NOBINA AB 1 Investor presentation, Interim report September 2018 – November 2018 Nobina investor presentation, Q3 2018/19
PROFITABLE GROWTH IN THIRD QUARTER NET SALES EBITA EBT CASH FLOW SEK Millions SEK Millions SEK Millions SEK Millions 2,609 256 214 -70 (2,260) (221) (185) (128) Q3 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS • Net sales* grew 13.3% supported by the Samtrans acquisition, increased revenue in existing contracts and index revenue • EBT increased to SEK 214 million driven by improving profitability in existing contracts and contribution from incentive contracts despite the ending replacement traffic in Helsinki in January 2018. EBT includes 13 MSEK amortizations on immaterial assets related to M&A. • Cash flow from operations before changes in working capital increased to SEK 431 million (382) • Investments of SEK 178 million (59) in buses and other equipment *adjusted for currency effects and discontinuing operations Nobina investor presentation, Q3 2018/19 2
JOURNEY STARTED TOWARDS ACHIEVING NEW FINANCIAL TARGETS NET SALES EBITA EBT CASH FLOW SEK Millions SEK Millions SEK Millions SEK Millions 7,205 487 372 -444 (6,541) (433) (325) (-238) YTD FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS • Net sales* grew 7.9% from the Samtrans acquistion, increased revenue in existing contracts, indexation and extra traffic • EBT increased to SEK 372 million driven by business development in existing contracts and extra traffic despite negative result impact compared to last year after ending replacement traffic in Helsinki in January 2018. • Cash flow from operations before changes in working capital was SEK 1,006 million (914) • Investments of SEK 285 million (543) in buses and other equipment *adjusted for currency effects and discontinuing operations 3 Nobina investor presentation, Q3 2018/19
SIGNIFICANT EVENTS IN Q3 • On Oct 1st Nobina closed the acquisition of Samtrans • At the Capital Markets Day in October Nobina clarified the strategic focus areas and presented new financial targets • In November Nobina defended contracts with HSL in Helsinki with a total value of around SEK 1,2 billion extending over the contract tenors of up to seven years • On November 30th Nobina closed the acquisition of De Blaa Omnibusser in Denmark with a revenue in 2017 of DKK 158 million and an EBT-margin of 16%. Total purchase price of DKK 210 million • Hedging LTI programs by buying back approximately 1,2 million Nobina shares 4 Nobina investor presentation, Q3 2018/19
SIGNIFICANT EVENTS AFTER THE QUARTER On December 18 th Nobina AB obtained an • investment grade credit rating from Fitch Ratings (BBB-, Stable outlook) 5 Nobina investor presentation, Q3 2018/19
M&A AND ORGANIC EFFORTS SUPPORTING GROWTH AND PROFITABILITY • Two acquisitions closed with positive impact from Samtrans in the quarter and coming focus on successful integration to release future potential • Increasing number of passengers in Sweden leading to profitable growth in incentive contracts • Profitable additional business supporting contract performance • Autonomous buses in Barkarbystaden started according to plan 6 Nobina investor presentation, Q3 2018/19
MAJOR PART OF NOBINA’S EXPOSED TRAFFIC ANNOUNCED Definitions: • Nobina submitted tenders for 1 999 buses Available - Remaining buses available in tenders this year Submitted – Number of buses in tenders submitted by Nobina • Nobina won 434 of the 1 877 announced buses Pending – Submitted less announced Announced – Submitted tenders, results are announced Won – Nobina’s wins out of announced tenders TENDER UPDATE Number of buses Tender results during the period March 2018 – (number of buses) November 2 500 2018 1 999 Announced Won 1 877 2 000 682 162 Sweden 1 500 1 434 1 324 879 127 Norway 1 000 493 434 296 145 Finland 500 122 187 565 553 493 247 20 0 Denmark 0 12 Submitted Pending Announced Won Remaining available Total 1 877 434 Nobina operating old contract Others operating old contract 7 Nobina investor presentation, Q3 2018/19
