Ou Our Sale lem: T Toda day TAC and nd SA SAC M Meeti ting: April 3, 2019
Meeting Agenda • Proje oject ct Updat ate • City y Profile • Greenhouse G Gas (GhG hG) I ) Inventory • Draft S t Scena narios rios a and nd Indica ndicators • Next t St Steps • Pu Publi blic C Comment (Last st 1 15 Mi Minutes) es) 2
What is a Comprehensive Plan? Com omprehens nsiv ive p plans ans… Are based on residents’ and stakeholders’ values and dreams Provide a shared vision for the city to guide future growth and development Provide policies and action items to implement the shared vision 3
Salem’s Comprehensive Plan Update Process Phase 3 Phase 1 Phase 2 Update Comp Existing Community Plan Conditions + Vision Scenarios Fall 2018 – Spring TBD TBD 2019 4
Process and Schedule We are here! 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 Review Choose Develop Report Report Back Existing Indicators Scenarios Card Plans 5
City Profile 6
7
60,000 more people by 2035 Est. Current 2035 Pop. Pop. 8
Salem’s Population is Aging 9
Hispanic/Latino Population is Increasing 10 10
Salem has a mix of housing types 11
Housing prices are rising following regional and national trends 12
Community Greenhouse Gas (GhG) Inventory 13
What is a Community Greenhouse Gas (GhG) Inventory? Greenhouse gases absorb and emit • the sun’s energy. GhG inventories are a full accounting • of these gases emitted into and removed (sequestrated) from the atmosphere. A community GhG inventory tracks • emissions and sequestration associated with activities that occur within a city, county, or region.
Why Create a Community GhG Inventory for Salem? City of Ashland GhG Inventory Track progress over time Develop policies around GhG reduction • targets. (2016) Identify activities, industries, and housing • types that provide GhG reductions benefits. Heartland 2050 Regional Vision Set a baseline for scenarios (Omaha, NE)
Progress To-Date Data Draft Protocol Final Draft Final Acquisition Inventory Selection Inventory Report Report (Sept – (Dec - (Sept) (April) (May) (June) Nov) March) We are here
Scope of Salem’s GHG Inventory Community-Scale GHG • Inventory Not consumption-based •
Six Emissions Categories / 3 Scopes SCOPE 1 SCOPE 2 SCOPE 3 ELECTRICITY TRANSPORTATION RES / COMMERCIAL WATER AND AGRICULTURE / WASTE GENERATION FUEL WASTEWATER URBAN FORESTRY GENERATION Carbon released by Combustible fuel Electricity generated Solid waste sent Passenger and Water supply and agricultural fertilizer use in residential by PGE and Salem to landfills and freight vehicle miles wastewater and carbon removed and commercial Electric to customers waste-to-energy traveled within generation within from urban tree buildings. within Salem UGB. facilities. Salem UGB. Salem UGB. cover.
Total Emissions by Source 2% Res / Commercial Fuel 12% SCOPE 1 Transportation 25% Water and Wastewater SCOPE 2 SCOPE 3 4% Electricity 57% Waste Generation 1.72 Million MT CO2e 8.2 MT CO2e per Capita DOES NOT INCLUDE 23,685 MT CO2e SEQUESTERED FROM TREE CANOPY DRAFT RESULTS SUBJECT TO REVISION
Transportation Emissions 960,000 MT CO2e 4,624,776 Average Daily VMT Includes trips going into the • Salem UGB or originating from the Salem UGB Does not include through- • trips Includes flights to/from • Salem municipal airport DRAFT RESULTS SUBJECT TO REVISION Source: Cascadia Partners and MWVCOG
Electricity Emissions Electricity Fuel Mix 33% 15% 100% 28% 15% 9% Portland General Electric Salem Electric Wind Hydro Natural Gas/Oil Coal Purchased Power Agreements DRAFT RESULTS SUBJECT TO REVISION
Electricity Emissions Electricity use data by sector and utility (kWh) 423,817 MT CO2e 1,200,000,000 1,000,000,000 800,000,000 600,000,000 400,000,000 2,803 MT CO2e 200,000,000 - Portland General Electric (PGE) Salem Electric (SE) Residential Commercial/Industrial Institutional DRAFT RESULTS SUBJECT TO REVISION
