Nutrient Monitoring Council 15th Meeting/Zoom Conference Call, June - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Illinois Nutrient Loss Reduction Strategy Nutrient Monitoring Council 15th Meeting/Zoom Conference Call, June 18, 2020 Illinois EPA Lake Monitoring….During COVID -19

Welcome/Housekeeping • Important Stuff – bathrooms, lunch, other • Member and Guest Introductions • Newsworthy Notes: • Originally Scheduled March 31, 2020 • Have you heard? COVID-19 

Nutrient Monitoring Council Members Illinois EPA MWRDGC Gregg Good, Rick Cobb Justin Vick Illinois State Water Survey Illinois Corn Growers Association Laura Keefer Laura Gentry Illinois Natural History Survey U.S. Army Corp of Engineers-Rock Island James Lamer Nicole Manasco Illinois Dept. of Natural Resources U.S. Geological Survey Brian Metzke Kelly Warner Univ. of IL – Dept. of Agriculture and National Center for Supercomputing Apps Biological Engineering Jong Lee Paul Davidson Univ. of IL – Dept. of Natural Resources and Sierra Club Environmental Sciences (Emeritus) Cindy Skrukrud Greg McIsaac NLRS Coordinator – Illinois EPA Trevor Sample

NMC Charges (Revised 10/26/15) 1. Coordinate the development and implementation of monitoring activities (e.g., collection, analysis, assessment) that provide the information necessary to: a. Generate estimations of 5-year running average loads of Nitrate-Nitrogen and Total Phosphorus leaving the state of Illinois compared to 1980-1996 baseline conditions; and b. Generate estimations of Nitrate-Nitrogen and Total Phosphorus loads leaving selected NLRS identified priority watersheds compared to 1997-2011 baseline conditions; and c. Identify Statewide and NLRS priority watershed trends in loading over time using NMC developed evaluation criteria. 2. Document local water quality outcomes in selected NLRS identified priority watersheds, or smaller watersheds nested within, where future nutrient reduction efforts are being implemented (e.g., increase in fish or aquatic invertebrate population counts or diversity, fewer documented water quality standards violations, fewer algal blooms or offensive conditions, decline in nutrient concentrations in groundwater). 3. Develop a prioritized list of nutrient monitoring activities and associated funding needed to accomplish the charges/goals in (1) and (2) above.

September 10 and October 22, 2019, NMC Meetings • Review of Meetings • Minutes (review and approve)

Statewide and Major River Total Phosphorus (TP) and Nitrate-N Loads Through the 2019 Water Year Gregory McIsaac, Associate Professor Emeritus University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign Adjunct Research Scientist Agricultural Watershed Institute

Riv iver Lo Load Calculation Methods Load (lb/yr) = water flow (volume/time) x concentration (mass/volume) Yield (lb/ac-yr) = Load/drainage area USGS provides daily water flow IEPA and USGS provide sample concentrations approximately monthly Daily Load = daily water flow x estimated daily concentration Daily concentrations estimation methods Nitrate: Linear Interpolation over time between measured samples Phosphorus: Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge and Seasonality (WRTDS)

Statewide Results: : R Riverine Flo low and Loads New update 1980- 2013-17 1996 (Biennial Report) 2014-18 2015-19 baseline Avg. % change Avg. % change Avg. % change Avg. value from 1980- value from value from value 1996 1980- 1980-1996 1996 Water Yield 13.0 14.7 +13% 14.1 +9% 16.3 +25% (in/yr) Nitrate-N Load 397 425 +7% 380 -4.4% 448 +13% (Million lb N/yr) Total P Load 33.7 42.2 +25% 40.8 +21% 46.2 +37% (Million lb P/yr) 2013-17 TP loads are slightly lower here than in the 2019 Biennial Report because WRTDS calculates loads based on relationships over a 7 year window. Adding new observations can shift these relationships.

Statewide annual water yield annual, 5 year moving average, and 1980-96 average water yield 1980-96 avg. 5 per. Mov. Avg. (water yield) 22 20 water yield (in/yr) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019

Statewide average precipitation and water yield 1980-2019 water yield precipitation 5 yr avg water yield 5 yr avg precip 24 45 22 43 20 precipitation (in/yr) water yield (in/yr) 41 18 39 16 37 14 water year basis (Oct 1 to Sept 30) 35 12 33 10 31 8 6 29 1979 1989 1999 2009 2019

Statewide estimates of annual nitrate loads (black), water yield (blue), 1980-96 baseline average (solid red line), and five year moving average values (dashed lines) 23 NO3-N load 700 21 Baseline avg. Statewide annual nitrate-N load 19 water yield (in/yr) 600 17 water yield (in/yr) (million lb N/yr) 500 15 400 13 11 300 9 200 7 100 5 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018

