NT Regional Infrastructure Study Economic Drivers (Output One) Darw arwin in (To (Top End p End R Reg egion) ion)
Economic Drivers Overview Analysis of the drivers of economic growth in the Northern Territory: Northern Territory Regional Infrastructure Study
Economic Performance and Outlook – Demographic Characteristics • Northern Territory has a small population subject to volatile changes. • Changes are largely driven by changes in net interstate migration associated with the strength of employment opportunities. • Population growth of 1.7 per cent per annum, slightly higher than the national average. • Significant issues associated with population measurement due to interstate migration and data collection issues in remote communities. • Compared with Australia as a whole, the Northern Territory has a higher proportion of residents who are under the age of 50. • Northern Territory population has a significantly higher share of Indigenous residents (30 per cent) compared to Australia as a whole (3 per cent). Northern Territory Regional Infrastructure Study
Economic Performance and Outlook – Demographic Characteristics • Over half the population are in Darwin and Regional Northern Territory population, 2013 surrounding areas. • Regional distribution of Unincorporated NT 4% West Arnhem 3% the population outside Wagait 0% of Darwin includes a Victoria-Daly 3% large number of very Tiwi Islands 1% Roper Gulf 3% small communities (e.g. Palmerston 13% population of less than MacDonnell 3% 100 persons). Litchfield 9% Katherine 5% East Arnhem 4% Darwin 34% Coomalie 1% Central Desert 2% Belyuen 0% Barkly 3% Alice Springs 12% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Share of total population (%) Northern Territory Regional Infrastructure Study
Economic Performance and Outlook – Demographic Characteristics Average annual population growth, 2003 to 2013 • Above average growth Northern Territory 1.8% surrounding Darwin Unincorporated NT 2.0% West Arnhem 1.9% • Some regions Wagait 4.6% experiencing slow Victoria-Daly 1.4% Tiwi Islands 2.4% growth and some Roper Gulf 1.4% experiencing population Palmerston 3.3% MacDonnell 0.3% decline. Litchfield 3.1% Katherine 1.3% East Arnhem 2.2% Darwin 1.7% Coomalie 1.3% Central Desert -0.4% Belyuen -0.1% Barkly 1.0% Alice Springs 0.7% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% Population growth (%) Northern Territory Regional Infrastructure Study
Economic Performance and Outlook – Economic Performance and Structure • Northern Territory Gross state (domestic) product growth accounted for 1.3 per cent of total Australian 8% GDP in 2012-13. 7% 7% • In 2012-13, the 6% Northern Territory 6% experienced the 5% 5% 5% 5% Annual growth rate (%) strongest growth of all 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% Australian states and 3% 3% 3% territories. 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Northern Territory Australia Northern Territory Regional Infrastructure Study
Economic Performance and Outlook – Economic Performance and Structure Industry gross value added Largest contributors to Australia Other services GSP: Arts and recreation services Northern Territory • Mining Health care and social assistance Education and training • Construction Public administration and safety Administrative and support services • Public Administration Professional, scientific and technical… Rental, hiring and real estate services and Safety Financial and insurance services Information media and telecommunications Transport, postal and warehousing Accommodation and food services Retail trade Wholesale trade Construction Electricity, gas, water and waste services Manufacturing Mining Agriculture, forestry and fishing 0% 10% 20% 30% Share of total (%) Northern Territory Regional Infrastructure Study
Economic Performance and Outlook – Economic Performance and Structure Largest employing Industry employment industries: Top End • Public Administration Other services Northern Arts and recreation services and Safety Territory Health care and social… • Health Care and Social Education and training Public administration and… Assistance Administrative and… • Retail Trade Professional, scientific… Rental, hiring and real… Financial and insurance… Information media and… Transport, postal and… Accommodation and food… Retail trade Wholesale trade Construction Electricity, gas, water and… Manufacturing Mining Agriculture, forestry and… 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Units Northern Territory Regional Infrastructure Study
