Pooja Gardemal, CPA/ABV Panum Aviation Consulting } GDP } Air - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Pooja Gardemal, CPA/ABV Panum Aviation Consulting

} GDP } Air Transport Passengers } Fuel Price } Foreign Currency Risk } RPK Growth } Operation Comparison } Fleet } Middle Eastern Carriers } African Carriers } Growth Prospects Panum Aviation Consulting

GDP GD 4,000,000,000,000 90,000,000,000,000 80,000,000,000,000 3,500,000,000,000 70,000,000,000,000 3,000,000,000,000 60,000,000,000,000 2,500,000,000,000 50,000,000,000,000 2,000,000,000,000 40,000,000,000,000 1,500,000,000,000 30,000,000,000,000 1,000,000,000,000 20,000,000,000,000 500,000,000,000 10,000,000,000,000 - - Middle East & North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa World Panum Aviation Consulting

250,000,000 4,000,000,000 3,500,000,000 200,000,000 3,000,000,000 2,500,000,000 150,000,000 2,000,000,000 100,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,000,000,000 50,000,000 500,000,000 - - 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Middle East & North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa World Panum Aviation Consulting

Br Brent Crude & Jet Fuel 140 3.5 120 3 100 2.5 80 2 60 1.5 40 1 20 0.5 0 0 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Brent Crude USD/bbl Jet Fuel Spot Price USD/ gallon Panum Aviation Consulting

Mi Middle East 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 Decline AED 0.2723 0.2723 0.2723 0.2723 0.2723 0.2723 0.0% QR 0.2746 0.2747 0.2748 0.2748 0.2749 0.2747 0.0% OMR 0.3839 0.3848 0.3838 0.3838 0.3837 0.3837 0.0% JOD 0.7065 0.7080 0.7054 0.7060 0.7067 0.7056 -0.1% KWD 0.2781 0.2815 0.2817 0.2924 0.3030 0.3008 8.2% Af Africa EGP 0.1663 0.1652 0.1447 0.1403 0.1281 0.1129 -32.1% BIRR 0.0586 0.0555 0.0526 0.0499 0.0476 0.0463 -21.1% ZAR 0.1232 0.1180 0.0954 0.0862 0.0649 0.0658 -46.6% KES 0.0120 0.0117 0.0118 0.0112 0.0099 0.0101 -15.9% Panum Aviation Consulting

2015 Operations 2015 900,000,000 80.0% 800,000,000 75.0% 700,000,000 600,000,000 70.0% 500,000,000 65.0% 400,000,000 300,000,000 60.0% RPK 200,000,000 55.0% 100,000,000 ASK - 50.0% LF Panum Aviation Consulting

800,000,000 600,000,000 400,000,000 200,000,000 - 2011 2012 2013 Africa : Central/Western Africa Africa : Eastern Africa 2014 2015 Africa : North Africa Africa : Southern Africa Middle East Panum Aviation Consulting

Large widebody 4% Medium widebody 9% Small widebody 8% Total fleet 50% Single aisle 25% Regional jets 4% Panum Aviation Consulting

1,230 1,400 1,200 1,000 680 800 520 600 370 400 80 200 0 Large Medium Small Single aisle Regional jets widebody widebody widebody Panum Aviation Consulting

780 800 700 600 500 400 300 190 200 70 40 100 10 0 Large Medium Small Single aisle Regional jets widebody widebody widebody Panum Aviation Consulting

$25,000.00 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% $20,000.00 15.0% 10.0% $15,000.00 5.0% 0.0% $10,000.00 -5.0% -10.0% $5,000.00 -15.0% -20.0% $- -25.0% Revenues (USD) Profit Margin Panum Aviation Consulting

350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Emirates Etihad Qatar Air Arabia Royal Oman Air Jazeera -50% Jordanian Airways -100% -150% Revenues Net Income Panum Aviation Consulting

Capacity Inc Ca Increase se 800,000,000 600,000,000 400,000,000 200,000,000 - 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 AIR ARABIA EMIRATES ETIHAD AIRWAYS FLYNAS OMAN AIR QATAR AIRWAYS SAUDIA Panum Aviation Consulting

JAZEERA AIRWAYS OMAN AIR ROYAL JORDANIAN FLYDUBAI 2015 AIR ARABIA 2014 QATAR AIRWAYS ETIHAD AIRWAYS EMIRATES - 100,000,000 200,000,000 300,000,000 Panum Aviation Consulting

300 252 244 250 188 187 165 200 125 150 82 54 100 45 45 26 22 7 6 7 50 0 0 Current Fleet On Order Panum Aviation Consulting

350,000,000 85% 300,000,000 80% 250,000,000 75% 200,000,000 70% 150,000,000 65% RPKs 100,000,000 60% ASKs 50,000,000 55% LF - 50% Panum Aviation Consulting

$2,500 20% 10% $2,000 0% -10% $1,500 -20% -30% $1,000 -40% -50% $500 -60% $- -70% ETHIOPIAN AIR KENYA COMAIR LTD EGYPT AIR FASTJET MAURITIUS AIRWAYS Revenues (USD) Profit Margin Panum Aviation Consulting

180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% ETHIOPIAN AIR KENYA COMAIR EGYPT AIR FASTJET -20% MAURITIUS AIRWAYS LTD Revenues Profit Panum Aviation Consulting

Capacity Inc Ca Increase se 150,000,000 100,000,000 50,000,000 - 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ETHIOPIAN SAA EGYPT AIR KENYA AIRWAYS AIR ALGERIE AIR MAURITIUS TUNIS AIR Panum Aviation Consulting

FASTJET EGYPT AIR 2015 KENYA AIRWAYS 2014 AIR MAURITIUS ETHIOPIAN - 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 Panum Aviation Consulting

82 90 80 70 57 60 50 36 34 40 30 16 13 20 9 5 4 1 10 0 0 0 ETHIOPIAN AIR KENYA COMAIR EGYPT AIR FASTJET MAURITIUS AIRWAYS LTD Current Fleet On Order Panum Aviation Consulting

40,000,000 80% 35,000,000 75% 30,000,000 70% 25,000,000 20,000,000 65% RPKs 15,000,000 60% ASKs 10,000,000 LF 55% 5,000,000 - 50% Panum Aviation Consulting

800.0 700.0 600.0 Southeast Asia 500.0 South Asia 400.0 North America 300.0 Middle East 200.0 Europe 100.0 0.0 Africa 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Panum Aviation Consulting

2015 2015-2035 2035 Middle East - Oceania Africa - Middle East South Asia - Middle East Middle East - Middle East 2015-2035 Europe - Middle East North America - Middle East Southeast Asia - Middle East 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% Panum Aviation Consulting

300.0 250.0 200.0 Southeast Asia North America 150.0 Middle East 100.0 Europe 50.0 Africa 0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2015-2035 2015 2035 Africa - Southeast Asia Africa - North America Africa - Middle East 2015-2035 Africa - Europe Africa -Africa 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%