peace, security and stability in Asia Shingo YAMAGAMI Overview In - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Japan’s greater contribution to peace, security and stability in Asia Shingo YAMAGAMI

Overview  In the 21 st century, we are facing: • Rapidly changing global power balance • Technological progress • Emerging threats (WMD proliferation, International terrorism, Cyber attacks etc.)  In East Asia, security environment has become increasingly severer. 1

Overview 2

Overview Change in China’s Announced Defense Budget 10% Line (Compared to the previous 10.1 9.8 year) % % The defense budget of China is 3.3 times larger Increased by; - 4100% in 27 years than the defense related expenditures of Japan - 360% in 10 years • Japan (FY2015): 4.82 trillion yen *Two digit increase since 1989, except 2010 • China (FY2015, announced): 16.132 trillion yen 3

Regional Affairs 1 : Korean Peninsula Chronology of ballistic missile(BM) launches and nuclear tests by North Korea 1993.5.29: launch of a BM 1998.8.31: “satellite launch” 2006.7.5: multiple launches of BMs 2006.10.9: nuclear test 2009.4.5: “satellite launch” 2009.5 25: nuclear test 2009.7.4: multiple launches of BMs 2012.4.13: “satellite launch” 2012.12.12: “satellite launch” 2013.2.12: nuclear test 2014.3.3: launches of two BMs 2014.3.26: launches of two BMs 2014.6.29: multiple launches of BMs 2014.7.9: multiple launches of BMs 2014.7.13: launches of two BMs 2014.7.26: launch of a BM 2015.3.2: launches of two BMs 2016.1.6 : nuclear test 2016.2.7: “satellite launch” BM launch: 15 times nuclear test: 4 times 1 4

Regional Affairs 2 : South China Sea ①  Directly relates to the peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region  Common issues of interests and concerns for the international community including Japan 5

Regional Affairs 2 : South China Sea ② 6 Source: http://amti.csis.org/before-and-after -the-south-china-sea-transformed/

Regional Affairs 2 : South China Sea ③ China’s Strategy to Gain Sea Control Step- 2: China’s Strategic Triangle ● Pratas Is. (T) Sanya ● 700km Woody Island Da Nang ● Scarborough Shoal ● ● ● 650km 900km 700km ● Cam Ranh Thitu Is. (P) ● ● Fiery Cross Reef ● Itu Aba Is. (T) ● Spratly Is. (V) ● Swallow Reef (M) 1,100km ● Riau Islands (Indonesia) Source: Vice Adm. (Ret.) Yoji Koda 7

Regional Affairs 2 : South China Sea ④ China’s position? Here is a gentle reminder to the Philippines: China will not bully small countries, meanwhile, small countries shall not make trouble willfully and endlessly. Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying (May 26, 2015) Ads on a Philippine newspaper 8 (from the ”Philippine Star”, 11 Aug 2015, placed by the Embassy of China in the Philippines)

Regional Affairs 2 : South China Sea ⑤ “Three principles on the rule of law at sea” (Proposed by Prime Minister Abe in his keynote address of 13th IISS Asian Security Summit "Shangri-La Dialogue", May 30, 2014) 1. States shall make and clarify their claims based on international law 2. States shall not use force or coercion in trying to drive their claims 3. States shall seek to settle disputes by peaceful means 9

Regional Affairs 3 : East China Sea ①  Increasing intrusions into territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands [Started in 2008, still continue]  Ramming of a Chinese fishing boat into Japan Coast Gard patrol vessels in territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands [September 2010]  China's announcement of the Establishment of “Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea” [November 2013]  Chinese military jet fighters flew excessively close to aircrafts of the JMSDF and the JASDF over the high seas [May and June 2014] 10

Regional Affairs 3 : East China Sea ②  Since the Japan-China summit meeting in November 2014, Chinese government vessels have been entering the contiguous zone every two days and the territorial sea three times a month (in average) 11

Regional Affairs 3 : East China Sea ③ The status of China’s unilateral development of natural resources in the East China Sea （ Examples of the installation of jackets and maritime platforms by China ） 8th structure : observed in August 2014 2nd structure: observed in July 2013 4th structure : observed in April 2014 (left) 7th structure: observed in June 2014 11th structure: observed in May 2015 12th structure: observed in June 2015 (right) 10th structure: observed in June 2014 12

