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WEATHER OUTLOOK 2015 PRESENTED BY World Weather, Inc. WEBSITE -- http://www.worldweather.cc Telephone: 913-383-1161 EMAIL ------ worldweather@bizkc.rr.com Fax Number: 913-383-1198

A Record Wet Summer In Saskatchewan And Parts Of Western Manitoba Will Be Remembered Along With Several Other Wet Years In This Current Decade. When Will It Stop Raining? What About Northern Alberta And The Peace River Region?

Abundant Precipitation In The Western And Central Parts Of The Prairies In November And Again During February Left Some Of Those Areas With A Bit Of A Wetter Biased Environment. The Changes Did Not Seem To Impact Manitoba Which Stayed Persistently Drier Biased During The Season. Some Areas In Southern Manitoba Were Ranked Driest For The Winter So Far Relative To The Other 66 Years Of Data From Environment Canada. Despite The Drier Bias, Most Of The Prairies Were Experiencing Very Good Weather With A Very Low Risk Of Flooding This Spring. The Wetter Areas In Northwestern And North-Central Saskatchewan May Experience Some Significant Runoff For A Little While During The Spring, But Most Areas Should Dry Down Quickly.

Soil Conditions Are Rated Favorably Across Most Of The Prairies. Top And Subsoil Moisture Is Adequate In Most Areas With A Little Bit Of Surplus Moisture In Alberta’s Beaverlodge Region. The Lighter Green Areas Noted On These Maps Suggest Areas That May Be First To Dry Down In The Spring Season If There Is No Greater Precipitation In The Next Few Weeks Than That Reported So Far This Winter. If Spring Arrives And Soil Moisture Is Not Much Greater Than It Is Now Crops Will Likely Be Planted A Little More Aggressively Than Usual Depending On Spring Temperatures. The Colder Biased Temperatures Are In The Spring The Longer Producers Will Have To Wait To Get Into The Fields For Planting. Very Little Surplus Soil Moisture Is Expected.

Weather Data Provided By Environment Canada Presentation of Actual Snow Depths Provided By Weather Network

How Long Before The Drought Years Return? 600 Years Of Precipitation Trends – It Does Tend To Oscillate

The 18-year Cycle Will Perpetuate Status Quo Conditions Across North America Over The Next Few Weeks. There Will Be A Quasi Permanent Feature Of High Pressure Aloft Over The Western Most Parts Of North America. A Prevailing LRC Jan. 1 To Mar. 15, 1961 Cycle Promoting A Repeating Pattern Of 56 Days Will See To It That The Recent Warmer Than Usual Conditions Will End in February as Change Toward Cooler Weather Is Expected In Mid- To Late February And March, But The Coldest Air Will Be A Little Further To The East Than That Of Earlier This Season So That A Larger Part Of Manitoba And Ontario Are Impacted While Western Saskatchewan And Alberta Stay A Little Jan. 1 To Mar. 15, 1979 Warmer Biased. Precipitation, Even Though It May Occur A Little More Often At Times Some Areas Will Not Be Very Wet. The Environment Will Perpetuate A Below Average Spring Runoff Potential In Many Areas And Some Potential For Quick Spring Planting With The Exception Of Cool Soil Temperatures In The East And Some Late Season Cold Weather. Jan. 1 To Mar. 15, 1997

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES 7-Day Average Centered on March 4, 2015 NOAA NOAA El Nino-Like Conditions Are Prevailing. There Is Still Considerable Debate As To Whether A Full Blown El Nino Event Will Occur In 2015 Or Not. Certainly Predictions For El Nino Over The Past Year Have Failed To Verify.

Does This Pattern Look Familiar? It Should. It Is The Same Pattern Shown On The Previous 18-Year Weather Pattern Chart. We Can Make This Easier To See By Adding The Isoheight Lines That We Typically Use For Upper Air Flow Patterns Aloft.

These Yellow Lines Suggest The Pattern El Nino Generates Is The Same Pattern That Is Being Advertised In The 18-year Cycle Charts. Having Both Of These Patterns Agree Results In A Strong Signal For Winter Weather And Confidence Will Be Above Average This Year For Winter Weather Because Of These Two Coincidental Patterns.

