economic and fiscal outlook
play

Economic and fiscal outlook Robert Chote Chairman 13 March 2018 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Apr 03, 2023 •139 likes •790 views

Economic and fiscal outlook Robert Chote Chairman 13 March 2018 Coverage and process Five year forecasts, plus assessment of targets Independent BRC responsible for conclusions Sent near-final forecast to Chancellor on 28

  1. Economic and fiscal outlook Robert Chote Chairman 13 March 2018

  2. Coverage and process • Five year forecasts, plus assessment of targets • Independent BRC responsible for conclusions • Sent near-final forecast to Chancellor on 28 February • Met with Chancellor and officials on the same day • Draft document shared last Wednesday • No pressure to change anything

  3. Key points • Outlook for economy and public finances little changed • Slightly stronger GDP growth near-term, thanks to world economy • But no change to medium-term growth potential • Budget deficit revised down by £4.7bn this year, then by less • Margin against fiscal targets virtually unchanged • Balancing the budget still looks very challenging • Brexit ‘divorce bill’ within Treasury range at £37.1bn

  4. Quarterly GDP growth 0.8 Percentage change on a quarter earlier November 2017 0.7 March 2018 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

  5. Quarterly GDP growth 0.8 Percentage change on a quarter earlier November 2017 0.7 March 2018 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

  6. Quarterly GDP growth 0.8 Percentage change on a quarter earlier November 2017 0.7 March 2018 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 November: 1.8% in 2016 to 1.5% in 2017 0.1 March: 1.9% in 2016 to 1.7% in 2017 0.0 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

  7. GDP growth in the G7 4.0 UK Canada 3.5 Percentage change on a year earlier France Germany 3.0 Italy Japan 2.5 US 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2016 2017

  8. GDP growth in the G7 4.0 UK Canada 3.5 Percentage change on a year earlier France Germany 3.0 Italy Japan 2.5 US 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2016 2017

  9. Post referendum judgements • Weaker net inward migration – Yes, down from 336k to 244k • Inflation squeeze on consumers – Yes, but consumers have saved less • Weaker business investment – Yes, but not as bad as expected • Boost from net trade – Yes, but weaker than expected

  10. GDP growth: 5 measures 3.0 2016 2017 2.5 Annual per cent change 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Headline GDP (market prices)

  11. GDP growth: 5 measures 3.0 2016 2017 2.5 Annual per cent change 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Headline GDP Output approach Income approach Expenditure Headline GVA (market prices) (basic prices) (basic prices) approach (basic (basic prices) prices)

  12. Real GDP, labour input and productivity 2.0 Output per worker Output per hour Percentage change: 17Q2 t o17Q4 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 November forecast Latest data -0.8 Difference -1.2 Real GDP Employment Output per Average hours Total hours Output per worker per week worked hour

  13. Real GDP, labour input and productivity 2.0 Output per worker Output per hour Percentage change: 17Q2 t o17Q4 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 November forecast Latest data -0.8 Difference -1.2 Real GDP Employment Output per Average hours Total hours Output per worker per week worked hour

  14. Real GDP, labour input and productivity 2.0 Output per worker Output per hour Percentage change: 17Q2 t o17Q4 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 November forecast Latest data -0.8 Difference -1.2 Real GDP Employment Output per Average hours Total hours Output per worker per week worked hour

  15. Productivity 120 June 2010 Successive forecasts 115 November 2017 March 2018 110 Outturn (November) 2009Q1 = 100 Outturn (March) 105 100 95 90 85 80 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

  16. Output versus potential 4 Range of estimates OBR estimate 3 2 1 0 Per cent -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

  17. Quarterly GDP growth 0.8 0.7 Percentage change on a quarter earlier 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 November 2017 0.1 March 2018 0.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

  18. GDP growth 4 November 3 2 Per cent 1 0 -1 -2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

  19. GDP growth 4 November March 3 1.9 2 1.7 Per cent 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1 0 -1 -2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

