PLANETARY EMERGENCY: TREADING on thin ice - playing with fire! Sandrine Dixson-Declève, President, The Club of Rome & EIT CLIMATE KIC ADVISORY BOARD - MEMBER OF EU sustainable finance technical expert group (TEG)
CLUB OF ROME - FLAGSHIP REPORTS
THE LIMITS TO GROWTH – 1972 2011 1972 D H. Meadows, et. al., The Limits to Growth , Universe Books, New York, NY, 1972 p. 124
SYSTEMS FRAGILITY - PLANET infected by homo-sapiens The Guardian, 10 Feb. 2019
SYSTEMS FRAGILITY – economic & financial COSTS South and nd sou south theast Asi sia su suffered catastrophic ic floo loods in n 20 2017 17 lead adin ing to to mor more than an 1, 1,20 200 de deaths and d di disp spla lacement t of te tens of f thou housands. IPP PPR R report Fe Feb. 20 2019 19 - Sinc nce 19 1950 50 glob global l inc ncrease FL FLOODS: S: by by 15 15x. EX EXTREME TEM EMP. EV EVENTS S by by 20 20x. x. WI WILDFIRES S by by 7x 7x. "We de defin fine this his as the he 'age of f envir vironmental l br breakdown' to to be better hi high ghlig light the he sev severit ity y of f the he sc scale ale, pac pace and nd imp mplic licati tions of f envir vironmental l de destabili ilisatio ion resulti lting from om agg ggregate hum human acti tivit ity."
Systems fragility – costs of inaction • Cos Costs ts of of ina naction far ar ou outw tweigh the cos osts of of act action! • Just four global warming impacts alone – hurricane damage, real estate losses, energy costs, and water costs – will cost 1.8 percent of U.S. GDP, almost $1.9 trillion annually by 2100 • 1.8% of global assets (approx. $2.5trillion) are at risk under current mitigation trajectories, but if warming is capped below 2°C these costs reduce to 0.2%. • US government analysis: US face up to $180 billion in economic losses due to drought and water shortages • Global action to limit warming to 2°C would: • Make $200 billion in savings to the American economy by 2100 • Prevent $50 million to $6.4 billion in adaptation costs to urban drainage systems in the US • Reduce costs to farmers of $2.6 billion to $3.1 billion • Reduced use of coal and other polluting fuels, meeting the US’ Paris target was expected to "prevent in the order of 7,000 premature deaths • Cost of not acting on climate will be $44trn by 2060
Systems fragility – Law and order ! (?)
SYSTEMS FRAGILITY – SOCIO-POLITICAL DYNAMICS
CLIMATE Emergency: ACTION & TRANSFORMATION
CLIMATE ACTION - TRANSFORMATION IS FEASIBLE Transformation is Feasible: • Humanity can achieve the SDGs whilst remaining within planetary boundaries. • Change conventional policy tools – and growth models – High human footprint, risking irreversible decline in Earth life-supporting systems. transformational approach will ensure dual aim met through a concrete, smarter pathway based on five transformative & synergistic actions: 1. Accelerated renewable energy growth 2. Accelerated productivity in sustainable food chains 3. New development models in poorer countries 4. Unprecedented inequality reduction 5. Investment in education for all, gender equality and family planning
CLIMATE ACTION – EMERGENCE FROM EMERGENCY
CLIMATE ACTION – EMERGENCE FROM EMERGENCY Exponential Climate Action Roadmap, 2018
PLANETARY Emergency: IMPACT , PEOPLE & EMERGENCE
|THE CLUB OF ROME | Planetary Emergency Plan Securing a New Deal for People, Nature and Climate
Th The scie ience is is cle clear: : the he clim climate an and bi biodiversity ty ar are ful ully integrated an and interdependent. When cli climate cha change al alters a a ch chin ink in n the he pl planetary system, , it it can set off f a a cha chain of of ne negativ ive feedback loops. . Increasing droughts, , for instance, , are red educing the abil ility of of tropical forests to to store carbon, , makin ing the hem more pr prone to to fires, , releasing yet more GH GHG em emissions.
