Presentation to the City of Los Angeles Treasurer on the City's General Pool Investments August 31, 2018
Data Source: Bloomberg Economic Update: Overall Economy * Real Rate (Inflation Adjusted) Percent -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Q4 2010 2.0 Q1 2011 -1.0 Q2 2011 2.9 Q3 2011 -0.1 U.S. GDP (Quarter over Quarter Annualized)* Q4 2011 4.7 Q1 2012 3.2 Q2 2012 1.7 Q3 2012 0.5 Q4 2012 0.5 Q1 2013 3.6 Q2 2013 0.5 Q3 2013 3.2 Q4 2013 3.2 Q1 2014 -1.0 Q2 2014 5.1 Q3 2014 4.9 Q4 2014 1.9 Q1 2015 3.3 Q2 2015 3.3 Q3 2015 1.0 Q4 2015 0.4 Q1 2016 1.5 Q2 2016 2.3 Q3 2016 1.9 Q4 2016 1.8 Q1 2017 1.8 Q2 2017 3.0 Q3 2017 2.8 Q4 2017 2.3 Q1 2018 2.2 Estimate: Bloomberg's Survey of Economists Q2 2018 4.2 Q3 2018 3.0 Q4 2018 2.8 Q1 2019 2.4 As of: 8/31/2018 Q2 2019 2.4
Economic Update: Employment Unemployment Rates Monthly Non-Farm Payrolls California 9 400 LA Area U.S.A 350 8 300 7 250 Thousands Percent 200 6 150 5 100 4 50 0 3 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 *Los Angeles area unemployment is not seasonally adjusted. 12 Month Average Monthly Job Change: 194,167 Data Source: Bloomberg
Economic Update: Consumer Activity U.S. Retail Sales* YOY % Change Total Monthly U.S. Retail Sales $520 4.50 $510 4.00 $500 3.50 $490 3.00 $480 Percent 2.50 Billions $470 2.00 $460 1.50 $450 1.00 $440 0.50 $430 0.00 $420 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 *Inflation Adjusted Data Source: Bloomberg
Economic Update: Inflation Sector YOY % Price Changes CPI and CPIX* YOY % Change 3.5 10.3 Energy 3.0 3.4 Shelter 2.5 2.9 Wages 2.0 2.7 Services Percent 1.5 2.7 CPI 1.0 2.7 Education 1.4 0.5 Food CPI CPIX -0.1 0.0 Communication -1.5 Apparel -0.5 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 -4 -1 2 5 8 11 14 Percent *CPIX: Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy Data Source: Bloomberg
Economic Update: Dollar and Commodities Gold and Oil Dollar Index 106 $2,000 $120 104 Gold $110 102 $1,800 100 Oil $100 98 96 $1,600 $90 94 Gold-Per Ounce Oil-Per Barrel 92 $80 Index Value $1,400 90 88 $70 86 $1,200 $60 84 82 $50 $1,000 80 78 $40 76 $800 74 $30 72 70 $600 $20 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Data Source: Bloomberg
Economic Update: Sector Returns YTD 8/31/18 As of: 20 18.4 16.2 15.3 15 9.7 9.7 10 Percent 5 3.4 3.2 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0 -1.1 -1.6 -1.6 -3.2 -5 -4.7 -5.3 -5.2 -7.0 -7.7 -10 Data Source: Bloomberg
Economic Update: S&P 500 Returns 8/31/18 As of: YTD S&P 500 Major Sector Returns 25 19.2 19.0 20 14.0 15 13.0 10 Percent 4.5 5 3.2 2.7 2.3 0 -1.2 -5 -4.2 -10 Data Source: Bloomberg
Economic Update: Yield Curve FYTD U.S. Treasury Yield Curve 3.1 Maturity 6/29/18 8/31/18 Change 3M 1.92 2.10 0.18 2.9 6M 2.11 2.27 0.16 2.7 1Y 2.31 2.45 0.14 2.5 Percent 2Y 2.53 2.63 0.10 2.3 3Y 2.62 2.69 0.07 6/29/18 2.1 5Y 2.74 2.74 0.00 8/31/18 10Y 2.86 2.86 0.00 1.9 30Y 2.99 3.02 0.03 1.7 3M6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 10Y 30Y Data Source: Bloomberg Figures may not total due to rounding
Economic Update: Interest Rates U.S. Treasury Yields: 2Y and 5Y U.S. Treasury Yields: 3M and 1Y 3.00 1Y 3.25 3.00 3M 2.50 2.75 2.50 2.00 2.25 2.00 1.50 Percent Percent 1.75 1.50 1.00 1.25 1.00 0.50 0.75 5Y 0.50 0.00 2Y 0.25 -0.50 0.00 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 May-18 Jul-18 Data Source: Bloomberg
Economic Update: Agency and Corporate Spreads Spread*: 1-5 Yr Corporate vs Treasury Spread*: 1-5 Yr Agency vs Treasury 30 225 200 25 175 20 Basis Point Spread Basis Point Spread 150 15 125 100 10 7 75 57 5 50 25 0 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 *BofA/Merrill Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury) *BofA/Merrill Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury) Agency (GVP0) Corporate A-AAA (CV10) Data Source: Bloomberg
