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PV Market & Industry Development From self-consumption to 100% RES, a paradigm shift for PV Ir Gatan Masson PV Markzttan Masson, Director Director, Becquerel Institute Becquerel Institute Content & Strategy, Solar United

  1. PV Market & Industry Development From self-consumption to 100% RES, a paradigm shift for PV Ir Gaëtan Masson PV Markzttan Masson, Director Director, Becquerel Institute Becquerel Institute Content & Strategy, Solar United Vice-Chairman, EU PV Technology & Innovation Platform Operating Agent, IEA-PVPS Task 1

  2. BECQUEREL INS INSTITUTE • Research oriented Institute and consulting company for Solar Technologies. • Global PV Market Analysis including competitiveness and economics. • Industry analysis together with quality & reliability. • Integration into electricity systems (grids and markets). • In-house experts / Global network of experts and stakeholders • PV Market Alliance partner 2 2 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  3. IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME What is IEA PVPS? • Implementing Agreement from International Energy Agency – Technology Collaboration Program • Established in 1993 • 29 members: 24 countries, European Commission, 4 associations • Strategy 2013- 2017: “ To enhance the international collaborative efforts which facilitate the role of photovoltaic solar energy as a cornerstone in the transition to sustainable energy systems ”

  4. - PV market development - PV prices and technology - Competitive PV tenders - PV competitiveness - 100% RES - Self-consumption 4 4 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  5. 1. Market Development 5 5 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  6. FROM 1.1 .1 TO 50 GW IN IN 11 YEARS 51 GW 228 GW Source: IEA-PVPS 2015 6 6 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  7. CONFIDENCE IN IN NUMBERS ? - From 50 to 59 GW installed in 2015 - Who’s right, who’s wrong ? - Counting apples, pears … and more ? - Some rules Counting AC numbers is simply wrong  switch to DC - or count both. - What does « installed » means? Commissioned? - Production > shipments > installations … - … 7 7 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  8. TOP 10 IN INSTALLATIONS AND TOTALS 8 8 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  9. ENERGY VS POWER PV Market Alliance 9 9 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  10. TOP 1 TO 10 MARKETS 10 10 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  11. PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT « The Policy Triangle » Source: PV Market Alliance – Becquerel Institute 2016 11 11 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  12. 5 5 YEARS FORECASTS ? - Many countries haven’t stepped in the PV market in a sustainable way (see China, Japan or the US) - Those that have (Europe) are experiencing difficulties. - Tenders that are popping up are by definition policy- driven: policy stops, the PV market stops - Self-consumption is difficult to implement (see China, Italy …) - Uncertainties reflect, not the intrinsic PV potential but the difficulties to realize that potential. 12 12 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  13. A TALE OF 2 MARKETS Distributed PV Producers Grid injection, PPA, competition with One Self-consumption, utilities generation energy effiency, grid technology business parity, competition with utilities distribution business Prosumers Centralized PV 13 13 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  14. SEGMENTATION OVER TIM IME 14 14 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  15. WHAT KIN IND OF MARKET AHEAD? Source: PV Market Alliance – Becquerel Institute 2015 15 15 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  16. SHARE PER REGION 16 16 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  17. MARKET IN INCENTIVES 17 17 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  18. 2. Prices and Technology 18 18 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  19. THE CSI LEARNING CURVE Source: ITRPV 7th Edition - 2016 19 19 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  20. CRYSTAL BALL ANALYSIS? - The Learning curve concept is an empirical way of looking at COSTS decrease (due to technology improvements). - Has been theorized for semi-conductors well before PV (BCG) - Prices vs Costs - Automation, industrialisation, different cost paradigm in China (cheaper equipment …)… - Range of costs and prices: LC is perfect for low prices but what for emerging technologies? - Modules or cells? 