Analysis of the effects of the Thai Power Development Plan 2015 on air quality from 2016 to 2036 using GAINS and CAMx Jared Allard, Michael Alleyne, Daniel Day, Robert Gourley, Thao Pham, Thanonphat Boonman, Sebastien Bonnet, Savitri Garivait University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, KMUTT Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment
Abstract: Air pollution is a serious issue that affects many parts of the world, Southeast Asia in particular. Nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter, sulfur oxides, and other emissions have negative impacts on human Methodology health as well as overall environmental quality. The major sources in Thailand are open burning and fossil PDP fuel combustion, both in vehicles and power generation. Given increasing actual and projected GDP growth, subsequent increases in energy consumption are inevitable. The power generation system must GAINS grow and expand as well to meet changes in demand from industrial, commercial, and residential customers. The Ministry of Energy of Thailand has published the Power Development Plan 2015 (PDP Fuel Data 2015) to outline policies and goals of the growing power generation and transmission systems Scenario throughout the nation. Notably, the plan involves increasing the use of coal-fired generation. Using both Development the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies Model (GAINS) and the Comprehensive GAINS Results Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx), we have compared two different emissions scenarios: one with standard emission control technology, and another with maximum emission controls. The CAMx effectiveness of emission control technology varied by region and pollutant. The greatest increase in air CAMx quality was located around Rayongprovince of the eastern region. For PM10 in the north, however, Results emission control technologies did little to increase air quality because the main source of pollutant, Discussion biomass burning, was left unabaited. This forecast of air quality can show possible impacts from future air quality in Thailand and regions that may benefit from added emission control technology in the future. Conclusion
Methodology Analysis of Thai Collection of Scenario PDP fuel share development Methodology PDP GAINS Fuel Data Interpretation CAMx GAINS Scenario Development of results (concentrations) (emissions) GAINS Results CAMx CAMx Results Discussion Draw Future Study Conclusion conclusions
Thai Power Development Plan 2015 • Published in 2015, projected growth of Methodology power sector to 2036 PDP GAINS • Highlights changes in fuel share (coal, Fuel Data natural gas, etc.) Scenario Development GAINS Results • 3 mains goals CAMx – Increase energy security CAMx Results Discussion – Maintain reasonable cost to consumer Conclusion – Reduce Greenhouse Gas emissions
PDP 2015 Revision Methodology PDP2010 Rev3 PDP2015 Change PDP Year Peak (MW) Energy (GWh) Peak (MW) Energy (GWh) Peak Energy GAINS % % Fuel Data 2016 32,000 211,000 30,000 198,000 -6 -6 Scenario Development 2026 46,000 305,000 41,000 268,000 -11 -12 GAINS Results 2030 52,000 347,000 44,000 292,000 -15 -16 CAMx 2036 - - 50,000 326,000 - - CAMx Results Discussion Conclusion
PDP net capacity Generating Capacity contributors during (MW) 2015-2036 Methodology PDP GAINS ~~Existing capacity as of December 2014 38,000 Fuel Data Scenario ~~New capacity during 2015-2036 57,000 Development ~~New capacity during 2015-2036 57,000 GAINS Results ~~Retired Capacity during 2015-2036 -25,000 CAMx CAMx Results Discussion ~~Total Capacity in 2036 70,000 Conclusion
~~New capacity during 2015-2036 57,000 Breakdown of capacity to be added during 2015-2036 Methodology (Total=57,000 MW) PDP GAINS Fuel Data Scenario Development GAINS Results CAMx CAMx Results Discussion Conclusion
GAINS model Methodology PDP GAINS Fuel Data Analyze Ran model Input Obtained Scenario Raw fuel ETP and for Development scenarios emissions data TCAP specified GAINS into GAINS output Results project time scale CAMx On all pollutant CAMx Results Applied fuel data and species in all GAINS Discussion Developed emission Used as input to Analyze and format controls to make regions between Conclusion controls (CLE & MFR) CAMx model to GAINS input file 2016 and 2036 on GAINS inputs five year intervals
GAINS Regions NHIG Methodology PDP NEPL GAINS Fuel Data Scenario BMR Development CVAL GAINS Results CAMx CAMx Results Discussion SPEN Conclusion