  20. GDP growth 4 November March 3 2 Per cent 1 0 -1 -2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

  21. CPI inflation 5 November March 4 3 Per cent 2 1 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

  22. Nominal GDP growth Cumulative percentage November March Difference growth, 2017-18 to 2022-23 7.3 7.0 -0.2 Real GDP 16.3 16.3 -0.1 Nominal GDP 15.5 15.7 0.2 Wages and salaries 17.2 17.5 0.3 Non-North Sea profits Nominal consumer -0.8 17.8 17.0 spending 12.4 11.5 -0.9 Real business investment

  23. Public sector net borrowing 180 November 2017 160 March 2018 140 120 £ billion 100 80 60 40 20 0

  24. Public sector net borrowing 180 November 2017 160 March 2018 140 120 £ billion 100 80 60 40 20 0

  25. Public sector net borrowing 180 November 2017 160 March 2018 140 120 £ billion 100 80 60 40 -4.7 -2.4 -0.8 20 -4.0-4.1-4.2 0

  26. Change in PSNB 10 Underlying 5 receipts Underlying £ billion spending 0 -0.8 Government decisions -2.4 -5 -4.0 -4.1 -4.2 -4.7 Total -10 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23

  27. Change in PSNB 10 Underlying 5 receipts Underlying £ billion spending 0 Government decisions -5 Total -10 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23

  28. Change in PSNB 10 Underlying 5 receipts Underlying £ billion spending 0 Government decisions -5 Total -10 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23

  29. Change in PSNB 10 Underlying 5 receipts Underlying £ billion spending 0 Government decisions -5 Total -10 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23

  30. Underlying receipts revisions 10 7.2 6.8 6.8 8 4.4 SA IT 4.9 5.6 6 Other IT/NICs £ billion 4 Onshore CT CGT 2 Other 0 Total -2 -4 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23

  31. Underlying receipts revisions 10 8 SA IT 6 Other IT/NICs £ billion 4 Onshore CT CGT 2 Other 0 Total -2 -4 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23

  32. Underlying receipts revisions 10 8 SA IT 6 Other IT/NICs £ billion 4 Onshore CT CGT 2 Other 0 Total -2 -4 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23

  33. Underlying receipts revisions 10 8 SA IT 6 Other IT/NICs £ billion 4 Onshore CT CGT 2 Other 0 Total -2 -4 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23

  34. Underlying receipts revisions 10 7.2 6.8 6.8 8 4.4 SA IT 4.9 5.6 6 Other IT/NICs £ billion 4 Onshore CT CGT 2 Other 0 Total -2 -4 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23

  35. Underlying spending revisions 10 8 Debt interest 6.0 spending Local authority 6 current spending 3.1 3.0 Departmental £ billion 4 0.8 spending (DEL) 2.0 -0.1 Welfare spending 2 Other spending 0 Total -2 -4 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23

  36. Underlying spending revisions 10 8 Debt interest spending Local authority 6 current spending Departmental £ billion 4 spending (DEL) Welfare spending 2 Other spending 0 Total -2 -4 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23

  37. Underlying spending revisions 10 8 Debt interest spending Local authority 6 current spending Departmental £ billion 4 spending (DEL) Welfare spending 2 Other spending 0 Total -2 -4 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23

  38. Underlying spending revisions 10 8 Debt interest spending Local authority 6 current spending Departmental £ billion 4 spending (DEL) Welfare spending 2 Other spending 0 Total -2 -4 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23

  39. Underlying spending revisions 10 8 Debt interest spending Local authority 6 current spending Departmental £ billion 4 spending (DEL) Welfare spending 2 Other spending 0 Total -2 -4 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23

  40. Underlying spending revisions 10 8 Debt interest 6.0 spending Local authority 6 current spending 3.1 3.0 Departmental £ billion 4 0.8 spending (DEL) 2.0 -0.1 Welfare spending 2 Other spending 0 Total -2 -4 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23

