PRODUCTIVITY Feeding 9 Billion People in 2050 Food Production by - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

PRODUCTIVITY Feeding 9 Billion People in 2050 Food Production by Region 1972- Food Demand By Commodities in 2050 relative 2050 to 2005-07 (Constant 2004-06 US$) (Billion kg per year) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 Asia 2,000 1,500 Latin America 1,000 Africa Oceania 500 Europe North America 0 1972198219922002201220302050 CEA 2013 based on FAO 2012

ADAPTATION Climate Change Impacts on Food Systems Problems Today: Issues Tomorrow: Uncertain Future: Short Term Volatility Medium Term Yield Losses Production Collapse in the and Increasing Cost Longer Term Structures Recent price spikes for food commodities have Maize and wheat yields show climate Maize and wheat yields show climate been linked to extreme weather events impacts impacts CCAFS 2014; World Bank 2008

EMISSIONS Agriculture: Today LAND USE AGRICULTURE TOTAL CHANGE ~13% OF TOTAL EMISSIONS ~11% OF TOTAL Land Use Agriculture Change 13% FOREST 11% LIVESTOCK LAND Buildings 62% 63% 6.4% Electricity & Transport Heat 14% FERTILIZATION Production CROPLAND 25% 16% 25% RICE - 10% BURNING OTHER - 12% Other Energy BIOMASS 11% Industry 9.6% 21% IPCC 2014

EMISSIONS Agriculture: Tomorrow Projections of Global, Agriculture and Land Use Change Related Emissions towards 2050 Global (Gt CO 2 e) Emissions: 49.1 Gt Agriculture Ag. Reduces Business As Proportional Usual to Other Sectors Global Global Emissions: Emissions: 21-22 Gt 21-22 Gt 2 1 5.4 Gt LULUCF* 25 ~70% 5.4 Gt LULUCF* ~25% 11 % 9.5 Gt - 5.5 Gt 60% GAP 6.4 Gt of % of Total 45 14 Agriculture 4 Gt Agriculture Agriculture Total % % 2050 TODAY ‘2C’ Ensuring Emission Level 1 2 By 2050, Agriculture will therefore have to By 2050, Agriculture and Land Use reduce its emission intensity by 60% , Change could represent 70% of if it is to maintain its footprint in parallel with Global Emissions - if global emissions overall emissions reductions. This already are reduced in accordance with a 2C assumes emissions from Land Use Change goal, while Agriculture were to remain in will have fallen to zero. business as usual. WRI 2013 *Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry

PROJECTED TRENDS WILL NOT GET US THERE Increase in Food Production (%) by 2030 Income Increase to 2030 (% per year) +35% 4.5%* +20%* 2.5%* Trend Vision Trend Vision * 2.5.% is 10 yr trend growth (2003-2012) of agricultural labor productivity * Trend assumes a 2 o C warmer world by 2030 and an associated in low income countries projected forward to 2030; 4.5% is estimated 10% reduction in food crop yields agricultural incomes gains of the poor needed to end poverty by 2030. Health Outcomes (bn people) by 2030 GHG Emissions from Agriculture (% change) by 2030 Undernourished 1.4 +13%* Obese 0.7 0.5 0.2 -25% Trend Vision Trend Vision * Trend assumes 8% undernourishment rate and 6.8 bn people in * Trend: WRI estimates developing countries by 2030, Vision is 3%.

CHALLENGE 1: BROADEN GROWTH AND JOBS … Recent growth, scope for further gains Need to capture market opportunities Food demand ~60% higher by 2030, more Relatively strong recent growth ... than any other region. Annual growth rates (%) 2000-13 Change in food demand in SSA by 2030 % Agricultural value added +5.1 Cereals, food 56 Cereal yield growth +2.1 Roots and tubers 47 Sugar and sugar crops (raw sugar eq.) 62 Cereal area expansion +1.8 Pulses, dry 60 Source: World Development Indicators Vegetable oils, oilseeds & products (oil eq.) 64 … scope for further gains. Meat (carcass weight) 63 Milk and dairy, excl. butter (fresh milk eq.) 50 4x irrigated area 13 Number of SSA countries Other foods (kcal) 48 11 200m ha uncultivated land Total foods (kcal) 55 potentially available 7 5 4 Opportunities to expand agribusiness job 3 2 growth across value chains as food demand increases. Cereal Yield Range (kgs/hectare)