Input Fuel Data to GAINS 2036 Fuel Consumption 2036 Fuel Consumption 036 ue Co su pt o 2016 Fuel Consumption 2036 Fuel Consumption 2036 Fuel Consumption 2 2016 Fuel Consumption 2016 Fuel Consumption 180 Methodology 180 180 180 500 500 160 500 500 160 160 PDP 140 140 140 400 400 GAINS 4 400 400 120 120 120 Petajoules Petajoules Petajoules Petajoules 100 100 300 300 Fuel Data Petajoules Petajoules Petajoules 80 80 80 100 300 300 Scenario jo jo 200 00 Development 60 60 80 GAINS 40 40 100 100 Results 200 2 200 20 20 60 CAMx 0 0 0 40 CAMx 100 100 Results 20 Discussion 0 0 0 Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural Gas atura atura BMR BMR s CVAL CVAL NHIG NHIG Diesel Diesel D Diesel NEPL NEPL l SPEN SPEN Fuel Oil Fuel Oil Fuel Oil Biomass/Renewable Biom Biomass/Renewable mass/Renewable BMR BMR Co C BMR BMR Hard Coal Hard Coal Hard Coal CVAL CVAL NHIG NHIG IG wn NEPL Brown Coal IG Brown Coal Brown Coal NEPL NEPL NEPL SPEN SPEN Conclusion BMR BMR BMR CVAL CVAL CVAL NHIG NHIG NHIG NEPL NEPL NEPL SPEN SPEN SPEN
Scenario Development Methodology PDP GAINS Fuel Data Scenario Development GAINS Results CAMx CAMx Results Discussion Conclusion
Scenario Development - CLE Methodology PDP GAINS Fuel Data Scenario Development GAINS Results CAMx CAMx Results Discussion Conclusion
Scenario Development - MFR Methodology PDP GAINS Fuel Data Scenario Development GAINS Results CAMx CAMx Results Discussion Conclusion
GAINS Results - NOx NOx Emissions by GAINS Region Methodology Southern Peninsula PDP GAINS Northern Highlands Fuel Data GAINS Region Scenario Northeastern Plateau Development GAINS Results Central Valley CAMx CAMx Results Bangkok Metropolitan Discussion 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 Conclusion kt NOx-eq 2036 MFR 2036 CLE 2016 CLE
GAINS Results – SO 2 SO2 Emissions by GAINS Region Methodology PDP Southern Peninsula GAINS Northern Highlands Fuel Data GAINS Region Scenario Northeastern Plateau Development GAINS Results Central Valley CAMx CAMx Bangkok Metropolitan Results Discussion 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 kt SO2 Conclusion 2036 MFR 2036 CLE 2016 CLE
GAINS Results – PM10 PM10 Emissions by GAINS Region Methodology Southern Peninsula PDP GAINS Northern Highlands GAINS Region Fuel Data Northeastern Plateau Scenario Development GAINS Results Central Valley CAMx CAMx Bangkok Metropolitan Results Discussion 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 kt PM10 Conclusion 2036 MFR 2036 CLE 2016 CLE
CAMx model Methodology PDP GAINS Fuel Data Scenario Development GAINS Results CAMx CAMx Results Discussion Conclusion
CAMx Input Requirements • Emissions Inventory Methodology – GIS and spatial allocation PDP GAINS – Chemical speciation Fuel Data • Meteorological Model Scenario Development – WRF GAINS Results CAMx • Boundary and Initial Conditions CAMx Results – MEGAN-MACC and GFEDs database Discussion • Shipping emissions survey Conclusion
CAMx monitoring stations Methodology PDP GAINS Fuel Data Scenario Development GAINS Results CAMx CAMx Results Discussion Conclusion
CAMx Results - NOx NOx Concentrations March Average Methodology 24.0 PDP 21.0 GAINS 18.0 Concentration (ppb) Fuel Data 15.0 Scenario 2016CLE 12.0 Development 2036CLE GAINS 9.0 Results 2036MFR CAMx 6.0 CAMx 3.0 Results Discussion 0.0 Phra Nakhon Si Saraburi Rayong Chonburi Lampang Nakhon Sawan Surat Thani Conclusion Ayudhya Monitoring Stations
CAMx Results - NOx NOx Concentrations August Average Methodology 24.0 PDP 21.0 GAINS 18.0 Concentration (ppb) Fuel Data 15.0 Scenario 2016CLE 12.0 Development 2036CLE GAINS 9.0 Results 2036MFR CAMx 6.0 CAMx 3.0 Results Discussion 0.0 Phra Nakhon Si Saraburi Rayong Chonburi Lampang Nakhon Sawan Surat Thani Conclusion Ayudhya Monitoring Stations
CAMx Results – SO 2 SO2 Concentrations March Average 14.0 Methodology 12.0 PDP 10.0 GAINS Concentrations (ppb) Fuel Data 8.0 Scenario 2016CLE Development 6.0 2036CLE GAINS Results 2036MFR 4.0 CAMx CAMx 2.0 Results Discussion 0.0 Phra Nakhon Si Saraburi Rayong Chonburi Lampang Nakhon Sawan Surat Thani Conclusion Ayudhya Monitoring Stations
CAMx Results – SO 2 SO2 Concentrations August Average 14.0 Methodology 12.0 PDP 10.0 GAINS Concentration (ppb) Fuel Data 8.0 Scenario 2016CLE Development 6.0 2036CLE GAINS Results 2036MFR 4.0 CAMx CAMx 2.0 Results Discussion 0.0 Phra Nakhon Si Saraburi Rayong Chonburi Lampang Nakhon Sawan Surat Thani Conclusion Ayudhya Monitoring Station
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