Summary Portfolio Characteristics Core Los Angeles Reserve Total General Los Angeles Core Benchmark * Reserve Benchmark # Portfolio Market Value $2,452,701,469 -- $6,707,130,996 -- $9,159,832,466 Book Value $2,460,652,604 -- $6,843,454,336 -- $9,304,106,939 Variance ($7,951,134) -- ($136,323,339) -- ($144,274,474) Mkt Value % of Total 26.8% -- 73.2% -- 100% Average Maturity (Yrs)** 0.38 0.24 2.79 2.78 2.15 Effective Duration** 0.39 0.24 2.66 2.64 2.05 Weighted Purchase Yield## 1.66% -- 1.92% -- 1.85% *Core Benchmark: 3 Month T-Bill (G0O1 ICE BofAML Index) #Reserve Benchmark: 1-5 Year Govt/Corp A-AAA (BU10 ICE BofAML Index) **Average Maturity after rebalancing for the indexes--Portfolios based upon trade date holdings, Core Average Maturity includes checking ## Weighted Purchase Yield for Core does not include checking
Total General Portfolio: Maturity Distribution 30% 25% 20% 8/31/18 15% 7/31/18 10% 5% 0% 0-.25 .25 to .5 .5 to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 5+ Years 0-.25 .25 to .5 .5 to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 5+ 8/31/18 12.8% 4.1% 9.8% 24.1% 20.4% 15.3% 13.4% 7/31/18 13.6% 3.0% 10.1% 24.8% 19.8% 16.4% 12.4% Variance -0.8% 1.1% -0.2% -0.7% 0.7% -1.1% 1.1%
*Calculated using par values, includes checking Total General Portfolio: Maturity Distribution by Month Millions 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 Sep-18 787 Oct-18 300 Nov-18 87 Dec-18 105 Jan-19 85 Feb-19 190 Mar-19 170 Apr-19 105 May-19 165 Jun-19 185 Jul-19 110 Aug-19 172 Sep-19 165 Oct-19 202 Nov-19 160 Dec-19 169 Jan-20 180 Combined Maturity Distribution* Feb-20 150 Mar-20 245 Apr-20 135 May-20 186 Jun-20 321 Jul-20 185 Aug-20 140 Sep-20 150 Oct-20 115 Nov-20 157 Month Dec-20 140 Jan-21 170 Feb-21 270 Mar-21 120 Apr-21 170 May-21 151 Jun-21 142 Jul-21 125 Aug-21 200 Sep-21 55 Oct-21 110 Nov-21 200 Dec-21 72 Jan-22 192 Feb-22 165 Mar-22 100 Apr-22 170 May-22 160 Jun-22 86 Jul-22 70 Aug-22 60 Sep-22 25 Oct-22 75 Nov-22 105 Dec-22 60 Jan-23 105 Feb-23 175 Mar-23 85 Apr-23 165 May-23 120 Jun-23 70 Jul-23 95 Aug-23 160 Sep-23 0
Sector Allocations: Total General Portfolio August 31, 2018 Sector 8/31/2018 7/31/2018 Variance Bank Dep 1.0% Bank Deposits 1.0% 1.3% -0.3% CDARS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% CP 8.6% Commercial Paper 8.6% 6.4% 2.2% Corporate Notes 15.9% 16.1% -0.1% CORP 15.9% MMF ABS 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1% MMFs 0.1% 1.4% -1.4% ABS Agy Tsy 1.2% 8.9% Negotiable CDs 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 64.3% Agencies* 8.9% 11.2% -2.4% Treasuries 64.3% 62.2% 2.1% Total 100.0% 100.0% *Includes Supranational and Municipal Securities Figures may not total due to rounding
Sector Allocations: Core Portfolio Core Portfolio August 31, 2018 Sector 8/31/2018 7/31/2018 Variance Bank Deposits 3.8% 5.0% -1.2% CDARS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bank Dep Tsy Commercial Paper 32.1% 24.2% 8.0% 3.8% 44.0% Corporate Notes 10.3% 8.9% 1.4% MMFs 0.2% 5.4% -5.2% Negotiable CDs 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Agy CP Agencies* 9.5% 17.7% -8.2% 9.5% 32.1% Corp Treasuries 44.0% 38.8% 5.2% 10.3% Total 100.0% 100.0% MMF 0.2% *Includes Supranational and Municipal Securities Figures may not total due to rounding
Sector Allocations: Purchase Yield vs. Weighted Average Maturity Core Portfolio 2.2% Bubble size = Sector's % of Portfolio Corp 2.0% CP Sector WAM (Yrs.) Purchase Yield % of Portfolio* Agy 1.8% Negotiable CDs 0.00 0.00 0.0% Purchase Yield Corporate Notes 0.56 1.91% 10.7% 1.6% Commercial Paper 0.05 1.99% 33.4% Money Market 0.01 1.40% 0.2% 1.4% Tsy Agencies** 0.16 1.88% 9.9% MMF Treasuries 0.66 1.32% 45.8% 1.2% Total 0.40 1.66% 100.0% 1.0% -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 *Based on Market Value WAM Years **Includes Supranational Securities Figures may not total due to rounding Does not include Checking and BNYM Sweep, CDARS included with CP
Recommend
More recommend