EMPLOYMENT: SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICA The agrifood system * will continue to provide most jobs in Africa, and may account for most job growth in Africa over the next decade, even though its overall share of employment may decline. * The agrifood system is the entire set of actors and activities in producing, packaging, and distributing agricultural products to consumers (farming, own & wage labor; food manufacturing; marketing; transport; and food preparation (away from home)) Result for 6 African Countries (Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia) Source: Tschirley et al (2015). Africa’s Unfolding Diet Transformation: Implications for Agrifood System Employment. Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies, 5(1). Baseline derived from LSMS surveys

CHALLENGE 1: SCALE SMALLHOLDER SUCCESS, NEW MODELS FOR LARGER FARMS Scale smallholder success New models for larger farms • Countries with significant cereal yield • Significant interest from private investors. − 31 agribusiness investment funds with growth & significant poverty reduction through smallholder production e.g. target capitalization ranging from $8m to $2.7bn have sights on Africa. Countries Cereal % change in ~200 million hectares of uncultivated land • [time period based on yield poverty potentially available. poverty survey years, annual headcount over about 10 yr period] Need to ensure inflow of private capital • growth (%) rate (%) delivers growth and poverty reduction. Rwanda [2000-2010] +7.2 -21 Land governance assessment launched • Ethiopia [1999-2010] +4.9 -33 in 8 countries (working with Africa Center of Excellence on Land Governance). • Operationalizing the Principles for Has not happened everywhere. E.g. • Responsible Investment Zambia & Malawi had annual cereal yield growth of 5.9% & 8.5% from early 2000s, Need new models , some being tested, to • but more limited poverty reduction. Lesson link in smallholders (e.g. Ghana). learning.

CHALLENGE 2: SUSTAINABILITY Climate change Natural resource use Disease risk Significant negative impacts Increasing pressures on Vigilance on pest and for Sub-Saharan Africa land and water use diseases • Land degradation is +1.5 o C warming by 2030 • • Avian influenza – not gone. increasing could lead to about 40% of - Biophysical (soil properties, current maize area no longer • Wheat rust spread across topography, vegetation) suitable for current cultivars. Africa (susceptible varieties - Human induced (little still in use). 15-20% crop yield decline • replacement of soil for warming above 2 o C. nutrients, production on • Periodic desert locust marginal lands). Arid and semi arid areas to • outbreaks in West Africa spread. (Mali, Niger). Water stress currently • relatively low in 25-90% increase in • • Climate change impact on aggregate, but undernourishment rate for distribution and virulence of increasing in some 1.2-1.9 o C warming. crop pests and diseases. basins. Source: Turn Down the Heat

CHALLENGE 3: ENSURING FOOD SECURITY AND IMPROVED NUTRITION • Lagging global target of halving undernourishment by 2015 ( currently 23% down from 33% in 1990-92 ). Lessons to learn from countries that have halved undernourishment (16 countries in SSA). • Need to accelerate progress with more targeted approach where undernourishment rates are • above or similar to poverty rates. Countries Children under 5 Population Population moderately or severely undernourished below $1.25 per underweight (%) (%) day (%) Under-nutrition & e.g. Togo undernourishment < poverty 16.5 18.9 52.5 [2011] rates Under-nutrition & e.g. Ethiopia undernourishment ≈ poverty 29.2 36.0 36.8 [2011] rates Source: UN MDG database, POVCAL using data from the year of the latest poverty survey in the POVCAL database

Enabling the Business of Agriculture has been inspired by the WBG Doing Business report, which has a recognized track record in measuring laws and regulations in 189 economies and leveraging reforms. 16

A tool for improved policymaking 17

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T O P I C S S C O R E D I N E B A 2 0 1 6 Seed Machinery Fertilizer Markets Finance Transport Gender Land Env Sust Water Livestock ICT T O P I C S U N D E R D E V E L O P M E N T 19

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De Facto PROCEDURES, TIME & COST Processes as experienced by the private sector in complying with legal and regulatory requirements De Jure LEGAL INDICATORS All public regulations, other legal texts of general application, judicial decisions and administrative rulings

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