April and May 1961 June Through August 1961 April and May 1979 June Through August 1979 April and May 1997 June Through August 1997

A Research Paper By Shabbar And Skinner December – February Average Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies For The Five Driest Years In Canada In 2004 Entitled ‘ Summer Drought Patterns In Canada And The Relationship To Global Sea Surface Temperatures ’ Suggests Sea Surface Temperatures In The December Through February Period Can Be Early Predictor Of Summer Drought Average Palmer Drought Index Values For The Five Driest Years In Canada Excepting The North-Central Atlantic Ocean, Today’s Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Are A Very Close Match To Those Required For The Dry Summer Signal In Western Canada

1961 Ranked 14 th Driest Spring ::: Ranked 33 rd Warmest Spring Out of 65 Yrs 1979 Ranked 18 th Wettest Spring ::: Ranked 10 th Coolest Spring Out of 65 Yrs 1997 Ranked 28 th Wettest Spring ::: Ranked 17 th Coolest Spring Out of 65 Yrs * 1961 Ranked 1 st Driest Summer ::: Ranked 1 st Hottest Summer Out of 65 Yrs 1979 Ranked 4 th Driest Summer ::: Ranked 24 th Hottest Summer Out of 65 Yrs 1997 Ranked 17 th Driest Summer ::: Ranked 14 th Hottest Summer Out of 65 Yrs * 1961 Ranked 37 th Wettest Autumn ::: Ranked 15 th Warmest Autumn out of 64 Yrs 1979 Ranked 12 th Driest Autumn ::: Ranked 21 st Warmest Autumn out of 64 Yrs 1997 Ranked 10 th Driest Autumn ::: Ranked 20 th Warmest Autumn out of 64 Yrs * Neutral ENSO Conditions Until May 1997 when El Nino Developed * All Other Years Were Neutral ENSO All Year Long

March Weather Will Be Mixed Once Again With Pattern Changes Expected About Every Ten Days. On Average, The Month Will Be Warmer Biased In The West And South And Below Average Precipitation From Southern Alberta Into Southern Saskatchewan. Northern Parts Of The Prairies Will Have A Slightly Wetter Biased Conditions. The Only Cooler Biased Conditions For The Entire Month Will Be In The Northeast. There Will Be Short Term Blasts Of Colder Air Moving Through The Prairies From Time To Time, But The Warmth Will Be More Dominating.

Weather This Spring And Summer Will Be Mixed In Quite A Few Areas And There Is Going To Be A Mixed Impact On Production. Dryness Will Be Concern For West-Central And Northwestern Saskatchewan And East-central And Northeastern Alberta Where Dryness May Be Around In Both Spring And Summer With High Pressure Prevailing Aloft To Keep Temperatures Warm, Humidity Low And Precipitation Lighter Than Usual. The Southeastern Prairies Will Moisten Up In The Spring After A Rather Dry Winter And Low Snow Melt Runoff. The Moisture Boost Will Slow Fieldwork During Planting And Worry About Another Wet Year May Evolve, But Progressively Drier Conditions Will Occur During The Summer Changing Those Worries. Western Alberta And “Possibly” Northeastern Saskatchewan Weather Will Be A Little More Favorable

Authors: Santiago Begueria, Borja Latorre, Fergus Reig, Sergio M. Vincente-Serrano

El Nino-like Conditions Will Continue Over The Next Few Weeks, But There Is Still Some Potential That A More Significant El Nino Event May Evolve Later In 2015. That Places Southeastern Asia On A Watch List Until El Nino Like Conditions Disappear Entirely. Drought Conditions In Australia, Ukraine, Russia, Northeastern China And The Southwestern United States Will Be Eased This Spring, But A Multi-year Drought Will Continue In Northeastern Brazil And May Linger Into The Autumn In Parts Of Chile.

Percent of Normal Precipitation Over The Past 30, 60, 90 And 120 Days Has Been Mostly Unchanging Indicating A Stagnant Weather Pattern. The Most Recent Precipitation Anomaly In The Northern And Western Midwest Is A Growing Concern Since The Upper Parts Of The Midwest Should Stay Out Of The Wetter Biased Pattern For An Extended Period Of Time. Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Wisconsin, Northern Illinois And Michigan Will Need Significant Moisture This Spring To Assure Dryness Does Not Become An Issue.

Percentage Of Nation Enduring Various Stages Of Drought

Texas Water Reservoir Levels As A Percent Of Capacity On March 8, 2015 February 20, 2015 5.2% 31.9% 67.6% 96.2% 91.7% 39.3% 90.2% 44.8% 32.7% Despite Improvements In Texas Rainfall During 2014 Water Storage Is Still Very Low Keeping Concern Running High That Dryness Might Return. California’s Water Supply Is No Better And It Will Have To Wait Until Next Month Before There Is Another Good Chance For Rain.

March Will Be Dominated By Some Lingering Dryness In The Eastern U.S. And By A New Region Of Cooler Biased Conditions In The Southwestern United States. Warmer Than Usual Conditions Will Come Back Across Canada And The Northern And Central United States. However, There Will Be Some Returning Colder Biases In Canada At Times. Less Than Usual Precipitation Will Continue From The Pacific Northwest Through The Northern U.S. Plains To The Northern Midwest While The Southern States Are Wetter Than Usual.