See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281626649 Presentation: Snow and Glacier Monitoring Conference Paper · October 2009 CITATIONS READS 0 122 1 author: A. V. Kulkarni Indian Institute of Science 223 PUBLICATIONS 4,652 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects: Risk Assessment of Moraine Dammed Glacier Lakes due to Climate Change View project Estimation and assessment of mass budget and runoff of glaciers in the Himalaya View project All content following this page was uploaded by A. V. Kulkarni on 09 September 2015. The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.
SNOW AND GLACIERS MONITORING ANIL V. KULKARNI PROJECT COORDINATOR SNOW AND GLACIER PROJECT SPACE APPLICATIONS CENTRE INDIAN SPACE RESEARCH ORGANISATION AHMEDABAD-380015, INDIA Presented at Himalayan Chief Ministers conclave on Indian Himalaya: Glaciers climate change and livelihood 29-30 October 2009, Shimla, Himachal Pradesh
GEOMORPHOLOGY OF HIMALAYAN GLACIERS: SAMUDRA TAPU GLACIER, H.P., INDIA Accumulation area Tributary glacier Moraine Ablation area Moraine-dammed lake
GLACIER FEATURES lake Snout Lateral moraine Tributary glacier Ablation area Accumulation area Snow line IRS LISS IV 26 Aug. 2008 Glacier boundary Zanskar basin (J & K)
SAMUDRA TAPU GLACIER, HIMACHAL PRADESH IRS LISS IV IMAGERY SEPTEMBER 16, 2006 Year Area of Glacier Cumulative Loss in Annual loss in (sq. km.) Area (ha) area (ha/y) 1976 72.41 --- ---- 1989 72.17 24 1.8 2000 71.93 48 2.1 2006 71.83 58 1.6
RETREAT OF GLACIERS IN INDIAN HIMALAYA Pindari 7 6 Samudra Tapu Hamta 5 4 Dokriani Bamak Gangotri 3 Sara Umaga 2 Parbati 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Retreat (m/y)
RETREAT OF PARBATI GLACIER Year Area Loss in area Cumulative Rate (sq. km) (sq. km) loss in m/yr. LISS-III and PAN1998 length (m) 1990 40.14 ----- ---- Dead ice zone 1998 38.21 1.93 459 57 2000 37.73 0.48 22 11 2001 36.87 0.84 97 97 2004 130 43 2006 76 38 Loss 1990-2006 784 49 AREA ALTITUDE DISTRIBUTION 5800 5800 LISS-IV: 2004 5600 5600 5400 5400 5200 5200 Altitude (m) Altitude (m) Dead ice zone Snow line altitude at the end of ablation season Snow line altitude at the end of ablation season 5000 5000 4800 4800 4600 4600 4400 4400 4200 4200 4000 4000 0 0 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 80 80 90 90 100 100 Cumulative percent area Cumulative percent area
ANNUAL LOSS OF GLACIER AREA IN INDIAN HIMALAYA 1962 - 2001/4 0.9 Mean rate of area loss 0.39 % per year 111 0.8 0.7 0.6 253 116 90 19 0.5 57 60 0.4 126 187 189 0.3 166 0.2 0.1 0 Chandra Gauriganga Bhaga Warwan Baspa Alaknanda Bhagarathi Tista Bhut Miyar Parbati
MOUNTAIN GLACIER RETREAT IN DIFFERENT REGIONS OF THE WORLD From: Racoviteanu et al. 2008
FRAGMENTATION OF GLACIER: CHENAB BASIN
FRAGMENTATION OF GLACIERS CHENAB BASIN (Kulkarni et al 2007) 200 1962 180 2001 160 140 No. of Glaciers 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.2 0.32 0.86 1.4 3.5 5.6 14.3 23 57 91 360 area (km^2)
CAUSES OF FRAGMENTATION 4300 4200 Height 4100 4000 3900 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 Melt in cm Glacier mass balance for 228 glaciers Ice melt near Gomukh, Gangotri glacier. distributed through out the globe, Cumulative mean ice loss is 20 m Less melt near Gomukh. (Source: Maruthi w.e. out of 100 m. Disintegrating et.al., 2003) many glaciers (Zemp et al., 2009) Fragmentation will have profound impact on glacial retreat. It effectively reduces depth, response time and accelerates retreat.
