ECONOMICS, ENERGY AND FOOD SECURITY FOR THE WORLD by Prof. U.R. Rao Cha hairman an, , PRL L Cou ounc ncil (Former Chairman, ISRO & Secretary, DOS) Department of Space, Antariksh Bhavan New BEL Road, Bangalore ‟ 560 094 OCTOBER 19, 2008 Lecture delivered at WAAS, Hyderabad S-1
ECONOM CONOMICS ICS 1. Soaring Inflation particularly in Developing Countries. 2. Percent Inflation in Developed Countries US (2.2), UK (3.1), Japan (2.6), Canada (2.7), Australia (3.9). 3. Percent inflation in developing nations - India (9.0), Brazil (5.4), China (11.9), S. Africa (5.1), Indonesia (6.3). 4. Inflation primarily in food articles, poor productivity, escalating oil price, poor rural infrastructure affecting the poorer sections of society. S – 2
CAUS USES ES OF INFLATI TION 1. Oil Price increase hampering growth in energy production, Infrastructure which in turn affects industrial and agricultural growth. 2. While GDP growth in India is 9% per year, contribution of agriculture has diminished. Agricultural Contribution is 17%, Industry (19%) and Services (64%). In USA, it is 5%, 20% & 75%. 3. Unlike in USA where only 2% people are engaged in Agriculture, 60% of people in India are dependant on Agriculture. 4. Poor agricultural productivity (1.0 ‟ 2.5 t/ha.) has major effect on rural population in addition to affecting food security. Population growth (2.5% / year) offsets more than Agri growth (<2% / year). S – 3
RURAL RAL ECONO ONOMICS ICS 1. 1. GDP growth has minimal effect t on rural populati ation n ‟ rapid increa ease e in inequity ty (factor tor of 1.5) between en the rich and poor, who are most vulnera rable. ble. 2. 2. Large e scale e unemploy ployment nt and under-em employ ployment ent in rural areas. 3. 3. Need to establish h agro-ba based ed industr tries es in rural areas for providin ding g gainful ul employment. ent. This requires res substanti antial al increa ease e in energy and infrastr truct ucture. ure. 4. 4. Limite ted d agricult ultural ral land cannot t support t such large populati ation on ‟ large scale deployment nt of rural people e to urban ‟ semi-urban rban areas needed. d. 5. 5. Massive investment tment needed d for providing ding vocational onal training ng to enable e rural people to get gainful ul employmen oyment. t. S – 4
AGRICU RICULTURAL RAL PRODU ODUCT CTIVI IVITY TY Devel eloped oped Devel elopi oping ng Latin tin America ica Countrie untries Countrie untries Asia Africa ica Popul ulation ation 2005 (Billi lions) ons) 1.0 5.4 3.6 0.6 0.8 Popul ulati ation on 2020 (Billi lions) ons) 1.1 6.8 4.5 0.8 1.2 Popul ulati ation on 2050 (Billi lions) ons) 1.2 8.4 5.4 1.0 1.8 Food od Produc ductivity tivity 2005 (T/ha.) a.) 4.6 2.8 2.4 3.2 1.1 Requi quired ed Produc ductivity tivity 2020 (Ton / ha.) -- -- 4.0 4.2 3.6 3.4 Requi quired ed Produc ductivity tivity 2050 (Ton / ha.) -- -- 4.6 4.8 4.0 4.8 S – 5
FOOD D SECURITY URITY 1. Poor Food Productivity 1.7 ton / ha. Average in India. 2. Primary cause is negative effect of green Revolution. 3. Food security requires increased productivity to ~4.5 t/ha. in developing countries by 2050. 4. New Ever Green Revolution requires: Grid-based precision farming by combining space technology and bio-technological inputs. 5. Massive investment in Energy / Infrastructure needed. 6. Needs better access to marketing, development of agro-based industries. 7. India ‟ started with Rural Kiosks (Gyandoot, Tarhat, Drishti) and now Village Resource Centers. 8. Use of space technology for better meteorological forecasting and mitigation of disasters (drought, meteorological disasters). S – 6
Earth Observation- Applications S-7 LAND LAND AGRICULTURE & SOIL AGRICULTURE & SOIL Landuse/Land Cover Mapping Landuse/Land Cover Mapping Crop Acreage & Production Estimation Crop Acreage & Production Estimation Wasteland Mapping Wasteland Mapping Soil & Land Degradation Mapping Soil & Land Degradation Mapping Urban Sprawl Studies Urban Sprawl Studies Watershed Development Watershed Development Large Scale Mapping Large Scale Mapping Horticulture Mission for North-East Horticulture Mission for North-East WEATHER & CLIMATE WEATHER & CLIMATE FOREST, ENVIRONMENT, BIO FOREST, ENVIRONMENT, BIO FOREST, ENVIRONMENT, BIO Extended Range Extended Range Forest Cover & Type Mapping Forest Cover & Type Mapping Forest Cover & Type Mapping Forest Fire and Risk Mapping Monsoon Forecasting Forest