20 20 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  21. ANOTHER PERSPECTIVE What about the costs ? Source: Becquerel Institute 2016 21 21 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  22. PUBLIC IC DATA AND FORECASTS - Jinko announced (Q1-2016): - 0,37 USD/Wp production costs (others are close: 0,41-0,43) - 0,29 USD/Wp end 2017 - 0,25 USD/Wp in 2020 (First Solar as well) - With GPM at 20%: 0,44 USD/Wp (and 0,35 USD FY 2017) - Prices and cost decline on a 30%+ learning curve - Official low market prices (Q3-2016): 0,38 USD/Wp - Prices for large orders: Down to 0,3x USD/Wp ? - Super competitive tenders (Dubai, Jordan, Peru, India) are done with multi-Si, CdTe or aSi. - Large part of the PV market with higher prices ! 22 22 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  23. PV PRIC ICE LEARNING CURVE 97% production 20% LC 0,4 USD/Wp 0,45 USD/WP – 275 GW 37% LC 0,38 USD/WP – 300 GW Source: Becquerel Institute 2016 23 23 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  24. SIZ IZE MATTERS TO LOWER COSTS Quest for 10 GW is ongoing Source: Fraunhofer ISE & IPA, 1 GW Study 2014 24 24 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  25. WHAT ABOUT TECHNOLOGIES? 25 25 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  26. THIN IN FIL ILM LEARNING CURVES Source: Becquerel Institute 2016 26 26 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  27. THIN IN FIL ILM ROADMAP - CdTe LC – 16-20% (Trina Solar, Becquerel Institute) - Costs and prices (annouced) significantly different - CIGS LC – 8-10% (Trina Solar, Becquerel Institute) - But why? One single main producer on a protected market (JP)? Technology intrinsic characteristics? - Risk that TF might have difficulties to cope with cSi price decline … ? 27 27 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  28. HOW MUCH NEW CAPACITIES ARE NEEDED (A (AND WHEN)? )? Source: PV Market Alliance – Becquerel Institute 2016 28 28 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  29. 2015 CAPACITIES Source: RTS Corporation, do not use or reproduce without explicit agreement 29 29 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  30. HOW MUCH NEW CAPACITIES ARE NEEDED? Source: Becquerel Institute 2016 30 30 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  31. A NEW PRIC ICE WAR 31 31 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  32. 3. . COMPETITIVE TENDERS Source: Solar Power Europe – Global Market Outlook 2016 based on International Energy Agency data 32 32 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  33. COMPETITIVE TENDERS Is 0,03 USD/kWh realistic ? What is needed ? - Yield: 2000 kWh/kWp - CAPEX: 0,7 EUR – 0,8 USD/Wp - OPEX: 15 EUR/kW - WACC: 4% (nominal) - Degradation: 0,5% 33 33 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  34. SENSITIVITY OF LCOE Contribution to the LCOE per components in absolute value (LCOE = 0,107 EUR/kWh) 0.12 0.1 0.08 1 EUR/WP CAPEX 0.06 30 EUR/Wp OPEX 0.04 6% Nominal WACC 1100 kWh/kWp Yield 0.02 0 Source: Becquerel Institute 2016 34 34 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  35. FUTURE CAPEX 35 35 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  36. RESIDENTIAL PV LCOE IN IN UK 36 36 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  37. RESIDENTIAL PV LCOE IN IN IT ITALY 37 37 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  38. COMPETITIVENESS 38 38 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  39. 4. . 100% RES ? 39 39 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  40. 40 40 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  41. 41 41 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  42. 42 42 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  43. 43 43 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  44. 44 44 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  45. 45 45 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  46. 46 46 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  47. 47 47 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  48. SELF-CONSUMPTION 48 48 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  49. ROOFTOP PV DEVELOPMENT PV Market Alliance 49 49 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

  50. BUSINESS MODELS Savings on the Net-metering Producers electricity bill Self- + consumption Sale of excess PV + market electricity price + FiT/FiP Sale of electricity FiT / TGC Market price (+ premium? Prosumers FiP) 50 50 Solar United – UNSW October 2016 Becquerel Institute

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