Power Grids in Asia Power Grids in Asia Mode of operation and dynamics Mode of operation and dynamics Stephen Wilson Stephen Wilson ECONOMIC CONSULTING ECONOMIC C NSULTING ASSOC SSOCIATES LIMI ES LIMITED TED 41 Lonsdale Road London NW6 6RA UK tel +44 20 7604 4545 / fax +44 20 7604 4547 www.eca-uk.com Presentation at a workshop on Presentation at a workshop on Power Grids and CDM Methodologies Power Grids and CDM Methodologies Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, 8 December 2004 8 December 2004 1 (C) 2004. Economic Consulting Associates Ltd
Outline Outline � Key issues and questions Key issues and questions � Four example countries Four example countries � Implications for CDM projects Implications for CDM projects seeking to avoid electricity seeking to avoid electricity generation emissions in Asia generation emissions in Asia 2 (C) 2004. Economic Consulting Associates Ltd
Key Key Drawing on the Drawing on the Baseline Recommendations Baseline Recommendations paper of paper of Kartha, Laza Kartha, Lazarus and Bosi, Energy rus and Bosi, Energy Policy Policy 32, 2004: 32, 2004: issues issues � Build, operating or combined margin: Build, operating or combined margin: defining the marginal plant defining the marginal plant � now � in the future � Baseline dynamics and crediting lifetimes Baseline dynamics and crediting lifetimes � will new construction change the marginal plant? � will this occur within the next 7 or 10 years? � Geographic aggregation, are plants dispatched Geographic aggregation, are plants dispatched � by individual state/provinc state/province only (sub-national)? � by multi-state/province regions regions (wider sub-national)? � across a national national grid? � with international international imports and exports? 3 (C) 2004. Economic Consulting Associates Ltd
Key Key � Supply-demand balance Supply-demand balance � Is there adequate generation or a shortage? questions questions � If a shortage, is this met by off-grid generation? � Wh What is at is the current generation plant mix? the current generation plant mix? � % of coal, gas-fired, hydro, nuclear, other � What is the current generation fuel mix? What is the current generation fuel mix? � % of coal, gas-fired, hydro, nuclear, other � What is the current dispatch method? What is the current dispatch method? � bid-based, economic least-cost or other � Dy Dynam namics cs � What is the rate of growth and additions? � Will the additional plant change dispatch? � How sensititive are future emissions to: How sensititive are future emissions to: � additional plant? � the dispatch method? 4 (C) 2004. Economic Consulting Associates Ltd
Example Asian countries Example Asian countries Country Installed capacity GW Growth Doubling % pa 2 nd largest China ~ 380 7y 10% =6 th (with Germany) ~ 112 India 11y 6% Thailand Mid-sized ~ 25 10y 7% China Vietnam Small ~10 8y 9% India Vietnam Thailand 5 (C) 2004. Economic Consulting Associates Ltd
China China Huge system 300+ GW in Huge system 300+ GW in � 2002, ~380 GW in 2004 2002, ~380 GW in 2004 2nd largest in t 2nd largest in the world he world 35 35 � High developing country High developing country � growth rates growth rates especially in the especially in t 47 47 coastal south and east coastal sout h and east 4 20 Large income and Large income and � development development d dispa sparities ities 25 63 63 between coastal and interior between coastal and interior 41 41 provinces provinces <1 10 53 53 12 2 Year 2002 values in GW 6 (C) 2004. Economic Consulting Associates Ltd
China China Huge system 300+ GW in Huge system 300+ GW in � 2002, ~380 GW in 2004 2002, ~380 GW in 2004 North- North- 2nd largest 2nd largest in t in the world he world � east east High developing country High developing country � growth rates growth rates especially in t especially in the North North coastal sout coastal south and east h and east Xinjiang Shandong Large income and Large income and North- � development d development dispa sparities ities Central Central East East west between coastal and interior between coastal and interior provinces provinces Tibet Regi Re gional onal gri grids, s, � Fuijian with weak interconnect wit weak interconnections ons between provinces and bet een provinces and South South largely non-existent largely non-existent int interconnections between rconnections between grids grids Hainan 7 (C) 2004. Economic Consulting Associates Ltd
China China West-to-East power West-to-East powe � transmission project transmission project in 10 th th Five-year Plan in 10 Five-year Plan North North channel channel 3 major po 3 major power wer � transmission transmission ‘ch ‘chann nnels’ els’ Central Central Majo Major 500kV AC an r 500kV AC and channel channel � some DC in some DC investments vestments South South channel channel The 3 ‘channels’ plus north-south interconnections will eventually form the national grid 8 (C) 2004. Economic Consulting Associates Ltd
China China � Sti Still predominantly state- ll predominantly state-owned, owned, but but t trend is end is towards privat wards privatisat isation ion � State-power generation as State-power generation asset sets divest divested int ed into 5 5 gencos gencos � two large grid companies formed two large grid companies formed � regional grids being t regional grids being tied t ed toget gether er � western resources (gas and hydro) being western resources (gas and hydro) being developed and ‘forced’ developed and ‘forced’ i in t to east eastern provinces ern provinces � di dispat spatch stil ch still i l involv volves ‘shari es ‘sharing’ ng’ � generation shortage generation shortage in some areas (eg: in some areas (eg: Guangdong) angdong) � CD CDM unli M unlikely to change hydro dispatc ely to change hydro dispatch, gas gas will be must-run, so the ‘marginal’ plant is will be must-run, so th e ‘marginal’ plant is likely to be coal for the foreseeable future likely to be coal for the foreseeable future 9 (C) 2004. Economic Consulting Associates Ltd
Context: generation ownership Context: generation ownership in China’s electricity sector in China’s electricity sector Foreign privately controlled ~ 300 GW Chinese privately controlled Privatisation trend non-SPC, State-owned Capacity SPC minority-owned SPC Involvement ~ 150 GW SPC controlled SPC wholly-owned 0 GW 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Ownership SPC Non-SPC SOE Non-SOE Chinese Foreign Private 10 (C) 2004. Economic Consulting Associates Ltd
China: national grid China: national grid • Generation already separated from transmission • State Power’s generation assets allocated to five companies, transmission State Power assets to two companies Grid Corporation • State Power to be a transco and system operator • The 18 200 MW Three Gorges project will play a major role Southern Power at the heart of the China’s Grid Company future national grid Guangdong and south China initially separate from ‘national grid’ 11 (C) 2004. Economic Consulting Associates Ltd
China: special case of Guangdong China: special case of Guangdong 100% 1 3 3 75% captive utility Plant Type plants plants 50% 12 9 Centrally Non-centrally dispatched dispatched 25% 1 2 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Dispatch Hydro A large proportion of on-grid capacity in GW Thermal Guangdong is not centrally dispatched Nuclear 12 (C) 2004. Economic Consulting Associates Ltd
India India Very large system 112 GW Very large system 112 GW � 31 31 Thermal d Thermal dominated minated 2 2 � 17 17 High developin High developing co coun untry try � growth rates growth rates 32 32 5 regi 5 r gional gri al grids, s, � impro proved an ed and im d impro provin ing interconnections and dispa interconnections a dispatch ch 29 29 co-ord co-ordination within and ination within and between bet een regio regions Year 2002 values in GW 13 (C) 2004. Economic Consulting Associates Ltd
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