YA Holding AB (publ) Investor presentation Q1 2020 Martin Modig CEO Antti Rokala CFO June 02, 2020
Volumes Income development and share in employment after course 2
YA’s market share reached all -time high in Q1 2020 YA market share Others YA 29,6 28,8 9.548 9.339 9.341 27,4 27,3 9.108 9.115 26,6 26,4 26,3 26,2 25,8 25,8 Market 25,5 25,0 Mar 2019 – 24,7 23,9 Mar 2020: 7.733 7.644 21,7 7.079 6.990 6.936 6.809 6.548 6.406 18,3 18,1 17,2 -31,9% 5.289 4.942 4.757 4.467 4.338 YA Mar 2019 Mar 2020: -23,5% 2.389 2.325 2.231 2.025 1.896 1.886 1.843 1.788 1.716 1.655 1.564 1.419 1.410 1.380 1.364 1.289 1.223 1.190 Source: Public Employment Service, Monthly statistics
4 Continued growth in YH and Vux to partially compensate decrease in AUB YH up by 59 percent within 12 months 59% 1.431 1.498 6 1.500 1.398 1.263 1.181 5 1.192 1.161 Covid-19 affecting 862 1.014 4 1.000 881 822 corporate sales starting 671 3 576 March 2020 2 500 1 2019 2020 0 0 jan-18 feb-18 mar-18 apr-18 may-18 jun-18 jul-18 aug-18 sep-18 okt-18 nov-18 dec-18 jan-19 feb-19 mar-19 apr-19 may-19 jun-19 jul-19 aug-19 sep-19 okt-19 nov-19 dec-19 jan-20 feb-20 mar-20 4 VUX up by 58 percent within 12 months 3 6 1.500 5 58% 2 4 1.000 821 778 781 694 3 628666 579644 520 469 2 500 398386 1 1 0 0 jan-18 feb-18 mar-18 apr-18 may-18 jun-18 jul-18 aug-18 sep-18 okt-18 nov-18 18-dec jan-19 feb-19 mar-19 apr-19 may-19 jun-19 jul-19 aug-19 sep-19 okt-19 nov-19 dec-19 jan-20 feb-20 mar-20 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D
The decrease in volumes of AUB is partly compensated by growing number of students and income from VUX and YH -6% 4.137 3.988 3.947 3.899 3.894 3.724 3.734 3.733 3.734 Vux 3.370 3.353 3.353 YH 2.827 AF Mar’19 Jan’20 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Mar
In total in Q1, “other” customers accounted for 44% of revenues compared to the 22% in previous year Share of total revenue by customer segment monthly Monthly revenues by customer segment Mnkr AF Other 60,0 AF YH VUX Corporate 100% 3,0 54,5 44,3 90% 20% 50,0 3,4 4,3 80% 41% 2,9 40,0 70% 8,2 60% 30,0 7,2 50% 40% 80% 43,8 20,0 30% 59% 26,0 20% 10,0 10% 0% 0,0 Other customers than AF stand for ~40% of revenues (20% in Q1 2019) and ~85% of gross margin (27% in Q1 2019)
Share of participants employed decreasing partially in 2020 - unemployment increasing rapidly, less jobs available Development 2018-2020 Share in employment 3 months after end of course - Average last 8 weeks All of YA: Average last 4 months* 87 89 87 83 82 86 84 86 78 79 80 84 84 80 83 77 81 83 83 83 77 Share in employment 80 81 79 80 79 78 74 79 76 75 78 78 74 77 76 76 76 Ø 78 75 75 75 75 73 74 74 72 71 71 69 69 68 68 82 78 65 65 Directly 3 months 6 months after course after coure after course Week 7 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 4 6 10 14 18
Financial information Income statement, segment information, balance sheet, cash-flow 8
