Preparing for Water Scarcity: Learning from Californias Recent - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Preparing for Water Scarcity: Learning from California’s Recent Drought EPA Grant Kickoff Meeting  March 30, 2016 Jay Lund, Director of UC Davis Watershed Sciences Center and PPIC Adjunct Fellow With support from the US Environmental Protection Agency (under Assistance Agreement No. 83586701)

Outline  California’s latest drought  Drought impacts and vulnerabilities  Project scope and timeline  Progress to date and next steps 2

Droughts are a recurring feature of California’s variable climate SOURCE: Western Regional Climate Center. 3

California just experienced four years of a severe drought Precipitation Reservoir storage Lowest (Nov. 1977) 40 35 35 30 30 25 Million acre feet (MAF) Precipitation (inches) Reservoir storage 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 SOURCE: California Department of Water Resources. NOTE: Precipitation is measured by summing the Northern Sierra 8-station and San Joaquin 5-station precipitation indices. Reservoir storage is the sum of monthly storage in 154 major reservoirs within the state (excluding storage in the Colorado River Basin) on the first day of the month. 4

Recent rains filled some major reservoirs, but we are not caught up yet 5

High temps, reduced snowpack, low flows = “drought of the future” Annual average temperature Historical average 62 61 60 Temperature (F) 59 58 57 56 55 54 2015 1931 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 SOURCE: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 6

Outline  California’s latest drought  Drought impacts and vulnerabilities  Project scope and timeline  Progress to date and next steps 7

Cities were better prepared for this drought  Major investments since the early 1990s helped: – Conservation (esp. indoors) – Diversified water portfolios – Regional infrastructure development  2014: handful of isolated cities (e.g., Santa Cruz) in crisis  2015: 25% avg. conservation mandated statewide California Journal , 1991 – Successful, but fiscal fallout 8

Farms have been coping with large (~50%) surface water cutbacks  Net water reductions ~10% – Groundwater pumping +70% – Some trading (~5%) – Some fallowing (~550K acres, 6%)  Economic losses moderate: – Ag costs (4% of revenues) – Farm jobs (5%) – State GDP (<0.1%)  Unmitigated damages – Subsidence (infrastructure) – Well impacts (incl. drinking water for rural residents) Source: NYT 9

Rural communities have been hit hard Reported dry wells So far…  – ~3,000 dry domestic wells, 100+ small systems in trouble – Strong emergency response – But time lags still too long Continued vulnerabilities…  – Increase in dry wells – Worsening air quality – Economic hardship SOURCE: CA Office of Planning and Research NOTE: Map from Feb 2016 10

Ecosystems are most vulnerable: rivers, wetlands, forests So far…  – Dramatic reduction in flows and habitat – Major forest die-offs – Increased wildfire risk – Rescues and monitoring – Some innovations in waterbird management 11

Dry, hot conditions pose enduring ecosystem risks Native fish at near-term risk of extinction from dry, hot conditions  18 fish at risk of extinction – Need for strategic flows, conservation hatcheries  High risks of waterbird mortality – Need for strategic flows to maintain wetlands – Severe wildfire risk, with some permanent losses of conifer forests 12

Outline  California’s latest drought  Drought impacts and vulnerabilities  Project scope and timeline  Progress to date and next steps 13

Project objectives  Seeks to improve drought planning and emergency response in California and the West  Four interrelated objectives: – Review drought impacts – Assess systems response – Identify innovations – Test and refine with dry runs 14

Basic project structure Research team:  Core team + 8 area teams: seeking cross-fertilization – Over 25 researchers from 8 institutions Research approach:  “Synthesis - plus” to inform policy – Data analysis, modeling – Policy workshops for two-way insights Timeline, outputs:  3-year timeline with range of products (fact sheets, technical reports, etc.) and outreach (blogs, events) 15

Topic areas  Hydrology and climatology – Causes of this drought – Implications of current drought for future droughts  Managing supply and quality – Water rights, trading, and quality: law, institutions, accounting – Urban response – Agricultural response – Rural issues – Energy sector response  Managing ecosystems – Aquatic ecosystems (rivers and wetlands) – Forests and wildfires 16

Drought Review and Systems Assessment Climate & Hydrology workshops Complete technical reports Complete technical report Water rights & trading workshops Aquatic ecosystems workshops Agriculture workshops Urban areas workshops Rural communities workshops Hydropower & energy workshops Wildfires workshops Identify Innovations Draft & review technical reports Dry Runs Dry run workshops (3) Draft & review technical report Project-related Outreach (blogs, op-eds, policy briefs, briefings, conferences) Oct Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr 2018 2015 2017 2018 2016 2016 2017 Team- Team- Team- Full-team Full-team Full-team leaders leaders leaders meeting meeting meeting meeting meeting meeting Science & Science & Science & Policy Science & Policy Policy Advisory Policy Advisory Advisory Group Advisory Group Group Meeting Group Meeting Meeting Meeting Project-related Outreach Dry Runs Identify Innovations Drought Review and Systems Assessment

Outline  California’s latest drought  Drought impacts and vulnerabilities  Project scope and timeline  Progress to date and next steps 18

Hydrology and climate  Research in progress: 2070-2099, Medium Warming Scenario 25% snowpack remaining – Characterize latest drought along different dimensions (precipitation, snowpack, temperature) – Assess likely conditions of future droughts, informed by climate models  Next steps: – Hold workshop on drought characteristics for future planning – Develop scenarios of future droughts for use in dry runs SOURCE: Cayan, Dan et al. (2009), CA Climate Adaptation Strategy 19

Water rights, markets, and quality  Research in progress: Water purchases by user group – Assess drought lessons Environment 2,500 for water allocation Other farmers Average annual purchases (taf committed) San Joaquin Valley farmers institutions 2,000 Mixed purpose – Identify best practices in Cities water accounting for 1,500 managing scarce supplies 1,000  Next steps: – Hold event on water 500 accounting 0 recommendations 1987-1994 1995-2002 2003-2011 2012-2014 20

Agricultural, rural issues  Research in progress: – Focus on the San Joaquin Valley – Outline regional challenges – Provide solution context (e.g., 2014 Sustainable Groundwater Management Act) – Lay out alternative paths  Next steps: – Hold regional workshops – Initiate more in-depth analysis on solution paths 21

Urban water use  Research in progress: – Survey California’s 400+ urban water agencies to understand drought impacts and responses – Supplement with urban data (finance, water use, plans)  Next steps: – Hold regional workshops – Report on state, local policy and management lessons 22

Aquatic ecosystems (rivers and wetlands)  Research in progress: – Examine environmental water regulations during drought in three watersheds – Assess lessons from Victoria, Australia, for environmental management in CA  Next steps: – Hold workshops on planning for droughts and allocating water for the environment 23

Forest and wildfires  Research in progress: – Draw lessons from the latest drought for moving from fire suppression to forest management & fire prevention  Next steps – Hold workshop w/ state, federal, private forest managers, NGOs, and researchers – Focus on reducing barriers, raising incentives for forest management 24

Some reflections on drought  Droughts test water systems, and catalyze innovations and adaptations. Every drought is different. It has always been so.  Statewide economic impacts of drought have been far less than one would have expected.  Ecosystem impacts of drought were often greater, and less well prepared for.  Problems and successes suggest directions for improvement across all levels of government. 25

Thank you! 26

Notes on the use of these slides These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid misinterpretations, please contact: Jay Lund (jrlund@ucdavis.edu) Thank you for your interest in this work. 27