9/19/2017 Mercer County Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Risk Assessment Public Meeting Mercer County Agenda Hazard Mitigation • What is Hazard Mitigation Planning • Review the update process Plan Update • Risk Assessment Section • Next Steps • Conclusion Risk Assessment Section Public Meeting July 20, 2017 Mercer County Mercer County Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Risk Assessment Public Meeting Risk Assessment Public Meeting Why is a Hazard Mitigation Plan necessary? Current Hazard Mitigation Plan • Adopted and Promulgated by Mercer County Commissioners Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 (DMA 2000) which amended the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act • Municipality Adoption of the Mercer County Plan (the Stafford Act), requires all local jurisdictions to have a • Used as support for disasters and emergencies since mitigation plan in order to receive certain types of disaster promulgation assistance and hazard mitigation funding. Mercer County Mercer County Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Risk Assessment Public Meeting Risk Assessment Public Meeting 2017 Hazard Mitigation Plan Update 2017 Hazard Mitigation Plan Update • Required to be updated every 5 years • Mercer County Hazard Mitigation Grant • Update process is continuous • Hired MCM Consulting Group, Inc. • All plans are reviewed annually: • Kick off meeting was March 13, 2017 • Local Planning Team Developed • County reviews all mitigation actions. • Municipalities provide progress reports on project opportunities. • Update process • Capture any major emergency or disaster information. • Capabilities Assessment • Annual progress reports are required by PEMA • Risk Assessment • Mitigation Strategy Develop • Draft Plan 1
9/19/2017 Mercer County Mercer County Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Risk Assessment Public Meeting Risk Assessment Public Meeting 2017 Hazard Mitigation Plan Update 2017 Hazard Mitigation Plan Update • Municipality involvement: • Public involvement: • Complete surveys and assessments: • Identify hazard areas in your municipality. • Capability Assessment Survey • Participate in surveys and assessments. • Hazard Identification Worksheet • Provide input into the draft plan. • Mitigation Opportunity Form • Participate in meetings. • Provide input into the draft plan. • Participate in meetings. • Adopt the County Plan as the Municipal Plan. Mercer County Mercer County Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Risk Assessment Public Meeting Risk Assessment Public Meeting Risk Assessment Risk Assessment Review Identifying Hazards Identifying Hazards • Note and Document Past Presidential Disaster Declarations • Tropical Depression Ivan - 2004 • Develop a List of Natural and Human-Caused Hazards • Review previous hazards in current plan • Flooding, Winter Storms, Drought, Wildfire, etc. • Identify new hazards • Invasive Species • Use a Hazard Identification and Risk Evaluation Worksheet: • Municipality Worksheet completed by Municipalities. • County Worksheet completed by the local planning team. Mercer County Mercer County Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Risk Assessment Public Meeting Risk Assessment Public Meeting Risk Assessment Risk Assessment Review Profiling Hazards Profiling Hazards • Identify the location and geographic extent • Mapping utilized • Local knowledge • Define the range and magnitude • Use of Scales or Measuring Tools • Defines Intensity and Impact • Past occurrences • Dates • Impact 2
9/19/2017 Mercer County Mercer County Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Risk Assessment Public Meeting Risk Assessment Public Meeting Risk Assessment Risk Assessment Profiling Hazards Assessing Vulnerability • Establish probability of future occurrences • Inventory and summarize vulnerable assets: • Based on past occurrence frequency • Existing buildings • Special Flood Hazard Area (Previously 100 year flood data) • Critical facilities • Determine environmental impacts • New development • Hazardous material facilities • Flooding causes polluted streams • Utility Systems • Tornado causes scattering of debris over large areas • Utilize GIS data • Droughts kill crops and trees Mercer County Mercer County Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Risk Assessment Public Meeting Risk