NYSERDA Conference, Albany, NY November, 2011 1 E&S - PDF document

T.J. Sullivan 1 B.J. Cosby 2 T.C. McDonnell 1 C.T. Driscoll 3 NYSERDA Conference, Albany, NY November, 2011 1 E&S Environmental Chemistry, Inc., P.O. Box 609, Corvallis, OR 97339 2 Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903 3 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY 13244

• NYSERDA • National Park Service • U.S. EPA • U.S. Forest Service 2

1. Critical Load – What is it? 2. CL vs. TL vs. Exceedance 3. Models 4. Major Research Focus  Weathering  Critical Limit  Extrapolation 5. Exceedance 3

• Critical Load • Target Load (Dynamic CL) • Exceedance 4

• Steady State Mass Balance  SSWC • Process Models  MAGIC  PnET-BGC 5

Aquatic Terrestrial Acidification X X N Enrichment Biodiversity 6

Base cation balance CL = weathering + deposition - uptake – ecological buffer 7

CL = weathering + deposition - uptake – ecological buffer 8

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50 LTM Data 40 MAGIC Modeling 30 20 ANC (µeq/L) 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 10

CL = weathering + deposition - uptake – ecological buffer Ecological buffer = runoff x critical ANC leaching limit • Protect surface water –  ANC = 50 µeq/L • Protect soil and vegetation –  Soil solution Ca:Al = 1, 10  Soil BS = ? 11

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80 Number of MAGIC Modeled 70 60 Watersheds 50 40 Ratio = 1 30 Ratio = 10 20 10 0 ≤ 25 25 - 50 50 - 75 75-100 > 100 Critical Load Class (meq/m 2 /yr) 13

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60 Growth Decline No Growth 50 Decline Number of Trees 40 30 20 10 0 Base Saturation - Upper B Horizon (%) 16

Sugar Maple Seedling Count % Base Saturation in Upper B Horizon 17

• Numeric • Spatial 18

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Landscape Water Characteristics Chemistry • Watershed • ANC • pH area • WA:SA • Sum of base • Elevation cations • Slope • Sum of base • % clay in soil cations – • Soil pH chloride • Soil depth to • Sulfate • Nitrate restricting layer 20

250 200 Critical Load (meq/m 2 /yr) Estimated by Regression 150 100 50 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 Critical Load (meq/m 2 /yr) MAGIC Calculated 21

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