Regional Affairs 3 : East China Sea ④  16 structures on the Chinese side of the median line between Japan and China.  The Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and the continental shelf in the East China Sea have not yet been delimited.  China’s unilateral development should be immediately ceased.  Negotiations on the implementation of the ''June 2008 Agreement*” should be resumed ASAP. *Japan and China agreed to cooperate on the development of natural resources in the East China Sea Area where China’s structures were observed Japan-China median line 13

Regional Affairs 4 : Vicinity of Japan Changes in the Number of Scrambles Example Flight Patterns of Russian/Chinese Aircraft against Russian Aircraft to Which Scrambles Responded :Route of Chinese Aircraft :Route of Russian Aircraft Number of Scrambles since the Period of the Cold War and Its Breakdown 14

Regional Affairs 4 “Japan maintains its position that the sovereignty and territorial integrity shall be respected and that any attempt to change the status quo by force or coercion cannot be tolerated . ” (Statement by the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Japan at an International Symposium, January 21, 2015) 15

Japan’s Security Policy  No nation can maintain its own peace and security alone.  Coordination with allies and partners Significance  UN collective security measures  PKO  Need to further strengthen the Japan-US alliance 16

Japan’s Security Policy “Proactive Contribution to Peace” based on the principle of international cooperation Prime Minister Abe speaking at the UN General Assembly (Sep 2013) Japan, as a “Proactive Contributor to Peace” , contributes even more actively in securing peace, stability and prosperity of the region and the international community. →Japan’s peaceful orientation will never sway. 17

Japan’s Legislation for Peace and Security  The legislation enables … (1) seamless responses to any situations to secure the lives/peaceful livelihood of the Japanese. (2) contribution to the peace/stability of the international community = “Proactive Contribution to Peace”  No changes in Japan’s basic posture and orientation for the past 70 years, including a peace-loving nation .  Enhance the deterrence provided by the Japan-U.S. Alliance. Deepen trust and cooperative relations with other partners. * Japan-U.S. defense cooperation will be pursued in accordance with the new bilateral defense Guidelines , revised on April 27, 2015. 18

Japan’s Legislation for Peace and Security For example, Use of Weapons Associated with International Peace Cooperation (1) Japan can participate in a wider Activities range of U.N. PKOs and other PKO units etc. of other internationally coordinated efforts countries ② Coming to the (wider activities possible, including ① Attack aid PKO the use of weapons for the defense of personnel of Armed Japan guerillas mandate.). etc. (2) The SDF can provide logistics support Logistics Support in a situation that has an important influence on Japan’s peace and Units of security or threatens international other countries peace and security. • Supply • Transportation (3) The exercise of the right of collective • Medical Services etc. self-defense is permitted, provided ※ except for logistics support in “the scene where combat the “Three New Conditions” are met. activities are actually being conducted. ” 19

Three New Conditions for “Use of Force” as Measures for Self -Defense (1)when an armed attack against Japan occurs [ the case of individual self-defense ] or when an armed attack against a foreign country that is in a close relationship with Japan occurs and as a result threatens Japan’s survival and poses a clear danger to fundamentally overturn people’s right to life, liberty and pursuit of happiness [ the case of collective self-defense ], (2)when there is no other appropriate means available to repel the attack and ensure Japan’s survival and protect its people, (3)use of force limited to the minimum extent necessary, should be interpreted to be permitted under the Constitution as measures for self-defense 20

Is Criticism against Japan’s security policy well -founded? 1 Criticism 1 “Japan will become a militarist nation and a threat to the region.” “ Incident, aggression, war -- we shall never again resort to any form of the threat or use of force as a means of settling international disputes .” (Statement by Prime Minister Abe, August 14, 2015) “ Japan will never become a country that would wage war again .” “ The course Japan has taken as a peace-loving nation will remain unchanged. ” (Press Conference by Prime Minister Abe , July 1, 2014) 21

“ If there were a war that involved your country, would you be willing to fight for your country? ” 71% 42% 29% 29% 27% 18% 11% Germany Japan ROK Australia France China Russia US UK Source: WIN/Gallup International （ September 2014 – December 2014 ） 22