5. In 2020, halt the decline of critical and By 2025 , require all large publicly-listed and 8. vulnerable ocean ecosystems and habitats family-owned companies to commit to 1. By 2030, declare critical ecosystems as Global and secure a robust New Ocean Treaty science-based targets, shift to green Commons (under UNCLOS) for the protection and investments (climate mitigation and adaptation and protected areas, through a regime of stewardship and sustainable use as well as ecosystems protections and co-responsibility by the entire global human community. of biodiversity in areas beyond national regeneration), disclose using available jurisdiction, which constitute half of our planet. taxonomies and report according to material 2. By 2020, set a universal global moratorium on risks from the Planetary Emergency. deforestation , using a net-zero deforestation and 6. In 2020, launch a permanent public-private degradation metric and, by 2025, triple annual Planetary Emergency fund for the Global 9. By 2025, halt all conversion of wetlands, investments in forest conservation and forest landscape Commons building upon the G7 Amazon grasslands and savannahs for the production of restoration. Emergency Fund and committing the necessary agricultural commodities and triple annual capital to insure humanity against present and investments in their effective protection, 3. By 2020, sign an immediate moratorium on inevitable future crises. restoration and resilience . developing Arctic oil and gas reserves, support withdrawal from fossil energy exploration and use and 7. By 2020, ensure all sovereign wealth funds 10. By 2020, introduce financial mechanisms and establish a Cryosphere Preservation Plan to protect this commit to defunding deforestation and, by policy instruments to support local farmers, critical ecosystem more broadly. 2025, halt all investments driving continued foresters and indigenous people to secure their deforestation and unsustainable land-use change livelihoods and to shift to regenerative 4. In 2020, significantly enhance public and private of intact and irreplaceable ecosystems. agriculture, sustainable forestry and other finance flows for restoration of critical ecosystems , sustainable land-use practices. including by mobilising $200billion for the GCF and GEF over the next decade.
TRANSFORMING ENERGY SHIFTING TO A CIRCULAR CREATING A JUST AND EQUITABLE SYSTEMS ECONOMY SOCIETY FOUNDED IN HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL WELL-BEING 1. Halt all fossil fuel expansion, 5. Agree in 2020 to halve 7. Introduce economic progress indicators that investments consumption and production include socio-ecological and human health and subsidies by 2020 and shift footprints in developed and emerging and well-being by 2030 , recognising that the investments and revenues to low- economies and close loops in latter depends on the flourishing and stewardship carbon energy deployment, research, inefficient value chains, by 2030 . of natural ecosystems. development and innovation. 6. Internalise externalities in 8. Provide legal tools by 2025 that allow 2. Continue the doubling of wind and unsustainable indigenous, forest and tribal communities to solar capacity every four years , and high-carbon production and secure their rights to traditional land, recognising and triple annual investments in consumption through targeted their vital role as stewards of these lands in renewable energy, energy consumption taxes and regulation, as mitigating climate change and ecosystem efficiency and low-carbon well as consumption-based accounting, degradation. Such mechanisms must include technologies for high-emitting sectors by 2025 . funding and legal aid to guarantee that these before 2025 . 7. Develop national and cross- communities have access to justice. 3. Set a global floor price on carbon national roadmaps for all countries 9. Shift taxation from labour to the use of all (>30 USD/ton CO2 and rising) towards regenerative land-use and natural resources, final disposal, emissions to land, immediately for developed countries circular economies , including a air and water by 2020 . and no later than 2025 for the reduction in global carbon emissions most advanced transition from basic materials to net-zero, by 10. Establish clear funding and retraining economies , that internalises high- 203 0. programmes for displaced workers, rural and carbon energy externalities in all industrial communities by 2025 .
EMERGING FROM EMERGENCY - Impact Hubs Climate Emergency Reclaiming & Implementation ar arch chitecture = the CoR oR Impac act Hub ub: Young Reframing Leadership Economics • allows allo s add added val alue inherent in the Platform to be leveraged across the Club’s fiv five pil pillars of of act activity. • Impact Hubs: will be the CoR’s mai ain de delivery mec echanism for or col ollective acti action, Emerging Rethinking New Finance Civilization • will serve as cr creative im impact spac space where Club of Rome members, associations and partners (governments, companies, universities, international institutions, NGOs, esteemed influencers etc …) will share transformational thought leadership and co-design solutions for impact.
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