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Q3 05 RISK REVIEW Investor Community Conference Call BOB - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Q3 05 RISK REVIEW Investor Community Conference Call BOB McGLASHAN Executive Vice-President and Chief Risk Officer AUGUST 23 05 0 R I S K R E V I E W T H I R D Q U A R T E R 2 0 0 5 FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS CAUTION

  1. Q3 05 RISK REVIEW Investor Community Conference Call BOB McGLASHAN Executive Vice-President and Chief Risk Officer AUGUST 23 • 05 0

  2. R I S K R E V I E W – T H I R D Q U A R T E R 2 0 0 5 FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS CAUTION REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Bank of Montreal's public communications often include written or oral forward-looking statements. Statements of this type are included in this presentation, and may be included in filings with Canadian securities regulators or the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, or in other communications. All such statements are made pursuant to the 'safe harbor' provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements may involve, but are not limited to, comments with respect to our objectives for 2005 and beyond, our strategies or future actions, our targets, expectations for our financial condition or share price, and the results of or outlook for our operations or for the Canadian and U.S. economies. By their nature, forward-looking statements require us to make assumptions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. There is significant risk that predictions and other forward-looking statements will not prove to be accurate. We caution readers of this document not to place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements as a number of factors could cause actual future results, conditions, actions or events to differ materially from the targets, expectations, estimates or intentions expressed in the forward-looking statements. The future outcomes that relate to forward-looking statements may be influenced by many factors, including but not limited to: global capital market activities; interest rate and currency value fluctuations; the effects of war or terrorist activities; the effects of disease or illness that impact on local, national or international economies; the effects of disruptions to public infrastructure, such as transportation, communications, power or water supply disruptions; industry and worldwide economic and political conditions; regulatory and statutory developments; the effects of competition in the geographic and business areas in which we operate; management actions; and technological changes. We caution that the foregoing list of factors is not exhaustive and that when relying on forward-looking statements to make decisions with respect to Bank of Montreal, investors and others should carefully consider these factors, as well as other uncertainties and potential events, and the inherent uncertainty of forward-looking statements. Bank of Montreal does not undertake to update any forward-looking statement, whether written or oral, that may be made, from time to time, by the organization or on its behalf. 1

  3. R I S K R E V I E W – T H I R D Q U A R T E R 2 0 0 5 STRONG CREDIT PERFORMANCE Continues in Q3 F2005 Credit And Counterparty Risk Highlights (Q/Q) � Gross Impaired Loan (GIL) Formations for the GIL Formations quarter decreased $47 million $91 million 34% � GILs down $120 million for the quarter to their lowest levels since F2000 GIL Balance $932 million 11% � There was no change in the General Allowance Specific Provision for � Specific Provision of Credit Losses (PCL) is up $27 Credit Losses (PCL) million $73 million 59% � Specific PCL guidance for F2005 remains at $275 million or less, reflecting a stable credit environment and YTD specific PCL of $162 million 2

  4. R I S K R E V I E W – T H I R D Q U A R T E R 2 0 0 5 CREDIT QUALITY REMAINED STABLE Reflected in continued low GIL formations GIL Formations (C$ Million) and balances Quarterly 242 GROSS IMPAIRED LOANS 190 138 (C$ Million) 109 89 91 66 2,014 2,337 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 1,918 Annual 1,501 1,119 1,089 1,052 2,041 932 1,945 1,303 1,106 607 138 89 91 00 01 02 03 04 Q1 Q2 Q3 05 05 05 F00 F01 F02 F03 F04 Q1 Q2 Q3 05 05 05 3

  5. R I S K R E V I E W – T H I R D Q U A R T E R 2 0 0 5 STRONG PCL PERFORMANCE CONTINUES Total Provision For Credit Q3 results reflect a stable credit environment Losses (PCL) Quarterly Provision for Credit Losses (C$ Million) (C$ Million) Portfolio Segment Q3 05 Q2 05 Q3 04 Consumer 49 64 43 73 Commercial 11 11 9 55 45 46 43 37 (40) (40) (40) (40) Corporate 13 (29) (122) (50) (70) Specific Provisions 73 46 (70) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Reduction of General - (40) (40) 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 Allowance Total PCL 73 6 (110) Specific PCL as a % of Avg Specific PCL General PCL Net Loans & Acceptances (incl. Reverse Repos)* 17 bps 11 bps (18) bps * Annualized 4

  6. R I S K R E V I E W – T H I R D Q U A R T E R 2 0 0 5 NEW SPECIFIC PROVISIONS REMAIN LOW Specific PCL Reversals and recoveries continue to decline (C$ Million) 197 73 55 117 113 45 46 43 108 107 37 93 89 (70) (14) (15) (16) (19) (21) (25) (32) (34) (45) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 (47) (58) (60) 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 (99) (110) � Reversals and recoveries have declined from Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 unusually high levels in F2004 F2005 F2004 New Reservations Reversals Recoveries 5