  41. Forecast revision in context 2.0 (rebased to historic nominal GDP forecasts) Size of cash revision over five years 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 Other spending Receipts Debt interest Underlying change -1.5 Nov Mar Nov Mar Dec Mar Dec Mar Dec Mar July Nov Mar Nov Mar Nov Mar 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 18

  42. Borrowing through the year 60 2016-17 50 2017-18 40 £ billion 30 20 10 0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

  43. The Government’s targets

  44. Structural borrowing 10 November March Outturn 8 6 Per cent of GDP 4 2 0 -2 2005-06 2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 2017-18 2019-20 2021-22

  45. Structural borrowing 10 November March Outturn 8 6 Per cent of GDP 4 2 0 -2 2005-06 2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 2017-18 2019-20 2021-22

Recommend

Colorado Economic and Fiscal Outlook Lauren Larson - Director Luke Teater - Deputy Director

Colorado Economic and Fiscal Outlook Lauren Larson - Director Luke Teater - Deputy Director

Colorado Economic and Fiscal Outlook Lauren Larson - Director Luke Teater - Deputy Director March 16, 2020 The economic outlook is extremely uncertain Lead Indicators not yet Reporting Consumer Expectations Declining Corporate Bond Risk

518 views • 36 slides
Fiscal stimulus in an age of debt: how much stimulus are we planning? Economic and social outlook

Fiscal stimulus in an age of debt: how much stimulus are we planning? Economic and social outlook

Fiscal stimulus in an age of debt: how much stimulus are we planning? Economic and social outlook conference John Daley, CEO, Grattan Institute 20 July 2017 How much stimulus are we planning? Projected fiscal tightening has not happened

615 views • 27 slides
Colorado Economic and Fiscal Outlook Lauren Larson - Director Luke Teater - Deputy Director June

Colorado Economic and Fiscal Outlook Lauren Larson - Director Luke Teater - Deputy Director June

Colorado Economic and Fiscal Outlook Lauren Larson - Director Luke Teater - Deputy Director June 19, 2020 1 While recent economic data show growth, economic activity remains extremely low 2 Job Loss Worse than Great Recession Economic

350 views • 18 slides
New Zealand Government Debt Market Outlook January 2019 Overview New Zealand Economic Outlook

New Zealand Government Debt Market Outlook January 2019 Overview New Zealand Economic Outlook

New Zealand Government Debt Market Outlook January 2019 Overview New Zealand Economic Outlook New Zealand Government: Fiscal Outlook Debt Management: Funding Strategy and Announcements 2 Economic Outlook Summary of forecasts Executive

552 views • 29 slides
New Zealand Government Debt Market Outlook February 2018 Overview New Zealand Economic Outlook

New Zealand Government Debt Market Outlook February 2018 Overview New Zealand Economic Outlook

New Zealand Government Debt Market Outlook February 2018 Overview New Zealand Economic Outlook New Zealand Government: Fiscal Priorities New Zealand Government Bonds: Risk/Reward NZDMO: Strategy and Announcements 2 Economic Outlook Growth

506 views • 34 slides
New Zealand Government Debt Market Outlook March 2018 Overview New Zealand Economic Outlook

New Zealand Government Debt Market Outlook March 2018 Overview New Zealand Economic Outlook

New Zealand Government Debt Market Outlook March 2018 Overview New Zealand Economic Outlook New Zealand Government: Fiscal Priorities New Zealand Government Bonds: Risk/Reward NZDMO: Strategy and Announcements 2 Economic Outlook Growth

541 views • 33 slides
Economic and fiscal outlook 18 March 2015 Robert Chote Chairman Coverage and process Five

Economic and fiscal outlook 18 March 2015 Robert Chote Chairman Coverage and process Five

Economic and fiscal outlook 18 March 2015 Robert Chote Chairman Coverage and process Five year forecasts, plus assessment of targets Independent BRC responsible for conclusions Helped by OBR staff and other officials Final

654 views • 37 slides
Economic and fiscal outlook 20 March 2013 Robert Chote Chairman EFO coverage and process

