Presentation on ‘Myanmar in Transition: Implications for Indian Diplomacy’ Dr V.S. Seshadri 11 March 2014 at Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati 1
Myanmar Factsheet Population 60mn 6,76,577 sq. Km (1/5 th size of India, 4½ times Bangladesh) Area Demography Ethnic Groups 135 in total-majority Burmans. Others Shan, Kachin, Kayah, Kayin, Chin, Mon and Rakhine. Religion Buddhist; 80%, Christians & Muslims; 4 to 5% each and Hindu; 2% Borders China – 2,204 Km. Thailand – 2,107 Km. India – 1643 Km. Laos – 248 Km and Bangladesh – 271 Km Administrative States (7): Chin, Kachin, Kayah, Kayin, Mon, Rakhine & Shan Divisions Regions (7): Ayeyarwaddy, Bago, Magway, Mandalay, Sagaing, Tanintharyi & Yangon Natural Resources - Vast reserves Petroleum & Natural Gas (natural gas – 283.2 Bn Cubic Meters), Gold, precious stones - 50% forest cover Per capita GDP US$ 760 – Presently categorized as LDC 2
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Independence and Military Coup o Differences between Burman dominated majority and ethnic minorities have long persisted but exacerbated past 1948 in the new Union. o Shans, Kachins, Chins, Karens, Karennis, Rakhines, Mons comprising over 30% of population inhabit over 50% of the geographic area which is hilly and rings the Burmans in the plains in the form of an inverted U. Gen Aung San and majority of interim cabinet assassinated prior o independence. o Resultant ethnic insurgency as well as problems from the uprising by Communist Party of Burma and factionalism led to PM U Nu inviting military to bring order in 1958. Subsequent military coup by Gen Ne Win in 1962 followed by 26 years of o ‘Burmese Way to Socialism 4
Emergence of ASSK and Gen. Than Shwe o 1988 – 1990. Gen Ne Win hands over and Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) who returned to the country for tending to her mother joins political arena. o ASSK’s National League for Democracy (NLD) sweeps 1990 elections. o Military refuses to handover power. 21 year military rule with Gen Than Shwe taking over in 1992. o ASSK under house arrest for over 15 years. o 1988 student leaders and other opposition leaders also under house arrest. o Host of ceasefire agreements with different ethnic groups resulting in relative o stability. Subsequent hopes for economic reforms or ethnic reconciliation dashed by 1997-98 o financial crisis, purge of PM Khin Nyunt in 2004 and saffron Revolution 2007. 5
Transition from Military Rule o Military regime probably skeptical of sustainability in 21 st century. Even Cambodia and Laos were seen developing faster. o Initiates drafting of new Constitution in 2003 as part of a ‘7 Step’ roadmap to ‘Discipline flourishing Democracy’. o Constitution approved in 2008 referendum despite ongoing cyclone ‘Nargis’. cyclone ‘Nargis’. o Constitution provides for continued participation of military in governance (25% reservations) o Elections held as per 2008 constitution in November 2010. o New leadership handpicked by General Than Shwe as part of the ‘6 th Step’ to ensure smooth transition. o President U Thein Sein, earlier PM of SPDC takes over as new Presdient on 30 March 2011 and SPDC disbanded. 6
Initiatives announced by New Government o Path breaking 31 March 2011 speech by President Thein Sein: - � Good governance and clean govt. � Strengthen pillars on Legislative, Executive and Judiciary fronts. � Rule of Law. � Respect for role of media. � Ending corruption. 7
On-going Reforms Political o Dialogue with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi – eventually led to NLD joining political process through bye-election. o Release of political prisoners – most released, in phases. o Parliamentary process – Ninth sessions held so far has come a long way with more open debate and discussion. o Loosening of media control. Daily private newpapers from 1 st April 2013. o Response from international community in the form of removal of most sanctions. 8
On-going Reform Internal Peace and Reconciliation March 2012 – President announces a three stages roadmap 1. (a) State level ceasefire. (b) Union level dialogue to include no secession, anti drug / economic cooperation, political accommodation, constitutional amendment. (c) Agreement in Parliament. (c) Agreement in Parliament. 2. State level ceasefire agreement reached with all major groups except Kachins with whom a 7 point agreement reached but not called a ceasefire agreement. Some clashes still reported. 3. Talks progressing towards a national ceasefire agreement – Prospects brightens 4. Rohingaya issue a matter for concern. Some communal clashes have also followed. Inter faith dialogues are taking place. Issue however may need ……………………… solution. 9
