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What do you like?
What needs improvement?
What do you want to see in 2050?
What do you envision for transport- ation in 2050?
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Upcoming Process Today • Development Trends • Existing Growth Policy • Plan It Yourself Exercise Upcoming • Growth Scenario Assumptions • Growth Scenarios for Public Discussion
Residential Trends in Lincoln
Citywide Residential Permits 2,500 1,984 1,956 1,890 2,000 1,797 1,362 1,500 1,488 1,342 1,267 900 841 1,000 500 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Single Family Detached Single Family Attached & Duplex Multi-Family Total
10-Year Totals 14,827 units 1,483 average units per year 6,335 2010-2014 8,492 2015-2019
10-Year Housing Mix single family 39.4 % townhouse & duplex 15.6 % multi-family 45.0 % Assumes 40% multi-family
10-Year Housing Mix 2015-2019 2010-2014 single family 38.9 % 40.2 % townhouse & duplex 15.6 % 15.7 % multi-family 45.6 % 44.2 % Assumes 40% multi-family
Discussion What factors might be contributing to the increased proportion of multi- family development?
Location
New Growth Areas 6,415 units, 2015-2019 1,283 average units per year
Established Areas 1,906 units, 2015-2019 381 average units per year Assumes 8,000 units between 2016-2040 (333 units per year)
Established Areas 522 500 409 386 366 400 331 300 301 203 184 200 138 82 100 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Single Family Detached Single Family Attached & Duplex Multi-Family Total
Greater Downtown 670 units, 2015-2019 134 average units per year Assumes 3,000 units between 2016-2040 (125 units per year)
5-Year Greater Downtown Traditional Housing: 316 units 47.2 % Student Housing: 354 units 52.8 %
Location
Location
Location 2015-2019 75.5 % New Growth Areas 22.4 % Established Areas 2.0 % 3-Mile
Density New Growth Area (Edge) Density 3.5 - 4.0 units per acre Assumes 3.0 units per acre
Discussion What are the different impacts of infill vs edge growth?
Main Takeaway • Overall city growth has exceeded assumptions over the past five years • Multi-family • Infill • Edge density
Plan Forward 2050 Lincoln’s Utilities Guiding Principles
OUR MISSION To responsibly deliver, enhance and maintain vital infrastructure for the good of our community. IT IS OUR MISSION to responsibly deliver, enhance and maintain vital infrastructure and services for the good of our community.
WE’RE GROWING!!! • Bullet point 1 • Bullet point 2 • Bullet point 3 But where we grow is limited to where our utilities exist. Only provide Utilities to areas that are annexed. IT IS OUR MISSION to responsibly deliver, enhance and maintain vital infrastructure and services for the good of our community.
WASTEWATER RULES! • Wastewater collection is generally gravity. • Temporary Pump Stations allowed… must meet criteria .
TEMPORARY PUMP STATIONS • Must be TEMPORARY! • Or approved for Creek Crossing. • Substantial • MUST have capacity in Public receiving sewer. • City Standards for Benefit Construction. • City operations -$$ O/M • Abandonin g IT IS OUR MISSION to responsibly deliver, enhance and maintain vital infrastructure and services for the good of our community.
LINCOLN WATER SYSTEM Serving almost 300,000 customers. Over 1200 miles of pipe. 26,000 Valves 12,000 Hydrants 60 miles of transmission mains IT IS OUR MISSION to responsibly deliver, enhance and maintain vital infrastructure and services for the good of our community.
COMP PLAN GROWTH AREAS, MASTER PLAN, AND CIP
SOLID WASTE OPERATIONS • No Out of County Waste. • Preserves Landfill space – owned by City of Lincoln • Allows for programs • Collection Sites • East Area Site Approved IT IS OUR MISSION to responsibly deliver, enhance and maintain vital infrastructure and services for the good of our community.
WATER, WASTEWATER, AND SOLID WASTE SOLELY SUPPORTED BY USER RATES!
WATERSHED MANAGEMENT • Land conservation • Stream and wetland buffers • Site Design Standards • BMPs / Water Quality • Preserve Natural Characteristics IT IS OUR MISSION to responsibly deliver, enhance and maintain vital infrastructure and services for the good of our community.