Economic and fiscal outlook 20 March 2013 Robert Chote Chairman EFO coverage and process

Economic and fiscal outlook 20 March 2013 Robert Chote Chairman EFO coverage and process Five year forecasts, plus assessment of targets Independent BRC responsible for conclusions Helped by OBR staff and other officials Met with

430 views • 27 slides
Economic and fiscal outlook 5 December 2013 Robert Chote Chairman Coverage and process Five

Economic and fiscal outlook 5 December 2013 Robert Chote Chairman Coverage and process Five

Economic and fiscal outlook 5 December 2013 Robert Chote Chairman Coverage and process Five year forecasts, plus assessment of targets Independent BRC responsible for conclusions Helped by OBR staff and other officials Met with

343 views • 32 slides
Colorado Economic and Fiscal Outlook December 20, 2019 Lauren Larson - Director Luke Teater -

Colorado Economic and Fiscal Outlook December 20, 2019 Lauren Larson - Director Luke Teater -

Colorado Economic and Fiscal Outlook December 20, 2019 Lauren Larson - Director Luke Teater - Deputy Director 1 The forecast was revised down slightly from September 2 General Fund Revenue Forecast +2.9% 3 Economic indicators suggest

732 views • 17 slides
Economic and Budget Outlook Assessing Ontarios Medium-term Budget Plan Fall 2019 Overview

Economic and Budget Outlook Assessing Ontarios Medium-term Budget Plan Fall 2019 Overview

Economic and Budget Outlook Assessing Ontarios Medium-term Budget Plan Fall 2019 Overview Government released the 2019 Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review on November 6th. The FAOs Economic and Budget Outlook (EBO) provides

340 views • 9 slides
Colorado Economic and Fiscal Outlook September 20, 2019 Lauren Larson - Director The forecast

Colorado Economic and Fiscal Outlook September 20, 2019 Lauren Larson - Director The forecast

Colorado Economic and Fiscal Outlook September 20, 2019 Lauren Larson - Director The forecast was revised slightly downward from June 2 General Fund Revenue Forecast 3 Forecast Revisions Corporate income tax -- small downward revision

385 views • 13 slides
Colorado Economic and Fiscal Outlook September 20, 2019 Lauren Larson - Director Luke Teater

Colorado Economic and Fiscal Outlook September 20, 2019 Lauren Larson - Director Luke Teater

Colorado Economic and Fiscal Outlook September 20, 2019 Lauren Larson - Director Luke Teater Deputy Director The forecast was revised slightly downward from June 2 General Fund Revenue Forecast 3 Forecast Revisions Corporate income

237 views • 13 slides
Fiscal Trends and Outlook Experience of Mauritius November 2011 Outline 2005 The

Fiscal Trends and Outlook Experience of Mauritius November 2011 Outline 2005 The

Fiscal Trends and Outlook Experience of Mauritius November 2011 Outline 2005 The turning point Fiscal Reforms Revenue Expenditure Public Debt Procurement Facing the Crisis Outcomes Fiscal Outlook 2005

678 views • 15 slides
1 Economic Overview Global Economic Forecasts Domestic Developments Tourism &

1 Economic Overview Global Economic Forecasts Domestic Developments Tourism &

1 Economic Overview Global Economic Forecasts Domestic Developments Tourism & Foreign Direct Investment Inflation Fiscal Sector Monetary Sector Economic Outlook Policy Agenda 2 Mild conditions: on-going FDI

589 views • 31 slides
Review of General Fund Revenues Review of General Fund Revenues and the Virginia Economy for

Review of General Fund Revenues Review of General Fund Revenues and the Virginia Economy for

August 15, 2014 Review of General Fund Revenues Review of General Fund Revenues and the Virginia Economy for Fiscal Year 2014 The Interim Economic Outlook and The Interim Economic Outlook and Revenue Forecast for Fiscal Years 2015 through

568 views • 54 slides
Economic Outlook: Growth, Risks, and Sustainability John McHale Whitaker Institute, NUI Galway

