3,319.11 EBITDA before exceptional items 433.48 505.45 Cash Profit 200.18 175.26 Profit Before Tax (190.72) (265.30) Profit After Tax (127.50) (187.83) 22

  23. Adj Long Term Debt Gearing - Standalone Rs. Cr. Adj Long Term Debt & Networth 11,000 9,713 9,713 Rs. Cr. X 9,476 538 10000 538 8,597 426 FX Loss 3 9,000 118 8000 7,249 2.73 2.5 3,944 7,000 FCL 2.37 2 2.15 6000 3,944 2.04 3,978 5,000 3,999 7,990 1.5 3,264 4000 3,000 1.2 1 RTL 5,231 1.15 1.02 0.93 2000 1,000 0.5 4,068 4,480 5,073 5,231 Adj LT Debt Networth (1,000) 0 0 ‐ 83 Standalone Gearing of 1.20 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 ‐ 0.5 Q4 ’08 Q1 ’09 Q2 ’09 Q3 ’09 ‐ 2000 D:E Adj LT Debt/EBITDA RTL FCL FX LOSS Wt Avg Cost of Debt (%) 7.59 7.63 8.35 8.29 FD & MF (Rs. Cr.) 106 635 206 90 23

  24. Adj Long Term Debt Gearing ‐ Consolidated Adj Long Term Debt & Networth 15,000 X 1,289 14,153 13,844 15000 FX Loss 4.5 1,289 13,000 12,838 1,064 11,271 458 4 13000 11,000 3.5 Rs. Cr. FCL 11000 7,563 3.54 Rs. Cr. 9,000 3 3.17 3.07 9000 3.03 7,000 2.5 7,650 7,563 7,864 7,204 7000 5,000 2 8,049 5000 3,000 1.5 1.75 RTL 1.66 1.52 5,301 1.42 1 1,000 3000 0.5 Adj LT Debt Networth (1,000) 1000 4,096 4,515 5,130 5,301 Consolidated Gearing of 1.75 0 (29) ‐ 1000 Q4 ’08 Q1 ’09 Q2 ’09 Q3 ’09 ‐ 0.5 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Wt Avg Cost of Debt (%) 7.02 7.03 7.42 7.42 RTL FCL FX LOSS D:E Adj LT Debt/EBITDA FD & MF (Rs. Cr.) 106 635 206 90 24

  25. 25 Project Commissioning Schedule Schedule Revised Schedule Original Projects Major

  26. Focus : Rural-Market … Coated Products Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 DOMESTIC 42% Green-Revolution ~ Rural prosperity 39% Q-3, 2008-09 F O C U S Domestic Sales up 35% + 14% Y-o-Y Rural-Marketing 34% 34% 33% Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 F.Y. 2007-08 F.Y. 2008-09 EXPORTS Global-Integration ~ Exports 67% 66% 66% 65% F O C U S Strategic 61% 58% Q-1 Q-2 Q-3 Ref. : JSW Steel Limited 26

Recommend


More recommend