Comparing the Draft Inventory to Other Oregon Communities Community Most Recent Inventory Year Salem 2016 Eugene 2015 Beaverton 2013 Bend 2016 Portland / Multnomah County 2008 Ashland 2015 Milwaukie 2016 Caveats: Every community is different • Some data is older • Minor inconsistencies between inventories •
Per Capita Emissions (MT CO2e) 12.6 11.9 11.5 10.4 8.5 8.2 5.7 DRAFT RESULTS SUBJECT TO REVISION
Per-Capita Waste Emissions (MT CO2e) For Salem, includes emissions from Covanta Marion, Pacific Northwest Generation Cooperative, and Coffin Butte Landfill 0.57 0.50 0.43 0.41 0.33 0.06 0.02 * * *May be inconsistent due to GHG reporting standards used DRAFT RESULTS SUBJECT TO REVISION
Per-Capita Energy* Emissions (MT CO2e) 8.5 7.3 7.1 5.5 4.3 3.2 2.1 *Stationary consumption of electricity, DRAFT RESULTS natural gas, and other fuels SUBJECT TO REVISION
Per-Capita Transportation Emissions (MT CO2e) For Salem, does not include trips starting 5.9 and ending outside Salem UGB 4.6 4.6 3.8 3.7 3.0 2.8 DRAFT RESULTS SUBJECT TO REVISION
Transportation Emissions as Share of Overall Emissions 56% 53% 51% 45% 38% 29% 27% DRAFT RESULTS SUBJECT TO REVISION
Next Steps For Us: • We will finalize the GHG inventory • Prepare a summary report • Prepare a technical memorandum For You: • Continue to track future progress • Potentially look back to assess trends • Identify policies that could impact community GHG emissions
Indicators and Scenarios 31
Indicators Chosen The indicators are: 1. V ariables that can be measured on a map 2. Questions for which good data is available 3. Can be influenced by a Comprehensive Plan 32
December Community Workshop 33
Top 20 Indicators “Result Areas” Welcomin ing a and Safe, R Sa Reliable, Str trong an g and Good Go Natural Na l Sa Safe Livable ble Efficient Diver erse e Gov overnance Envir vironme ment Commu mmunity Commu mmunity Infra rastru ructure Econom nomy Stew eward rdship Affordabil abilit ity Wal alk an k and t tran ansit it Emplo loyme ment Revenue-to to-co cost Develo lopme pment nt i in n Tra raffic/ c/ fri riend ndli line ness mi mix rat atio io environme nment ntally lly pedestr strian sensi se siti tive a areas acci ccident nts Ho Housing Access t ss to o Aver erag age w e wag age Annua nnual le l level l of Tre ree ca cano nopy Acti tive affordabil af abilit ity frequent tr fr transi sit se service tr transp sporta tati tion (expenditures per capita) Comple plete Bicy cycle cle a and nd Jobs bs/housin ing Prop operty ty ta tax x Total To neighborhoods ds pedestr strian u use se bala lance nce re revenue nue greenhou house se g gas s emissi ssion ons Proxim imit ity t to Air p r pollut llutant nt par arks ks an and trail ails reduct re uction Inf nfill ll develo lopme pment nt/ re redevelo lopme ment 34
Salem Salem is is Gr Growing ing How We Grow Matters 35
What is Scenario Planning? Conventional Approach: One Possible Future The Future The Present 36
Scenario Planning Explores Multiple Possible Futures 37
Two Future Scenarios These are not alternative growth scenarios used for Visioning Both assume Both assume curre urrent C nt City ity p pol olic icie ies Scenar nario 1 1: Curre urrent nt T Tre rend nds (Mos ost Lik Likely) • Population: 54,000 more people (Forecast =60,000) • Density: Lower than allowed • Redevelopment: Some Scenar nario 2 2: Z Zoning oning Buil Buildout (Maxim (Maximum De Dens nsity ity) • Population: 93,000 more people • Density: Maximum allowed (housing) • Redevelopment: Much more 38
New Households Current Trends Zoning Buildout 39
New Jobs Current Trends Zoning Buildout 40
New Activity = Households + Jobs Current Trends Zoning Buildout 41
All Households = Today + Future Zoning Buildout Today Current Trends 42
What is a Comprehensive All Jobs = Today + Future Plan? Zoning Buildout Today Current Trends 43
Scenario Analysis using Envision Tomorrow BUILDI LDING-LEV EVEL EL SPATIA IAL S L SCENARIO IOS REAL AL-TIME ME MODELIN LING ANA NALYTI TICS 44
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