STARTED CONTRACTS THIS YEAR MAINLY IN FINLAND • Nobina started contracts involving 44 buses during the period • Nobina ended contracts involving 83 buses during the period 8.1 Traffic changes during the period Average weighted contract length March 2018 – (number of buses) November (last year) (8.1) 2018 Started Ended 2 0 Sweden 4.5 Average weighted contract age 0 72 Norway (last year) (4.1) 42 11 Finland 0 0 Denmark 6.5 Average age of bus fleet Total 44 83 (last year) (5.9) 8 Nobina investor presentation, Q3 2018/19
CONTRACT MIGRATION PACE CONTINUES TO INCREASE Traffic starts December 2018 –November 2019 Expiring contracts December 2018 – November 2019 PTA No. of years Traffic start No. of buses New buses PTA Traffic ending No. of buses Skånetrafiken 2,5 Dec 2018 12 12 HSL, Finland Dec 2018 15 Värmlandstrafik 8 Dec 2018 7 - Västtrafik Jun 2019 23 HSL, Finland 2 Jan 2019 17 9 Skånetrafiken Jun 2019 79 Västtrafik 10 Mar 2019 13 13 Ruter, Norge Jun 2019 27 Movia, Denmark 6 Apr 2019 20 20 LT Sörmland Aug 2019 119 Västtrafik 10 Jun 2019 23 15 HSL, Finland Aug 2019 122 Ruter, Norge 8 Jul 2019 127 127 TFT, Norge Aug 2019 127 HSL, Finland 1 Aug 2019 59 - LT Örebro Sep 2019 100 HSL, Finland 7 Aug 2019 56 48 Total 612 LT Sörmland 10 Aug 2019 130 58 Nobina will end contracts involving a total of 612 Total 464 302 in-service buses in the next 12 months Nobina will start new contracts involving a total of 464 in-service buses in the next 12 months 9 Nobina investor presentation, Q3 2018/19
STRONG PROFIT GROWTH IN YOUNG CONTRACTS IN SWEDEN SWEDEN - NET SALES SWEDEN – EBIT* Q3 HIGHLIGHTS SEK million SEK million 1 883 • Net sales increased by acquisition of 1 666 1 606 1 587 1 548 1 520 1 511 1 512 Samtrans, additional sales in existing 1 447 contracts and index revenues 230 173 • EBIT significantly higher than last year 134 coming from profitability driven by 115 115 105 90 88 maturing contract portfolio, incentives 47 and profitable additional business Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 DENMARK - NET SALES DENMARK – EBIT* Q3 HIGHLIGHTS SEK million SEK million • Increased Net sales coming from existing contract portfolio 7 151 150 6 6 6 141 142 139 136 135 133 131 • EBIT just over last year 4 4 1 -2 - Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 * Acquisition related cost of 13 MSEK in Sweden and 2 MSEK in Denmark excluded 10 Nobina investor presentation, Q3 2018/19
NEW BUSINESS IN FINLAND ADDING TO GROWTH FINLAND - NET SALES FINLAND - EBIT Q3 HIGHLIGHTS SEK million SEK million • Net sales higher than last year favorably affected by started contracts and 317 288 283 278 272 currency effects 28 269 269 264 27 250 23 22 22 • EBIT lower than last year after ending of 17 the metro replacement traffic in Helsinki 13 11 10 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 NORWAY - NET SALES NORWAY - EBIT Q3 HIGHLIGHTS SEK million SEK million Net sales lower than last year after close • down of Nordhordland contract 292 258 259 263 253 261 250 269 248 • EBIT lower than last year with lag in 10 - 2 13 16 6 index compensation for fuel cost -11 -3 -8 increases and low efficiency in Tromsö Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 11 Nobina investor presentation, Q3 2018/19
THIRD QUARTER RESULTS WELL ABOVE LAST YEAR KEY POINTS Q3 Q3 YTD YTD SEK million Change Change • Net sales growth based on 18/19 17/18 18/19 17/18 added business from Samtrans Net sales 2 609 2 260 349 7 205 6 541 664 and growth in existing EBITDAR 436 391 45 1 034 958 76 contracts, where both % of net sales 16,7 % 17,3 % 14,3 % 14,6 % production and incentive based Net sales increased EBITDA 429 384 45 1025 932 93 % of net sales 16,4 % 16,9 % 14,4 % 14,2 % • EBT margin 8,2 % for the EBITA 256 221 35 487 433 54 quarter with favorable % of net sales 9,8 % 9,8 % 6,7 % 6,6 % contribution from profit EBIT 243 220 23 464 429 37 growth in younger contracts, % of net sales 9,3 % 9,7 % 6,4 % 6,6 % incentives, contract management as well as Interest income - - - - - - contract migration Interest expenses -30 -33 3 -94 -100 6 FX net 1 -2 3 2 -4 6 EBT 214 185 29 372 325 47 % of net sales 8,2 % 8,2 % 5,2 % 5,0 % Tax -48 -40 -8 -87 -74 -13 Earnings after tax 166 145 21 285 251 34 12 Nobina investor presentation, Q3 2018/19
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