Fire and Risk Mapping Forest Fire and Risk Mapping Monsoon Forecasting Ocean State Forecasting Biodiversity Ocean State Forecasting Biodiversity Characterisation Biodiversity Characterisation Characterisation Environmental Impact Studies Regional Climate Model Environmental Impact Studies Environmental Impact Studies Regional Climate Model WATER WATER WATER OCEAN OCEAN Potential Drinking Water Zones Potential Drinking Water Zones Potential Drinking Water Zones Potential Fishing Zone (PFZ) Potential Fishing Zone (PFZ) Command Area Management Command Area Management Command Area Management Coastal Zone Mapping Coastal Zone Mapping Reservoir Sedimentation Reservoir Sedimentation Reservoir Sedimentation DISASTER SUPPORT DISASTER SUPPORT Flood Damage Assessment Flood Damage Assessment Flood Damage Assessment Drought Monitoring Drought Monitoring Drought Monitoring Land Slide Hazard Land Slide Hazard Zonation Land Slide Hazard Zonation Zonation GEOLOGY & MINERALS GEOLOGY & MINERALS GEOLOGY & MINERALS • • Vasundara PLANNING COMMISSION Vasundara PLANNING COMMISSION • • GEOISMM • GEOISMM • Agro-Climatic Zone Based Planning Agro-Climatic Zone Based Planning • • Coal Fire studies Coal Fire studies (Land Use / Land Cover) (Land Use / Land Cover) • • Mineral Exploration • Mineral Exploration • Agroclimatic Planning Info. Bank-APIB Agroclimatic Planning Info. Bank-APIB
IMSD - ACTION PLANS Surface Water Harvesting, Ground Water Exploration and Recharge, Soil Conservation, Alternate Land use Land Resources Water Resources Development Development Check Dams Agro-horticulture Percolation Tanks Agro-forestry Nala Bunds Silvipasture Dykes (Bandhara) Double cropping Farm Ponds Intensive Agriculture Vegetative Bunds Afforestation Gully Plugs Forest Enrichment Tank Desiltation Pasture Development Dug/Tube Wells Fuel/Fodder Plantation S-8 S-1
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S – 11 VILLAGE RESOURCE CENTRES (VRC) OUTREACH TO GRASSROOTS Village Resource Centre (VRC) • Digital Connectivity Components • EO based Info. • Advisory on Agri, Status Fisheries, Livilihood support, … September 06 , 2008 • Tele-Education, Healthcare, .. • Disaster Management Set-up: Being Set-up:
EN ENER ERGY GY SE SECUR URITY ITY „ Energy Security for Industrial Expansion, Agricultural and Infrastructure Growth. India’s high GDP growth is mainly nly due to services sector r ‟ manufac factur turing ng sector or growth needs increased ased energy. „ Per capita ta energy usage (Kg oil equi), ), US (7920), ), Europe e (3990) as against t China (1240), ), India (530), ), Developin oping g countri ries (1070) 0). „ Energ rgy Deficit t 10% on an average ge and 15-18% % at peak in India. 160, 0,00 000 0 MW installed d capacity ty of which oil / coal 65%, Hy Hydro 25%, Solar 7.5% and Nu Nuclear ar 2.5%. o C Increase „ Globa bal warming ng scenar ario o 0.75 e in the last 150 years. „ CO CO 2 Emission on Increase ase from 280 PPM to 380 PPM. „ Globa bal Wa Warming ng effect ct ‟ Glacier er Melting, ng, Arctic c ice melti ting, ng, Sea Level Ri Rise (3mm/ m/yr) yr), , Inundati dation on of low lying g coastal tal areas, , changin nging g weather er pattern, n, Increase ase in extr trem eme meteor orologi ological al events ts. o C (2.0 ‟ 5.4 o C) „ IPCC Panel Predicti tion on by 2100 0 Temp. p. rise of 3.4 C) Sea Level rise .37m (0.23 3 ‟ 0.51) 51) S – 12
GLOB OBAL AL WARM RMIN ING G PO POLITI TICS CS „ Rich countr tries es contribu bute te most t on per-capit pita a basis US (22t), ), Australi ralia (19t), ), Europe pean an Co Countries ries (11t) t), , 1 billion on people e (16%) ) accoun unt t for almost ost 50% of CO CO 2 Emiss ssion on as against nst 5 billion on people e in developing oping countri ries es contributi buting ng 50%. „ Kyoto to Protocol ocol specifi fically recommends nds ‟ rich countr tries es must t reduce e their r emission n to make space e for poor to grow. w. Ho Howe weve ver, r, US US / Australi alia a have increa eased sed CO CO 2 Emiss ssion on by 19% in the last decade. de. „ Transpo port rt contri ributes utes 15% of total CO 2 Emission. on. US US alone contribu butes tes 36% of the above. e. „ Poor r countri ries es cannot t survive e with their populati ation on predicted ted to increase ase from the present t 5 billion on to almost t 9 billion on by 2050. . S – 13
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