DRAINAGE AND FLOODING • No Adverse Impact!! • Don’t harm your neighbors! • Drainage Criteria Manual • New growth will be OUTSIDE of the floodplain and floodway
Donna K. Garden dgarden@lincoln.ne.gov 402-441-8605 lincoln.ne.gov/city/ltu
Principles for Lincoln’s Growth • Annexation tied to utility services • Compact – multi-directional • Lincoln Public School district boundary tied to annexation • One public school district • Gravity flow sewer • Efficient & orderly growth is cost- effective
Principles for Lincoln’s Growth • Drainage basins basis for urban growth tiers with priority areas • Targets public infrastructure investments • Predictability for public & private sector
Growth Tiers Tier 1A existing undeveloped approvals Tier 1B after Tier 1A, to 2026 Tier 1C 2026 – 2040
Growth Tiers Tier II 2040 – 2060 Tier III beyond 2060 Chapter 12
Residential Land Inventory
Residential Land Inventory 16,141 approved units in New Growth Areas 1,369 3-Year avg in New Growth Areas 11.8 years supply in New Growth Areas
Residential Land Inventory 2,365 final platted single-family lots 801 3-Year avg single-family permits 3.0 years supply of final platted lots
Developable Acres Land without existing approvals, outside floodplain, vacant/ag Tier IA : 0.1 sq mi Tier IB : 6.7 sq mi Tier IC : 6.6 sq mi Tier II : 20.7 sq mi Tier III : 96.0 sq mi
LPlan Assumptions Today Assumption Actual • Add 1,500 units per year • Added 1,500 units per year • 40 % multi-family • 45 % multi-family • 8,000 infill units, 2016- • 1,906 infill units, 2015-2019 2040 (333 units/year) (381 units/year) • 3,000 downtown units, • 670 downtown units, 2015- 2016-2040 (125 units/year) 2019 (134 units/year) • 3.0 units/acre • 3.5 - 4.0 units/acre
LPlan Assumptions Today Assumption Updated Assumption • 412,000 by 2040 • 400,000 by 2040 • Lincoln 90% of total • 440,000 by 2050 • Need to add 1,500 • Lincoln 90% of total households per year • Need to add 1,600 households per year
Main Takeaway • Assumptions used with LPlan 2040 will need to be adjusted for 2050
Plan It Yourself
Purpose • To consider the future land use needs for the Lincoln/Lancaster County area. • To discuss particular geographic considerations important for planning future land use. • To evaluate future scenarios in the context of fiscal constraint, particularly regarding transportation facilities.
Assumptions: Growth • The planning horizon for the game is 2050 • Lancaster County’s 2050 population will be about 440,000 (increase of 120,000) • 90% will live in Lincoln • This has held true since the 1960s • Future Household size will be 2.35 persons per household • Currently 2.40 • Typical square mile of suburban development has about 2,000 dwelling units
Assumptions: Growth • For the purposes of the game 45,000 dwelling units will be required to serve Lincoln’s 2050 population • 15,000 dwelling units already approved • 30,000 dwelling units to locate • To keep things simple, the game focuses on residential development • A majority of land on the Future Land Use map is dedicated to residential
Assumptions: Utilities • Lincoln will continue to develop using gravity sewer system • Lincoln will continue to develop along drainage basins • New utilities will be needed to serve the future population, but utility costs are not part of this game
Assumption: Redevelopment • For the purposes of the game, redevelopment adds to current dwelling units, it does not displace them • Redevelopment may occur on vacant or repurposed land • Vacant lots • Underutilized commercial space • Redevelopment has public cost that is not part of this game • Redevelopment is likely to occur as higher density development such as: Condos, attached single family, apartments
Assumption: City Fringe Roads along the city fringe often do not meet city standards – for the game it is assumed all of these roads would need to be upgraded to city standards.
The Game: Part 1 Yellow squares • 1,500 dwelling units (DU) • Cover one square mile • Include sufficient space for commercial and office uses as well as parks and schools, and other uses New Residential Typical Suburban 1 square mile 1500 Dwelling Units
The Game: Part 1 Orange squares • 500 dwelling units • Not intended to be area specific • Dwelling units sprinkled throughout the square mile in which they are placed Increase of 500 DUs
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