Economic Outlook: Growth, Risks, and Sustainability John McHale Whitaker Institute, NUI Galway

Economic Outlook: Growth, Risks, and Sustainability John McHale Whitaker Institute, NUI Galway Irish Fiscal Advisory Council September 14, 2015 Presentation to the Fianna Fil Parliamentary Party, Marine Hotel, Sutton Overview Recent

543 views • 42 slides
Financial and Economic Outlook City of Lakewood Study Session May 4, 2020 Financial and Economic

Financial and Economic Outlook City of Lakewood Study Session May 4, 2020 Financial and Economic

Financial and Economic Outlook City of Lakewood Study Session May 4, 2020 Financial and Economic Outlook - May 4, 2020 - Finance 1 Economic Outlook Revenue & Expense Overview Fund balance Questions to consider Next Steps Financial and

226 views • 12 slides
COVID-19 and Arizonas Economic Outlook Where We Stand: Economic Impacts of COVID-19 Sun

COVID-19 and Arizonas Economic Outlook Where We Stand: Economic Impacts of COVID-19 Sun

COVID-19 and Arizonas Economic Outlook Where We Stand: Economic Impacts of COVID-19 Sun Corridor, Inc. April 20, 2020 George Hammond, Ph.D. Director Economic and Business Research Center Key Topics Today Uncertainty dominates the

238 views • 9 slides
South Africa: Economic & Market Outlook Hamstrung by the growing twin deficits dilemma

South Africa: Economic & Market Outlook Hamstrung by the growing twin deficits dilemma

South Africa: Economic & Market Outlook Hamstrung by the growing twin deficits dilemma CURRENT ACCOUNT FISCAL BALANCE Johan Rossouw 15 th Feb. 2013 (021) 481-6205 E C O N O M I C johan@vunanisecurities.co.za R E S E A R C H

499 views • 29 slides
Global Economic Outlook: Global Economic Outlook: Shifting Tectonic Plates Shifting Tectonic

Global Economic Outlook: Global Economic Outlook: Shifting Tectonic Plates Shifting Tectonic

Global Economic Outlook: Global Economic Outlook: Shifting Tectonic Plates Shifting Tectonic Plates October 2008 October 2008 Patricia Croft, Vice President & Chief Economist Phillips, Hager & North Investment Management Limited The

457 views • 45 slides
REORIENTATION OF ECONOMIC POLICY: EMPLOYMENT (NOT FISCAL AUSTERITY) AS A PRIORITY Matas

REORIENTATION OF ECONOMIC POLICY: EMPLOYMENT (NOT FISCAL AUSTERITY) AS A PRIORITY Matas

REORIENTATION OF ECONOMIC POLICY: EMPLOYMENT (NOT FISCAL AUSTERITY) AS A PRIORITY Matas Vernengo UNCTAD Geneva, June 23, 2011 Plan of the presentation I. Introduction II. Fiscal Challenges III. Fiscal Space IV. Public Debt

344 views • 16 slides
Comments on the 2019-20 Economic Outlook Presentation to the Addison County Economic Development

Comments on the 2019-20 Economic Outlook Presentation to the Addison County Economic Development

Comments on the 2019-20 Economic Outlook Presentation to the Addison County Economic Development Corporation December 7, 2018 Jeffrey B. Carr President and Senior Economist Economic & Policy Resources, Inc. Now the 2 nd Longest Up -

795 views • 23 slides
Mostafa Askari Assistant Parliamentary Budget Officer, Economic and Fiscal Analysis The

Mostafa Askari Assistant Parliamentary Budget Officer, Economic and Fiscal Analysis The

Economic and Fiscal Impacts of population Ageing in Canada Presentation to the CEA-CDESG Panel Calgary June 9, 2012 Mostafa Askari Assistant Parliamentary Budget Officer, Economic and Fiscal Analysis The Demographic Transition per cent 3.0

418 views • 15 slides

More recommend