Economic Performance and Outlook – Labour Force Employment growth and unemployment rates Unemployment in the 6.0% 10.0% Northern Territory is 5.0% generally lower than the 7.5% 4.0% national rate. Unemployment rate (%) Employment growth (%) 3.0% 5.0% Large increase in 2.0% employment growth in 2.5% recent quarters. 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.5% -2.0% -3.0% -5.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Employment growth (Northern Territory - seasonal (RHS)) Unemployment rate (Northern Territory (LHS)) Unemployment rate (Australia (LHS)) Northern Territory Regional Infrastructure Study
Economic Performance and Outlook – Labour Force Significant regional variation in unemployment Regional unemployment rates rates across the Northern Territory and within the Northern Territory 4% Unincorporated NT 2% regions of the top end. West Arnhem 14% Wagait 4% Participation rates are Victoria-Daly 12% consistent with State Tiwi Islands 9% Roper Gulf 19% levels, though also vary Palmerston 4% across the region. MacDonnell 15% Litchfield 3% Katherine 6% East Arnhem 20% Darwin 4% Coomalie 8% Central Desert 14% Belyuen 6% Barkly 11% Alice Springs 3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Unemployment rate (%) Northern Territory Regional Infrastructure Study
Economic Performance and Outlook – Economic Performance and Structure Industries experiencing employment growth included: • Public administration and safety; • Construction; • Finance and insurance; and • Manufacturing. Growth in these industries was partially offset by declines in the following: • Agriculture, forestry and fishing; • Education and training; • Information, media and telecommunications; and • Wholesale trade. Northern Territory Regional Infrastructure Study
Economic Performance and Outlook – Northern Territory Economic Outlook Growth in the Northern Territory is expected to Predicated average economic growth rates continue to remain 4.0% stronger than the national 3.4% average. 3.5% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% This reflects continuation 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 3.0% 2.8% 5-year average growth (%) 2.7% 2.7% of higher than average 2.5% growth in both population 2.0% and labour force 1.5% participation. 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2015-16 to 2020-21 to 2025-26 to 2030-31 to 2035-36 to 2040-41 to 2019-20 2024-25 2029-30 2034-35 2039-40 2044-45 Northern Territory Australia Northern Territory Regional Infrastructure Study
Economic Performance and Outlook – Northern Territory Economic Outlook Employment growth is expected to continue to Predicated average unemployment rates increase in the near term. 6.0% Growth is underpinned by 5.2% 5.1% construction activity for 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.5% major projects. 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 5-year average (%) 4.0% The projected long run unemployment rate is 3.0% lower than the predicted 2.0% national average. 1.0% 0.0% 2015-16 to 2020-21 to 2025-26 to 2030-31 to 2035-36 to 2040-41 to 2019-20 2024-25 2029-30 2034-35 2039-40 2044-45 Northern Territory Australia Northern Territory Regional Infrastructure Study
Industry Performance, Barriers and Opportunties
Industry Performance, Barriers and Opportunities - Agriculture Output Employment $347 million (1.8% of NT total) 1,900 (1.5% of NT total) 30.0% growth from 2003-13 3.3% growth from 2003-13 Contributed 1.2% to total NT Contributed 0.2% to total NT growth from 2003-13 growth from 2003-13 Infrastructure Barriers Industry Development Opportunities • Road accessibility and quality • High Value Horticulture • Port facilities for horticulture Commodity Export exports • Year-Round Livestock Export • Port facilities for livestock exports Trade • Port facilities for fisheries exports Northern Territory Regional Infrastructure Study
Industry Performance, Barriers and Opportunities - Mining and Energy Output Employment $3.7 billion (19.5% of NT) 4,400 workers (3.5% of NT) 61.4% growth from 2003-13 97.5% growth from 2003-13 Contributed to 21.1% to total Contributed to 8.1% to total NT NT growth from 2003-13 growth from 2003-13 Infrastructure Barriers Industry Development Opportunities • Port of Darwin capacity & other • port/ barge loading issues Expansion of gold mining • • Rail gauge Increase in iron ore exports • • Road and power infrastructure Development of an unconventional gas industry • Pipeline infrastructure Northern Territory Regional Infrastructure Study
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