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Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord Layard Chair, LSE
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Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Western Hemisphere United States 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Canada 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 Mexico 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 Brazil 2 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 Argentina 2 2 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Colombia 5 4 5 5 4 4 3 4 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 Asia Pacific Japan 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 Australia 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 2 1 2 1 Korea 2 4 4 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 3 2 China 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 Indonesia 2 4 5 5 5 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 India 3 4 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 2 2 Europe Germany 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 France 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 Italy 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 Spain 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 4 3 4 United Kingdom 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 Turkey 3 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 Russia 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 Poland 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 Hungary 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 4 4 3 3 Africa South Africa 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 Expansion and level at or above trend (mean) Expansion but level below trend (mean) Contraction at a moderating rate Data not available Moving sideways Contraction at a increasing rate
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DOMESTIC DOMESTIC FOREIGN FOREIGN SOVEREIGN BANKS
A.
- A. Mark
Mark-
- to
to-
- market fall in
market fall in value of govt bonds value of govt bonds held by local banks held by local banks
- C. Erosion in potential
- C. Erosion in potential
for official support for official support
- D. Mark
- D. Mark-
- to
to-
- market fall in
market fall in value of govt. bonds value of govt. bonds held by foreign banks held by foreign banks
- E. Similar
- E. Similar
sovereigns come sovereigns come under pressure under pressure
- F. Contagion channels
- F. Contagion channels
(A, B, & C as above) (A, B, & C as above)
- G. Rise in counter
- G. Rise in counter-
- party credit risk
party credit risk
- H. Withdrawal
- H. Withdrawal
- f funding for
- f funding for
risky banks risky banks
BANKS
- B. Increase in bank
- B. Increase in bank
funding costs funding costs
- I. Increase in
- I. Increase in
contingent contingent liabilities of liabilities of govt. govt.
- I. Increase in contingent
- I. Increase in contingent
liabilities of govt. liabilities of govt.
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