Assessment Public Meeting Risk Assessment Risk Assessment Assessing Vulnerability Assessing Vulnerability • Review high risk groups • Estimate loss • Elderly • Determine potential dollar loss estimates for hazards: • Children • Flooding • Utilize assessed values from county records • Special needs • HAZUS Software from FEMA • Flooding hazards • Utilize Flood Insurance Rate Maps • Develop maps with critical facilities and impacted structures Summary of Risk Factor (RF) Approach Mercer County Risk Degree of Risk Weight Assessment Value Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Level Criteria Index Category UNLIKELY LESS THAN 1% ANNUAL PROBABILITY 1 PROBABILITY Risk Assessment Public Meeting What is the likelihood POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1% & 49.9% ANNUAL PROBABILITY 2 of a hazard event 30% occurring in a given LIKELY BETWEEN 50% & 90% ANNUAL PROBABILITY 3 year? HIGHLY LIKELY 4 GREATER THAN 90% ANNUAL PROBABILTY VERY FEW INJURIES, IF ANY. ONLY MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE & MINIMAL DISRUPTION ON QUALITY OF LIFE. TEMPORARY MINOR SHUTDOWN OF CRITICAL FACILITIES. 1 Risk Assessment MINOR INJURIES ONLY. MORE THAN 10% OF PROPERTY IN AFFECTED AREA DAMAGED OR IMPACT DESTROYED. COMPLETE SHUTDOWN OF Assessing Vulnerability In terms of injuries, LIMITED CRITICAL FACILITIES FOR MORE THAN ONE 2 damage, or death, DAY. would you anticipate impacts to be minor, 30% MULTIPLE DEATHS/INJURIES POSSIBLE. limited, critical, or MORE THAN 25% OF PROPERTY IN AFFECTED catastrophic when a CRITICAL AREA DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. COMPLETE 3 significant hazard • Develop risk factor for hazards SHUTDOWN OF CRITICAL FACILITIES FOR event occurs? MORE THAN ONE WEEK. HIGH NUMBER OF DEATHS/INJURIES • Utilize a risk factor tool (next slide) CATASTROPHIC POSSIBLE. MORE THAN 50% OF PROPERTY IN 4 AFFECTED AREA DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. COMPLETE SHUTDOWN OF CRITICAL • Relies on historical data FACILITIES FOR 30 DAYS OR MORE. NEGLIGIBLE LESS THAN 1% OF AREA AFFECTED 1 SPATIAL EXTENT How large of an area SMALL BETWEEN 1 & 10.9% OF AREA AFFECTED 2 • Relies on local planning team knowledge could be impacted by 20% a hazard event? Are MODERATE BETWEEN 11 & 25% OF AREA AFFECTED 3 impacts localized or regional? LARGE GREATER THAN 25% OF AREA AFFECTED 4 WARNING TIME MORE THAN 24 HRS SELF-DEFINED 1 Is there usually some (NOTE: Levels of lead time associated 12 TO 24 HRS SELF-DEFINED warning time and criteria 2 with the hazard event? that define them may be 10% Have warning 6 TO 12 HRS SELF-DEFINED adjusted based on 3 measures been hazard addressed.) implemented? LESS THAN 6 HRS SELF-DEFINED 4 LESS THAN 6 HRS SELF-DEFINED 1 (NOTE: Levels of DURATION LESS THAN 24 HRS SELF-DEFINED warning time and criteria 2 How long does the that define them may be 10% hazard event usually LESS THAN 1 WEEK SELF-DEFINED adjusted based on 3 last? hazard addressed.) MORE THAN 1 WEEK 4 SELF-DEFINED 3
9/19/2017 Spatial Warning Risk Mercer County Status Hazard Probability Impact Extent Time Duration Factor Hazard Mitigation Plan Update 4 2 4 1 3 3 Winter Storm No change Invasive Species (NEW) 4 2 3 4 1 2.9 Risk Assessment Public Meeting Pandemic, Epidemic and Infectious 4 1 4 1 4 2.8 No change Disease 4 2 2 4 1 2.7 Transportation Accidents Next Steps 4 2 2 4 1 2.7 Windstorm No change Terrorism 4 2 1 4 2 2.6 Energy Emergencies 1 3 4 4 1 2.5 • Mitigation Strategy Section: Hazardous Materials 3 2 2 4 2 2.5 • Meet with municipalities Increase Dam Failure 1 3 3 4 3 2.5 • Develop mitigation action plan Flood (100 Year Flood) 1 3 3 2 4 2.4 No change Fire Hazard 4 1 1 4 1 2.2 • Draft the mitigation plan Droughts and Water Supply • Available for public comment Deficiency 2 1 4 1 4 2.2 • Draft submit to PEMA Tornado 3 2 1 4 1 2.2 Flash Flood 4 1 1 4 1 2.2 • FEMA review and approval pending adoption Fixed Nuclear Facility 1 2 3 3 2 2 • County and municipality adoption No change Hurricane/Tropical Storm 1 1 3 1 2 1.5 No change Earthquakes 1 1 2 4 1 1.5 Subsidence & Landslides 2 1 1 1 1 1.3 Ice Jam Flood 1 1 1 2 1 1.1 Mercer County Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Risk Assessment Public Meeting Conclusion Questions?? Thank You Michael T. Rearick MCM Consulting Group, Inc. (814) 229-8063 mrearick@mcmconsultinggrp.com 4
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