Statewide estimates of annual TP loads (green), water yield (blue), 1980-96 baseline average (solid red line), five year moving average values (dashed lines) 1980-96 TP baseline avg TP load water yield 75 22 65 20 Total P load (million lb P/yr) 18 water yield (in/yr) 55 16 45 14 12 35 10 25 8 15 6 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019

TP Load Estimates for Major Rivers in Illinois 1980-96, 2013-17, 2014-18 and 2015-19 20 1980-96 2013-17 2014-18 2015-19 18 +27% 16 14 Million lb P/yr 12 10 8 6 +86% +77% 4 +34% +49% +12% 2 +10% -4% 0 Embarras Little Big Muddy Kaskaskia Illinois Rock (inc. Green Vermilion Wabash Kishw)

Chan anges in Riverine TP Loads from 1980-96 to 2013-17 and 2014-18 for major rivers draining Illinois 4 2013-17 2014-18 2015-19 +27% 3.5 3 Million lb P/yr 2.5 +86% 2 +77% 1.5 1 +34% +49% 0.5 +12% +10% -4% 0 Embarras Little Big Muddy Kaskaskia Illinois Rock (inc. Green Vermilion Wabash Kishw)

Nitrate-N Load Estimates for Major Rivers in Illinois 1980-96, 2013-17, 2014-18 and 2015-19 1980-96 2013-17 2014-18 2015-19 200 +3% 150 Million lb N/yr 100 50 +140% +24% -9% +29% +35% -11% +4% 0 Embarras Little Big Kaskaskia Illinois Rock (inc. Green Vermilion Wabash Muddy Kishw)

Chan anges in Riverine Nitrate-N Loads from 1980-96 to 2013-17, 2014-18 and 2015-19 for major rivers in Illinois +140% 2013-17 2014-18 2015-19 20 10 Million lb NO3-N/yr +3 +24 % +35% +29% % +4% -11% -9% 0 Embarras Little Big Kaskaskia Illinois Rock (inc. Green Vermilion Wabash Muddy Kishw) -10 -20 -13% -30

Changes in water yield from the 1980-96 baseline 60% 2013-17 2014-18 2015-19 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Embarras Little Big Muddy Kaskaskia Illinois Rock (inc. Green Vermilion Wabash Kishw)

Illinois portion of the Rock River Watershed USGS and IEPA monitoring locations at Rockton and Joslin Rockton Perryville and Perryville on the Kishwaukee Joslin Modified from ISWS

Nitrate-N loads 1980-96 (excluding 1993-4) and 2013-2017 Rock River and subbasins 1993-4 were excluded from all sites because 35000 of concentration gaps at Perryville and 1980-96 2013-17 Rockton 30000 Nitrate-N Load (Mg N/yr) 25000 20000 8,500 Mg N/yr = 15000 19 million lb N/yr 10000 5000 0 1 9 19 21 Joslin Rockton Perryville Rock-(Rockton+Perryville) Square miles: 9,549 6,363 1,099 2,087

Nitrate-N yield 1980-96 (excluding 1993-4) and 2013-2017 Rock River and subbasins 1993-4 were excluded from all sites because 18 of concentration gaps 16 1980-96 2013-17 at Perryville and Rockton Nitrate-N yield (lb N/ac-yr) 14 12 Green River 10 1980-96: 11.3 2013-17: 13.9 8 6 4 2 Why so low? 0 5 10 20 23 Joslin Rockton Perryville Rock-(Rockton+Perryville) Square miles: 9,549 6,363 1,099 2,087

Why was the nitrate-N yield from the section of the Rock downstream of Rockton and Perryville so low in 1980-96? Potential answers: • Delayed arrival of nitrate leaching from previous decades through a long groundwater flow pathway? • High in-stream denitrification that was later reduced due to higher flows, especially in June and July? • Changes in ag practices? (Irrigated acres increased by 50,000 acres between 1978 and 2017 in Whiteside and Ogle Counties) • Lack of tile drainage that was later added, especially in conjunction with irrigation

Green River Lowlands https://www.isws.illinois.edu/groundwater-science/groundwater-monitoring-well-networks/green-river-lowlands-monitoring

Nitrate-N concentrations in public water supply wells located near the Rock River From Daniel Abrams, Walton Kelly, Vlad Iordache and my proposal to NREC; data from ISWS Community Water Supply database.

Irrigated acres in Whiteside + Ogle Counties 70000 60000 50000 irrigated acres 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 USDA Census of Agriculture data

Fraction of Whiteside plus Ogle Counties planted to corn 0.6 fraction of countues planted to corn 0.55 0.5 0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service 1979-95 avg: 0.47; 2012-16 avg: 0.53 increase of 41,500 acres of corn