Presentation to the California ISO Governing Board June 28, 2000 Presentation to ISO Governing Board 1
Equivalent $/Mwh Based on Generic $4/Kw-month 6000 5000 $4,800 4000 Equivalent $/Mwh 3000 $2,400 2000 $1,600 $1,200 $960 $800 1000 Current $750/Mwh Price Caps $686 $600 $533 $480 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Hours Utilized Presentation to ISO Governing Board 2
Actual CAISO Hourly Loads Above 40,000Mw April 1999 - March 2000 46,000 45,000 44,000 43,000 MW 42,000 41,000 40,000 39,000 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 Hours At or Above Load Level Presentation to ISO Governing Board 3
Average Cost per Mwh of $4/Kw-mo Based on CAlSO Load Shape 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 $/Mwh 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Last Megawatts of Supply Presentation to ISO Governing Board 4
June 13, 2000 Contingency Exposure $800.00 $700.00 $600.00 $500.00 Price $/Mwh $400.00 Day Ahead MCP Real Time Price $300.00 $200.00 $100.00 $- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour Presentation to ISO Governing Board 5
“To the extent buyer’s are hedged, price spikes in the energy market will not affect them” Presentation to ISO Governing Board 6
Concentration of Generation Ownership at the California ISO 30% 27% 24% 25% Percent Ownership 20% 15% 9% 9% 8% 10% 7% 6% 5% 3% 2% 1% 0% SCE PGE SDGE AES/Williams Duke Reliant Southern Dynegy Calpine Thermo Presentation to ISO Governing Board 7
Utilities’ Ability to Hedge High Energy Costs IOU Illustrative “Gross” Load 40,000 MW IOU IOU “Net” Load “Net” Short 20,000 MW Position 12,500 MW 7,500 MW IOU 20,000 MW BFM* Authority IOU Generation (owned & controlled) * CalPX Block Forward Market Presentation to ISO Governing Board 8
Q2 PV Nymex Futures Q3 PV Nymex Futures 160 $137.33 140 120 100 Close $/Mwh 80 60 $38.27 40 20 0 1/4/00 1/18/00 2/1/00 2/15/00 2/29/00 3/14/00 3/28/00 4/11/00 4/25/00 5/9/00 5/23/00 6/6/00 6/20/00 Date Presentation to ISO Governing Board 9
10 Presentation to ISO Governing Board
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