Postponement of the Old Age Threshold: When is the Entry into Old - PDF document

Postponement of the Old Age Threshold: When is the Entry into Old Age? A cross-sectional study over 18 years with the data from the German Aging Survey from 1996 to 2014. Maria Bilo 1 , Viviana Egidi 1 1 Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche, Sapienza Università di Roma, Italy Abstract Background The increase in life expectancy over the last 160 years in developed countries, combined with a decreasing fertility, has resulted in an aging population. More and more people reach the old age. For an industrialized country, such as Germany, its economy must seek to increase the longevity of its population in order to retain their welfare state, for example by raising the retirement age. In this respect, it is important to know how long older people are able to participate in the labor market. Methods We conduct a cross-sectional analysis with data from the German Ageing Survey (DEAS) from 1996 and 2014. With prevalence rates from the Survey population and data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD), we calculate first life tables and subsequently the temporary unaffected life years in the physical health and social activity dimension for age groups from 65 to 84. Results The results show that there is a postponement of the old age threshold from 1996 to 2014. Further analyses indicate that there is an absolute compression of morbidity of the survey population between those times. 1

Conclusions There could be unused resources in the older ages, which Germany may focus on to integrate them more efficient in the labor market to face the ageing population and its consequences. Contribution We introduce an alternative approach to involve data sets without ADL sections in morbidity analyses. Additionally, we show a trend of healthy life years in Germany over nearly two decades and set an important basis for further cross-country analyses. 2

Introduction A much-noticed topic in the media for several years already is the impact of the demographic transition, especially regarding the development of the mortality reduction, which results in a continuous increasing life expectancy. Because different variables influence the mortality and therefore the life expectancy [Barlow 1999], there is still a big demand on this research. This is, among others, because of the public interest in this research. Hence, closely related to the discussion about life expectancy is the question how the additional life years are spent. Industrialized countries face now the consequences of the ageing process of their populations [Oeppen & Vaupel 2002]. Also, the German population could be soon a victim of the possible troubles for the social welfare system that may be caused by the Demographic Transition. The baby boomers will retire and therefore, the German intergeneration contract can be challenged in 2030 if there is not enough human capital in the working population to pay for the care of the retired population. This paper will address the following questions: 1) How has the prevalence of being social inactive and being in a physical poor health condition changed in the older population of Germany between 1996 and 2014? 2) How did the life expectancies overall and in the dimensions of social activity and physical health develop over this period? 3) Was there a postponement of the old age threshold in this time? 4) How have the health ratios relating to social activity and physical health changed from 1996 to 2014? 5) How can the change in morbidity in the older German population be described as over this period? Background To answer these questions, we use the concept of healthy life expectancy. The European Commission introduced in 2004 a new indicator, the healthy life years (HLY). These should reveal life quality regarding life expectancy and invest whether the additional years are spent in health or disability respectively disease [Jagger et al. 2008]. So healthy life expectancy 3

takes into account the current mortality but also the morbidity levels of a population. As an outcome, it offers years of life lived at a certain age in good or poor health. This addition shifts the focus from quantity to quality of life. Since the 1980s, there are three theories that established in this discussion about healthy life expectancy. The first one is the expansion of morbidity [Gruenberg 1977]. It says that the gained life years are spent in disease. Recent investigation lead to a further differentiation of this theory. The result is the theory of a relative expansion, which says that the total numbers of healthy years increase but their proportion on the total life span decreases [Doblhammer & Kytir 2001]. The counterpart to this theory was developed in the 1980’s and is called compression of morbidity [Fries 1983]. This theory states that the additional life years are spent in health. This theory as well experienced an addition. The relative compression holds on that while the total disabled years are increasing, the proportion of them on the total life span is decreasing [Doblhammer & Kytir 2001]. The last of the three theories, the dynamic equilibrium, combines elements of both mentioned theories [Manton 1982]. It says that the proportion of the life expectancy lived in severe disability stabilizes or decreases, whereas the proportion lived in less severe disability increases. Healthy life expectancy can be measured by an array of different health dimensions. This leads to more specific terms used for health expectancies. Usually self-reported health is measured with the activities of daily living (ADL), which measure the functional status of health. They can be divided into the basic (BADL) and instrumental (IADL) activities of daily living [Kim 2014]. Next to physical health it is also important to take into account a variety of factors that impact health and well-being, e.g. social activities, which lower the risk of mortality as much as fitness activities do [Glass 1999]. The objective of this paper is to examine trends in healthy life expectancy in Germany over an 18-years period from 1996 to 2014 by age groups and sex for adults 65 years old and over. A research of survey participants as from age 65 is desirable because a decrease in 4

mortality and an improvement of the life expectancy in the last years depends on the reduction of mortality in the older ages [Meslé et al 2002]. There was a remarkable mortality decline in the older ages [Christensen et al. 2009], which makes an investigation as from an older age interesting. Hoffmann and Nachtmann investigated in research about healthy life expectancy in 2010, too. They concluded that the HLY in Germany increased from 1999 to 2005. But according to their research this happened slower than the increase of the life expectancy. As a consequence, there was a proportional rise of life expectancy that was characterized by disability. Therefore, the HLY decreased in relation to the remaining life expectancy. This means a confirmation of a relative expansion of morbidity. This makes a further investigation with more recent data over a big time span interesting and an objective of this paper. Data To investigate in the objectives of this study, several pieces of information are essential: prevalence rates of being social inactive and being in a physical poor health condition, the life expectancy overall and the healthy life expectancies related to the named aspects of health, an old age threshold, and health ratios relating to social activity as well as to physical health. The prevalence rates are obtained from the German Aging Survey (DEAS). The DEAS is a nationwide representative cross-sectional and longitudinal survey of the German population aged 40 and older and is funded by the Federal Ministry for Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth. It provides micro data for use both in social and behavioral scientific research and in reporting on social developments. The survey covers a broad spectrum of topics, e.g. employment and retirement, social networks, quality of life, volunteer work. The first wave took place in 1996, further waves followed in intervals of 6 years until 2014. Starting from 2008, the panel survey is conducted every three years with the participants who had entered the DEAS before. The basic (cross-sectional) survey is still 5