On-going Reform 2008 Consitutional Review 1. Joint Committee with 109 Parliament members set up to recommend proposals for constitutional reform. Report submitted on 31 st January 2014. inconclusive. A 32 member implementation committee set up. 2. Possible areas of focus. (i) Amendment of Article 59(f) that bars citizens having close (i) Amendment of Article 59(f) that bars citizens having close relatives who are foreign nationals from being eligible for posts such as President, Vice- President – this will depend ASSK eligibility. (ii) 25% reservation of seats for military. (iii) More decentralisation. (iv) More autonomy for ethnic groups – demand for ‘federal Union’ and ‘federal army’. 10
On-going Reform Economic Reforms o Privatisation of several Government owned buildings and some factories. o Unifying exchange rates – Kyat now on managed float. o Rationalisation of taxation – Incentives for exports. o Enacting of Foreign Investment Law. o Clearing of some external debt – has enabled Myanmar to receive ADB / World Bank assistance. o Autonomy for Central Bank. o Moves for Telecom, Port, Airport modernisation. o SEZs at Thillawa, Dawei and Kyaukphyu. 11
On-going Reforms Economic 2011-12 to 2015-16: 5 Year Plan o 7.7% annual increase in GDP. o 1.7 total increase in per capita GDP o Reducing share of agriculture in GDP from 36.4% to 29.2% o Increase manufacturing from 26% to 32% and Services from 37.6% to 38.7% 12
On-going Reforms Constraints (i) Culture of decision making still remains very centralised without sufficient delegation. (ii) Some friction between Parliament and the Executive – constructive tension? Executive – constructive tension? (iii) Severe lack of expertise and skills and institutional capacities. (iv) Case for greater decentralisation of powers to regions and states. (v) Absence of adequate infrastructure. 13
2015 Elections o Political parties already strategising. o Ethnic parties have also formed Federal Union party. Union party. o Will NLD win a majority? o USDP 14
India-Myanmar Bilateral Relations Key determinants � A 1643 kilometer long and porous border as well as maritime boundary. � Strong Historic, Cultural, Religious links. � Myanmar gateway to South East Asia, Both are also members of BCIM and BIMSTEC. members of BCIM and BIMSTEC. � Strategic location from security perspective. Insurgents from our militant groups tend to take shelter across border. � Constructive engagement over last two decades – several development cooperation programmes. � Sizable people of Indian origin. 15
Myanmar’s External Relations o New government has reached out to tall countries to make friends. o Many more Foreign embassies in Myanmar. o Many offering technical and financial assistance – economic opportunities a draw. economic opportunities a draw. o ASEAN Chair this year. o China continues to play significant part although entry of others has diminished preponderance. o Myanmar striving steadily to become part of international mainstream. 16
Strengthening of Relations under New Government High level Visits – Increased Frequency President U Thein Sein visited India in October 2011 and December o 2012. o PM Manmohan Singh visited Myanmar in May 2012 (after 25 years by another PM) and 3-5 March 2014 for BIMSTEC Summit. Myanmar Lower House peaker Thura U Shwe Mann led a delegation in Myanmar Lower House peaker Thura U Shwe Mann led a delegation in o o December 2011, Upper House Speaker in December 2013 and our own Speaker Smt. Meera Kumar in February 2013. Visits by Foreign Ministers from both sides. o Daw Aung San Suu Kyi visited in November 2012 o Myanmar Human Rights Commission delegation in May 2012. o Myanmar Chief of Armed forces Vice Senior General Min Aung Hlaing o visited in August 2012 and all our service chiefs have visited as well. Raksha Mantri in January 2013. 17
Development Cooperation Initiatives Upto 2011 � Kaladan Multimodal Transport project – began in December 2010. � Various Capacity Building Programmes, including setting up four training institutions in IT, entrepreneurship development, English Language and Industrial Training. and Industrial Training. � 250 fellowship under ITEC / Colombo Plan annually. � Extension of concessionary loans for several projects including revamping refinery, truck assembly etc. � Tamu-Kalay/Kalewa Friendship Road construction. � Restoration of Ananda Temple in Bagan 18
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