Government Operations/ Courts Relocation Opportunities Analysis Advisory Services Update For the County of Albemarle Board of Supervisors October 11, 2017
Agenda 1 Introductory Remarks by County 2 Schedule & Process Update 3 Quantitative Analysis 4 Qualitative Decision-Making Framework 5 P3 Framework 2
1 Introductory Remarks by County Captivating quote, stat, description, etc. that explains the new section.
Development Advisory Services Update Expectation of presentation / work session discussion for this topic: BOS will be updated on in-process work to date and upcoming • schedule Primary goal of meeting is BOS to review proposed decision • making criteria and provide input and priority feedback setting the stage for future decision framework Stantec will lead a P3 Framework discussion • 4
Nov 2, 2016 BOS Resolution & Follow-up Confirmed BOS requirement that any ✓ option ensure fair and equal administration of Justice Directed Staff to pursue “Option 5” to ✓ bring level of analysis to Option 1 Directed staff to investigate options of ✓ Court/COB/both as opportunity to invest capital into urban development and revitalization to expand County's Commercial and Industry tax base Dec – June: Procured Development ✓ Services Advisor – Stantec Consulting Services July+ commenced work ✓ 5
Upcoming Key Events / Milestones October BOS Schedule/Process update • Decision making criteria and priority setting • P3 Framework Discussion • November BOS Criteria Confirmation • Content review - Adjacency study, Program Analysis, Surplus Buildings analysis • Proposed 2 nd work session – focused discussion on P3 (to be scheduled) • December BOS Fiscal Impact Model meetings (2x1 meetings) - (to be scheduled) • December 13 th work session – initial report on 3 concepts • Costs, fiscal impacts, economic benefits, etc ― Application of BOS criteria and priorities ― Decision and/or further direction by BOS ― 6
2 Schedule & Process Update Captivating quote, stat, description, etc. that explains the new section.
Milestone Schedule - Option 1 Update - Kick-off - Option 5 Analysis - Fiscal Impact - Data-based Analysis Studies - Cost/Benefit - Surplus Buildings - Rio29 Small Analysis Analysis Area Plan - P3 Structuring - Adjacency - Present Onboarding Direction Study, - Financing Findings of Team to Proceed Options - Program Analysis Current Progress Point 8
Remaining Task Schedule OCT NOV DEC SEP Program Analysis for COB Concurrently with: - Adjacency Study - Rio 29 Small Area Plan Review Option 5 Analysis - Due Diligence - Development Concepts/Scenarios - Budgeting/Costing - Fiscal Impact Analysis - Surplus Buildings Analysis P3 Structuring & Financing Cost/Benefit Analysis Present Findings Current Progress Point 9
3 Quantitative Analysis Captivating quote, stat, description, etc. that explains the new section.
Methodology Update and prepare a project-level analysis of Option 1 • (Downtown Option) and Option 5 (Court and/or COB Relocation Option) Prepare future development scenarios that could occur as a • result of stimulus from Option 5 Incorporate the above inputs and assumptions into a County- • level Financial Analysis & Management System (FAMS) financial model Generate 10-year cash flow projections of surpluses and • deficits for the status quo versus Options 1 and 5, taking into account fiscal impact of potential future development 11
Project-level inputs for evaluation Project Costs Capitalized Costs Net Project Cost (CapEx) Sale or Lease Proceeds Deductions 12
Development scenarios for evaluation Development Scenarios Feasible Development Financing Costs Assumptions Development Scenarios Operating Proforma Return to Developer Investor IRR 13
County inputs for evaluation County FISCAL IMPACT Revenues ANALYSIS MODEL Operating Costs Capital Costs Debt Service Net Fiscal Impact 14
Illustration* of FAMS Graphical Outputs Rate Adjustment ► Cash Out Exceeds Grey Bars = Baseline Scenario (status quo) Cash In Blue Bars = Active “What - if” Scenario End of Year Fund Balance End of Year Fund Balance Cash In vs. Cash Out Cash In vs. Cash Out Cash In Cash In Cash Out - Total Cash Out - Total Cash Out - Before CIP Cash Out - Before CIP Current Plan Current Plan Last Plan Last Plan Reserve Target Reserve Target $15 $15 $45 $45 $10 $10 Millions Millions Millions Millions $35 $35 $5 $5 $0 $0 $25 $25 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 25 25 26 26 27 27 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Capital Improvement Funding Capital Improvement Funding Capital Improvements Capital Improvements Current Plan Current Plan Last Plan Last Plan Cash Cash Long Term Long Term Short Term Short Term $3 $3 $3 $3 $2 $2 $2 $2 Millions Millions Millions Millions $1 $1 $1 $1 $0 $0 $0 $0 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 25 25 26 26 27 27 Fund Balance Falls Below Reserve 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 25 25 26 26 27 27 Target (black line) due to Negative Cash Flow * Example shown for illustration purposes only 15
Illustration* of FAMS Model Control Panel Financial GENERAL FUND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS SUMMARY Indicators Reset Reset 5/10 5/10 l l What If What If Fire Fire Entity Name Calc Calc Sav e Sav e e e Reserv e Reserv e VRP / CIP VRP / CIP PST PST FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 Rate Adjustment ► Reat Estate Assessment Rate 4.7157 4.7157 4.7157 4.7157 4.7157 4.7157 4.7157 4.7157 4.7157 4.7157 4.7157 Real Estate Value Increase N/A 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% O&M 90% Cash Flow Surplus/(Deficit) $M $ 0.34 $ (0.67) $ (0.91) $ 0.05 $ (0.25) $ (0.75) $ (1.20) $ (1.27) $ (1.38) $ (1.54) $ (2.06) RS_DEV 50% End of Year Fund Balance $M $ 13.24 $ 12.57 $ 11.66 $ 11.71 $ 11.47 $ 10.72 $ 9.51 $ 8.25 $ 6.87 $ 5.33 $ 3.27 CO_DEV 50% Reserve Target Surplus/(Deficit) $M $ 9.02 $ 8.16 $ 7.09 $ 6.85 $ 6.46 $ 5.56 $ 4.20 $ 2.72 $ 1.15 $ (0.59) $ (2.86) RS Base 35 Debt Service Coverage 2.24 2.10 1.96 1.82 1.68 1.54 1.40 1.26 1.12 0.98 0.84 CO Base 350,000 Coverage Requirement 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Capital Expense $M $ 0.81 $ 0.87 $ 0.74 $ 0.53 $ 0.57 $ 0.91 $ 0.91 $ 0.94 $ 0.96 $ 0.99 $ 1.01 Health $M 0.55 Debt Scenario Service Inputs Coverage * Example shown for illustration purposes only 16
FAMS Scenario Fiscal Impact Summary* Development Fiscal Impact Annual Net Fiscal Impact $4,000,000 $3,500,000 $3,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $- FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 Development Cash Flows Total Revenue Impact Total Expense Impact $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000 Annual Revenues and Expenses from $2,000,000 Development $- FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 * Example shown for illustration purposes only 17
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