Planned Population Redistribution and its Impact on Family Formation - PDF document

Planned Population Redistribution and its Impact on Family Formation in Rwanda Jessica Marter-Kenyon, MSc and Stuart Sweeney, PhD Department of Geography, University of California at Santa Barbara Submitted to the IPC 2017 on September 30, 2017 DRAFT Abstract: For over fifteen years, Rwanda has pursued an aggressive program of villagization (or population redistribution) with the stated intent of moving 90% of its rural population to small, clustered villages (or imidigudu ). One of the aims of villagization is to help resolve population pressures, including high rates of rural population growth. In this paper, we empirically investigate the impacts of villagization on family formation (marriage and childbearing). Data for this study come from a household survey (N=2,049) designed and implemented by the authors in 2016-17 in four districts of Rwanda. We use Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate differences in the duration to first union and first birth according to settlement type. We find that men and women living in planned villages form unions more quickly than their counterparts living in isolated settlements (40% and 35% faster, respectively). The effect size of villagization on union formation is moderated by women’s education. We find that women living in planned villages have a duration to first birth 44% shorter than those who have not been villagized. The significant challenges of population growth, environmental change and food insecurity across rural Africa can be confronted through a variety of direct and indirect state interventions. Our study adds rare evidence to an understanding of the effectiveness of resettlement as a demographic strategy in the 21 st century. This study also adds to the theoretical debate on the impact of social and economic upheaval on family formation, particularly as far as how planned displacement and resettlement affects this behavior. Keywords: family formation, first union, first birth, population policy, resettlement, villagization, Rwanda 1. Introduction: Fertility transitions are happening in most countries across sub-Saharan Africa. Regardless of concern that the region is lagging, and some national transitions are stalling, fertility rates overall have fallen from 6.8 to 5.1 since 1980 (Bongaarts & Casterline, 2013). Some countries, like Rwanda, have halved their TFRs in the same period and are now nearing the middle phases of the demographic transition. Much of this change has been achieved through concerted efforts by national governments aimed at increasing the age at first union and first birth (aka the onset of family formation). Reduced exposure to pregnancy and marriage have been linked to population policies that target increased educational and economic opportunities for girls, increased access to family planning services, and sensitization around ideal family size. Studies have also shown that urbanization, industrialization, and socioeconomic development can catalyze fertility transitions (Bongaarts & Casterline, 2013). Less studied is the effect of population redistribution policy on demographic outcomes including fertility and family formation. This is despite the fact that firstly, sedentarization, villagization, mobility restrictions, and land redistribution policies have been common features of population, environment, and development strategy in many African countries since at least the colonial era; and, secondly, involuntary resettlement programs are well-known to have profound effects (both direct and indirect) for a wide

variety of demographic outcomes including fertility, but also mortality, morbidity, and migration. Population redistribution policies were especially common in Africa from the 1950s-1980s and have reemerged in the last two decades. Rwanda and Ethiopia currently have projects each involving more than ten million farmers. This paper assesses the relationship between villagization and family formation using the case of Rwanda and data from a survey we conducted in 2016-17 with 2,049 rural households living in either traditional or planned communities. Population redistribution is a central element of national development strategy in Rwanda; one of the many desired outcomes of the policy is fertility reduction. Despite successful reductions in fertility over the past decade, population growth and its consequences in the context of climate change and land scarcity are still of great concern, and cited as producing extraordinary circumstances demanding aggressive action in the rural sector (Government of Rwanda, 2009). The government hopes that the villagization program will accelerate the countryside’s demographic transition by ‘modernizing’ its people and land. Although the villagization (or imidugudu ) policy has been going on for over fifteen years (tracking the decline of fertility in the country), studies of its effects are few and far between and have dwindled in number since the end of the humanitarian crisis in the early 2000s. None have investigated its demographic outcomes. Our research draws on, and further contributes to, demographic and geographic theory and methods and has important implications for population policies in sub-Saharan Africa and in other developing countries globally. The significant challenges of population growth, environmental change and food insecurity across rural Africa can be confronted through a variety of direct and indirect state interventions. There is a long-standing, and ongoing, policy debate about what degree of intervention is best (May, 2012); our study adds rare evidence to an understanding of the effectiveness of resettlement as a demographic strategy in the 21 st century. This study also adds to the theoretical debate on the impact of social and economic upheaval on family formation, particularly as far as how planned displacement and resettlement affects this behavior. 2. Background: Population Growth, Policy and Villagization in Rwanda Fertility reduction is a major pillar of sustainable development policy in Rwanda. At 441 inhabitants/km2, the country has the highest population density in Africa (IFAD, 2017). The government has invested heavily in measures aimed at reducing demographic growth, and continues to do so. Still, the country’s population growth rate of 2.3% is worryingly high: between 2015 and 2025, the total population size is projected to increase from 11.6 million to 14.6 million people (IFAD, 2017). The majority of the population is rural and dependent on smallholder agriculture, as is the case across most of the continent. Population pressure and land scarcity were linked to the 1994 genocide. Since then, farm sizes have continued to dwindle: the average landholding is 0.3 hectares (IFAD, 2017). Along with climate change, the threat of future violence adds an additional gravity to the population issue in Rwanda. In a very short space of time, Rwanda has made massive strides towards curbing demographic growth. The total fertility rate (TFR) declined slightly- from 6.2 to 5.8- between 1992 and 2000, in part due to effects of the genocide. Contraceptive use was very low, and the new government initially held back from initiating any policies to stem population growth: firstly, they did not want to be seen as replicating the previous (genocidal) government’s policies; secondly, family planning, population control, and discussion about demographic growth were all relatively taboo topics for several years following the