Income Statement – Back to positive Revenues were 130.2 mnkr (153.8) in the quarter. Q1 2020 EBITDA was 19.5 mnkr (24.5) or 14.9% (15.9%). 180 EBITDA excluding exceptional items was 19.5 160 mnkr (22.6) or 14.9% (14.7%) 140 120 EBIT was 3.2 mnkr (7.7) or 2.4% (5.0%). 100 EBIT excl. exceptional items was 3.2 mnkr (5.9) or 80 2.4% (3.8%) 60 EBITDA in the graph is according to IFRS16 40 20 AF investment for employment education is stable 0 at historical low lever. 17: 17: 17: 17: 18: 18: 18: 18: 19: 19: 19: 19: 20: Cost adaptation of SEK 30 million at annual level Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 was completed by December 31, 2019 and is visible in OPEX of Q1 2020. 40 Income sources have become better diversified. EBITDA EBIT Other customers than AF stand for 44% of 30 revenues (22% in Q1 2019) and 85% of gross margin (27% in Q1 2019) 20 The outbreak of virus Covid-19 began to impact 10 YA’s business in March. 0 YA has switched to remote education and remote 18: Q1 18: Q2 18: Q3 18: Q4 19: Q1 19: Q2 19: Q3 19: Q4 20: Q1 -10 work for any services that may be handled remotely. No-business interruption has occurred. -20 -30
Segment information Avg n:o of Sales EBIT EBIT students mnkr by segment in % 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 Labor market training 1 676 2 891 73,0 119,5 - 3,8 3,5 -5,1% 3,0% Vocational University 1 439 937 23,3 16,2 2,5 - 0,0 -0,3% 10,5% Vocational secondary educ. 804 422 25,0 9,6 3,2 0,5 5,4% 12,9% Other training 8,9 8,5 1,3 1,6 18,8% 14,3% - - Totalt 3 919 4 250 130,2 153,8 3,2 5,6 2,5% 3,6% • In Q1 2019 most of the profit came from labour market training (AF) • In Q1 2020 the profit comes from Vocatinal University (YH) and Vocational secondary education (Vux)
11 Balance sheet and cash flow Q1 2020 Cashflow Q1 Cash balance amounted to SEK 4.6 million (1.4) at the end of the period. Cash flow for the quarter amounted to SEK -0.7 (- 2020 2019 7.4). EBITDA 19,5 24,5 Cash flow from operating activities amounted to SEK -4.3 million (-4.2). Change in working capital -4,4 -4,2 Change in working capital was SEK 8.2 million (7.4). Other non-cash items -2,0 -1,1 Capital injection of SEK 10 million was received in Cash flow before interest and taxes 13,1 19,2 February 2020. Interest paid -4,1 -8,4 Net debt amounted to SEK 506.9 million (551.9). Income tax paid -0,7 -0,8 Including leasing liability of SEK 151 million (192). Cash flow from operating activities 8,3 10,0 The company has been granted a deferral on tax Cash flow from investing activities -0,7 -5,4 payment of 22 mnkr until April 2, 2021. No shortfall of liquidity of foreseen during the Cash flow from financing activities -8,2 -12,0 commencing year. Cash flow for the period -0,7 -7,4
Market AF forecast 12
AF's May report forecasts a continued increase in AUB volumes during the year, but at a more moderate pace compared to the February forecast. The expenditure forecast for 2020 is decreased by 20% to approx. 1 billion. AF’s May report regarding Total paid services AUB Mnkr Participants in employment training (AUB) monthly, comparison between forecasts the forecasted expenditures: Feb prognos* Maj prognos 1 400 1 246 10 000 1 200 8 639 9 000 1 011 1 000 8 000 1 000 8 000 So far during the 6 531 7 000 year, the number of 800 6 000 AUB participants 600 4 700 5 000 has not reached the 400 4 000 previously assessed 3 000 200 volumes. 2 000 0 1 000 2019 2020 2020 utfall feb maj 0 prog. prog. jan feb mar apr maj jun jul aug sep okt nov dec • The May forecast contains a continued increase in the AUB volumes • Questionable if AF will be able to cope with such an increase • AF capacity at present is limited due to earlier reorganization / reduction, while resources are being allocated to serve the new unemployed
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