  7. R I S K R E V I E W – T H I R D Q U A R T E R 2 0 0 5 2005 SPECIFIC PCL estimate remains at F2005 Specific PCL $275MM or less Estimate SPECIFIC PCL � Continued strong performance in Q3 F2005 (C$ Million) � Credit quality anticipated 880 820 to remain stable for the balance of F2005 455 We continue to … 275 or less � Anticipate low levels of 248 235 reversals and recoveries 67 162 YTD 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 BPS 16 20 60 56 30 4 16 6

  8. R I S K R E V I E W – T H I R D Q U A R T E R 2 0 0 5 TRADING AND UNDERWRITING Stable and profitable performance during the quarter DAILY P&L VERSUS VALUE AT RISK (VaR) MAY 2, 2005 TO JULY 29, 2005 (Presented On A Pre-Tax Basis) 20 Daily P&L 10 C$ Million (pre-tax) 0 2-May-05 16-May-05 31-May-05 14-Jun-05 28-Jun-05 13-Jul-05 27-Jul-05 Mark-to-Market portfolio VaR (10) Money Market Accrual portfolio VaR (20) Total VaR (30) (Refer to Supplementary Financial Package page 34 for risk data – presented on an after tax basis.) 7

  9. R I S K R E V I E W – T H I R D Q U A R T E R 2 0 0 5 Appendix 8

  10. R I S K R E V I E W – T H I R D Q U A R T E R 2 0 0 5 LOAN PORTFOLIO DISTRIBUTION Consumer Portfolio Consumer/Commercial/Corporate Delinquency Ratio (%)** Total Gross Loans and Acceptances* (C$ Billion) 0.4% As at July 31, 2005 0.3% Canada U.S. Other Total 0.2% Consumer Residential Mortgage 51 6 - 57 39% 0.1% Consumer Loans 18 9 - 27 19% Cards 5 - - 5 3% 0.0% Total Consumer 74 15 - 89 61% Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 03 03 04 04 05 05 Commercial 31 6 - 37 25% Total Consumer Portfolio Corporate 7 11 2 20 14% Canada U.S. Total 112 32 2 146 100% ** % of portfolio which is 90 days * Excludes reverse repos or more past due (Refer to the Supplementary Financial Package page 24) 9

  11. R I S K R E V I E W – T H I R D Q U A R T E R 2 0 0 5 CREDIT PERFORMANCE MEASURE Specific Provision For Credit Losses Specific PCL as a % of Average Net Loans and Canadian Acceptances % BMO Competitors (including Reverse Repos) F2004 .04 .29 1.8% Q2/05 .11 .17 1.5% Q3/05 .17 N/A 1.2% 15 yr 0.9% .39 .61 av. 0.6% BMO’s Canadian competitors include: RBC, BNS, CIBC, TD and National. 0.3% 15 yr av. - 1990 to 2004 0.0% '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 Q2 05 BMO Cdn Competitors Weighted Avg 15 Year Average (BMO) 10

  12. R I S K R E V I E W – T H I R D Q U A R T E R 2 0 0 5 AUTO MANUFACTURING AND SUPPLY Gross Auto Loans & Acceptances By Geography Other 9% C$ Million as at July 31, 2005 Performing Portfolio Total Canada Gross "Non- 50% US Loans & Gross Net "Investment Investment 41% BA's Impaired Impaired Grade" Grade" Suppliers 510 41 30 330 139 Portfolio Migration % 65 61 61 Motor Vehicle 60 56 54 50 Manufacturing 69 3 3 24 42 44 36 35 35 31 30 27 * ** Total 579 44 33 354 181 15 11 8 9 7 6 0 01 02 03 04 Q1 Q2 Q3 * Represents 0.4% of the total loan portfolio (excluding reverse repos) 05 05 05 Refer to the Supplementary Financial Package pages 26, 29 and 30 Performing-"Investment Grade" ** U.S. 65%, Canada 35% Performing-"Non-Investment Grade" Gross Impaired 11

  13. R I S K R E V I E W – T H I R D Q U A R T E R 2 0 0 5 CREDIT DERIVATIVES ARE USED TO ASSIST IN THE PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT OF OUR LOAN BOOK SECTOR CONCENTRATIONS Credit Protection Portfolio ($C Millions) OF CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS July 31, 2005 (JULY 31, 2005) Single Name Index Total Hedge Hedge Hedge Communications 181 62 243 Construction 0 15 15 Communications Financial Institutions 31 118 149 Services 19% Forest Products 12 15 27 9% Government 0 10 10 Manufacturing (excl Auto) 225 152 377 Financial Manufacturing (Auto) 122 18 140 Institutions Oil and Gas 0 36 36 Manufacturing 11% Real Estate 0 10 10 (Auto) Retail 6 39 45 Services 58 64 122 11% Manufacturing Transportation 0 31 31 Utilities 24 36 60 (excl Auto) Wholesale 0 36 36 29% Total at Q3 05 659 642 1,301 Total at Q2 05 751 567 1,318 12

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