Northern Bald Ibis on the IUCN Red List Background to the IUCN Red - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2 nd Meeting of the AEWA Northern Bald Ibis International Working Group 25-27 September 2017, Agadir, Morocco Northern Bald Ibis on the IUCN Red List • Background to the IUCN Red List and the Categories and Criteria • Applying the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria to Northern Bald Ibis • Implications for conservation designations and legal status • Summary and next steps

2 nd Meeting of the AEWA Northern Bald Ibis International Working Group 25-27 September 2017, Agadir, Morocco What is the IUCN Red List (and what is it not)? • The IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria are intended to be an easily and widely understood system for classifying species at high risk of global extinction. The general aim of the system is to provide an explicit, objective framework for the classification of the broadest range of species according to their extinction risk. However, while the Red List may focus attention on those taxa at the highest risk, it is not the sole means of setting priorities for conservation measures for their protection . • The category of threat is not necessarily sufficient to determine priorities for conservation action. The category of threat simply provides an assessment of the extinction risk under current circumstances , whereas a system for assessing priorities for action will include numerous other factors concerning conservation action such as costs, logistics, chances of success, and other biological characteristics of the subject.

2 nd Meeting of the AEWA Northern Bald Ibis International Working Group 25-27 September 2017, Agadir, Morocco IUCN Red List Categories CR taxa are considered to be facing an extremely high risk of extinction in the wild EN taxa are considered to be facing a very high risk of extinction in the wild VU taxa are considered to be facing a high risk of extinction in the wild

2 nd Meeting of the AEWA Northern Bald Ibis International Working Group 25-27 September 2017, Agadir, Morocco Summary of IUCN Red List Criteria

2 nd Meeting of the AEWA Northern Bald Ibis International Working Group 25-27 September 2017, Agadir, Morocco Assessment of NBI against IUCN Red List Criteria Which populations are eligible for inclusion in the Red List assessment? • Only Moroccan birds (plus any remnant eastern population). • Spanish birds are not yet considered fully self-sustaining under IUCN guidelines, nor are those in central Europe and at Birecik. Criterion A – population size reduction: • Need to estimate rate of population decline over three generations (estimated at 3x8 = 24 years for this species). • Morocco – increase from 59 to 116 pairs over the 19 years to 2015. • Eastern population declined during past 24 years, but would have had to have been >1,000 mature individuals in 1993 for overall global rate of decline to have been 80% or higher (threshold for CR under criterion A). • Has there been any overall decline in global population in past 24 years? Only if eastern population was at least 130 mature individuals in 1993 (not considered likely). • No known basis to predict an extremely rapid future decline over the next 24 years - or even a moderately rapid one? Red List Category under Criterion A = Least Concern

2 nd Meeting of the AEWA Northern Bald Ibis International Working Group 25-27 September 2017, Agadir, Morocco Assessment of NBI against IUCN Red List Criteria Criterion B - geographic range: Small range (extent of occurrence or area of occupancy) PLUS at least two of three conditions: • Severely fragmented or few locations? Not severely fragmented – more than 50% of the population is not in isolated, unsustainably small subpopulations. Number of locations – at least two (the two main Moroccan colonies). Within range 2-5 ( EN ). • Extreme fluctuations (eg. population or range fluctuates by at least an order of magnitude) – No. • Continuing decline in extent of occurrence, area of occupancy, area/extent/quality of habitat, number locations/subpopulations, number of mature individuals – occurring now or projected to occur? Continuing decline is not currently occurring. It is possible to project continuing declines eg. in quality of habitat, but these must be explicitly justified and must be high degree of certainty that they will take place (i.e. merely 'plausible' future declines are not allowed). Red List Category under Criterion B = Near Threatened (or possibly Endangered if there is sufficient certainty and justification to project a continuing decline in quality of habitat)

2 nd Meeting of the AEWA Northern Bald Ibis International Working Group 25-27 September 2017, Agadir, Morocco Assessment of NBI against IUCN Red List Criteria Criterion C - small, declining population: • Observed, estimated, projected or inferred continuing decline in population? No. • A continuing decline can be projected, thus, it does not have to have started yet. However, such projected declines must be justified and there must be high degree of certainty that they will take place (i.e., merely 'plausible' future declines are not allowed) Red List Category under Criterion C = Near Threatened (approaches but does not meet all conditions for listing as threatened under this criterion) Criterion D – very small or restricted population • CR – fewer than 50 mature individuals – no. • EN – fewer than 250 mature individuals – yes (just). Red List Category under Criterion D = Endangered Criterion E – quantitative analysis of extinction probability • Not applicable. Quantitative analysis meeting IUCN requirements has not been carried out for the species. Overall assessment: Endangered under criterion D

2 nd Meeting of the AEWA Northern Bald Ibis International Working Group 25-27 September 2017, Agadir, Morocco Impact of Red List status change on conservation designations • Differing status of eastern population reflected in AEWA Action Plan which separates two ‘flyway’ populations, each of which is assessed separately against the AEWA prioritisation criteria • All existing policies and legislation will continue to apply to the species even if Red List status is revised to EN : Endangered (D)

2 nd Meeting of the AEWA Northern Bald Ibis International Working Group 25-27 September 2017, Agadir, Morocco Summary and next steps • BirdLife International, as Red List Authority for birds, has a responsibility to ensure consistency in our assessments. We risk losing scientific credibility – and risk these assessments being rejected by IUCN - if we fail to do so. • Downlisting on the IUCN Red List indicates that the species concerned is further from extinction, and should be welcomed. Celebrating success is important to reinforce the message that conservation works, and to incentivize donors. • A change of status from Critically Endangered to Endangered means that the species is now considered to have a very high risk of extinction in the wild , instead of an extremely high risk of extinction in the wild - it does not indicate ‘job done’ but is a small but significant step in the right direction!

2 nd Meeting of the AEWA Northern Bald Ibis International Working Group 25-27 September 2017, Agadir, Morocco Summary and next steps • Discovery of new Moroccan colonies is welcome news – does not in itself affect categorisation but adds further weight to proposal • Species is really borderline EN/VU, rather than borderline CR/EN. But we recognise that downlisting further than EN is not yet warranted. • Loss of eastern population tragic but does not in itself warrant maintaining as Critically Endangered • Listing as Endangered is best reflection of extinction risk and consistent with listing of other species • There will be no Red List status change for NBI in 2017 – consultation has been extended to 2018 • Please visit www.birdlife.org/globally-threatened-bird-forums to contribute to discussion between now and summer 2018 • 2018 Red List will be published late 2018