EFFECT OF FRAGMENTATION ON RETREAT: CHENAB 40 Area loss from 1962-2001 (%) 35 52H12003 30 1962 25 2004 20 15 52H12004 Glacial ice 10 5 0 <1 1 to 5 5 to 10 > 10 Glacier area (sq km) GLACIERS IN PARBATI BASIN Influence of glacier size on retreat 2.5 Fragmentation will have Loss in area in % Per year profound impact on glacial 2.0 retreat. It effectively reduces 1.5 depth, response time and 1.0 accelerates retreat. 0.5 0.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Glacier Area (sq km)
DEVELOPMENT OF MODEL TO ESTIMATE MASS BALANCE: BASPA BASIN Sept. 6, 5 (KULKARNI 1992, 2004) 60 R = 0.89 40 20 Mass balance (cm) 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 -20 -40 -60 -80 Sept. 6, 5 -100 -120 -140 Accumulation area ratio Chandra GLACIERS ZERO AAR: BHAGA: 18 CHANDRA: 4 BASPA 4 MEAN SP. MASS BALANCE: 19 GLACIRS BASPA BASIN 2001: - 40 cm 2002: -78 cm 2004: -57 cm Loss of glacial ice: 0.11735 cu km/year
CHANGES IN MASS BALANCE IN HIMALAYA 6000 6000 Snow line altitude at the end of summer on Warwan: 340 glaciers Warwan: 340 glaciers Chhotha Shigri glacier 5500 5500 2000-06 2000-06 5400 snow line altitude m 1975-90 1975-90 5000 5000 5300 5200 4500 4500 5100 5000 4000 4000 4900 4800 3500 3500 4700 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 3000 3000 Year of observation 0 0 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 80 80 90 90 100 100 In the Himalaya no systematic record is available. Maximum alt. of snow line is shifted from 4800 m to 5200 m from mid 1980 to 2008. This is significantly affecting mass balance BASPA: Snowline shift 4900- 5200 m between 1976 TO 2006 AAR FROM 0.7 TO 0.3.
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECEPITATION IN WESTERN HIMALAYA 1800 1800 1600 1600 Precipitation (cm) 1400 1400 1200 1200 1000 1000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 1988-89 1991-92 1994-95 1997-98 2000-01 2003-04 2006-07 Year From: Shekhar et. al., 2009
MODELING GLACIAL CHANGES PARBATI GLACIER OBSERVATIONS 23.7 km 2 Arial extent of glacier in 2001 3.56 km 2 Accumulation area in 2001 Accumulation Area Ratio in 2001 0.138 Estimated glacial mass balance 2001 -86 cm Estimated depth of glacier in 2001 126 m Measured rate of melting at snout -6 m/year Measured glacier length in 2001 10120 m PREDICTIONS Estimated response time from 2001 21 years Estimated loss in glacial length from 2001 to 2022 1461 m (69 m/y) VALIDATION Measured loss in glacial length from 2001 to 2006 206 m (41 m/y) Kulkarni et al., Current Science 88(11), 2005
SNOW STUDIES
FCC FCC NDSI SNOW COVER MONITORING USING NDSI METHOD DISCRIMINATION of SNOW and CLOUDs, SNOW UNDER MOUNTAIN SHADOW
Snow accumulation and ablation pattern in basins located in different parts of Himalaya Bhaga basin (10 Daily) Alaknanda basin (10 Daily) 100 100 % Areal extent of snow 80 % Areal extent of Snow 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 1-Oct 1-Dec 1-Feb 1-Apr 1-Jun 1-Oct 1-Dec 1-Feb 1-Apr 1-Jun Date Date 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 year 04-05 year05-06 year 06-07 Ravi basin (10 Daily) TISTA BASIN (COMPOSITE) 2004-2008 100 100 % AREAL EXTENT OF SNOW 80 80 % Areal extent of Snow 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 OCT DEC FEB APR JUN O N D J F M A M J 1-Oct 1-Dec 1-Feb 1-Apr 1-Jun MONTHS Date 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 Mean snow fall Western Himalaya: 2004-5: 739 cm; 2005-6: 606 cm; 2006-7: 596 cm
SNOW DEPLETION CURVE:BEAS BASIN ALTITUDE 3000-3600 m 16 INCREASE IN STREAM 14 RUNOFF OF BASPA Discharge (cumecs) 12 BASIN FOR 10 DECEMBER BETWEEN 8 1966 TO 1993 IS FROM 6 8 TO 14 CUMECS 4 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 85 88 90 92 Year of observations (Kulkarni et. al. 2002 and 2003) 5-yr running average December
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW AND GLACIER MELT RUNOFF MODEL FOR MICRO AND MINI RIVER BASINS (Kulkarni et. al. 2002)
SEASONAL SNOW AND GLACIER MELT RUNOFF MODELING (Pre-feasibility investigation, Autumn, winter, summer, Monsoon ) Q=c{a(T*G)}+c{S*W)-(M*Sw)} + (c*P*B) Where, Q = Average seasonal runoff (cu m/s) C = Runoff coefficient a = Melt factor (cm/degree C.d) T = Average seasonal degree-day (degree.day) G = Area of snow and glaciers (sq km) S = Area of seasonal snow (sq km) W = Water equivalent of winter snow fall (m) M = Winter snow melt (m) Sw= Snow cover in winter P = Average seasonal rainfall (m) B = Basin area without snow/glacier (sq m)
Validation of snow and glacier melt runoff model: Wangar Gad basin (Rathore and Kulkarni, 2009) 6 4.9 % 4.7 % 5 4.1 % 4 3.4 % Error (%) 3 2 1 0 Autumn Winter Monsoon Summer
Estimated seasonal runoff (cumecs) in Wangar Gad basin due to rise in temperature by 1oC (Rathore and Kulkarni, 2009) 25 20 -28 % Runoff (Cumec) -8 % 15 10 -20 % 5 -18 % 0 Autumn Monsoon Winter Summer 1 2 3 4 Season
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