NJ Coastal Study Meeting Community Kick-off #1 Photo credit - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

NJ Coastal Study Meeting Community Kick-off #1 Photo credit NOAA/NASA

Today’s Goals 1 2 3 Coastal Study Review Coastal Discuss Opportunities Overview Reanalysis Milestones for Collaboration

FEM EMA A Mit itig igati ation on Div ivision ision Risk sk MAP - Mapping ing Assessment essment and Plan anning ning: : Provide updated flood hazard data to 100% of populated U.S. coasts to create stronger and safer communities

Flo lood od Map aps s Im Impact act Im Impor ortan tant t Decisions cisions To Identif ntify y To Establish tablish To Inform rm To Inform rm To Equip ip Hazard zards s Rates es for Local l Land Engineers gineers Emergenc ergency y and Asses ess s Flood od Use and Managers gers the Ins nsurance urance Plann nning ing Developers De lopers Flood od Risk sk

Nat atio iona nal l Flo lood od In Insurance surance Prog rogra ram m (N (NFIP) FIP) • Voluntary program based on a mutual agreement between the Federal government and the local community. • In exchange for adopting and enforcing a Floodplain Management ordinance, Federally-backed flood insurance is made available. Federal State Local • • • Risk Identification and Building Codes Adoption and Mapping Enforcement of • Technical Assistance Development and • Building/Development • Set Enhanced Building Standards Standards Building/Development • Flood Insurance Standards

Coastal Study Overview

Coa oast stal al St Study udy Anal alysis sis: : 200 009 9 - 2015 15 Advisor sory y Base e Flood ood Elevati El tion on Maps Coast stal l Ap Appeal l Period od Produc duced d Storm rm Study udy March 2015 – Januar ary 2013 Started ed June e 2015 Fall l 2009 Hur urricane cane NYC Ap Appeal Prelimina iminary y Sandy dy FIRMs RMs Octobe ober 2012 Decemb mber er 2013- Decemb mber er 2014

Coa oast stal al St Study udy Anal alysis sis: : 2015 15 - 2017 New York City challenged two aspects of FEMA’s storm surge The FEMA team agreed with NYC’s analysis (validation of extratropical findings and developed an storms and representation of tidal approach to address them effects) FEM EMA A initia iated ed a se series es of analys yses es and “pressure tests” to det etermine ermine next xt steps Region II storm surge, started late Sensitivity analyses conducted and 2017, and reanalysis ysis data will finalized Summer 2017, results are include storms occurring post- informing reanalysis 2010 – Irene, Sandy, 2016 Nor'easter, etc.

Summar mmary y of of Pos ost-Appeal Appeal Sensitiv ensitivity ity Anal alysis ysis (2 (2016-20 2017) 7) • Results from the Region II Coastal Surge Sensitivity Study and a review of the post-2009 storm history will assist in evaluation of which storms should be added to the historical tropical and extra-tropical storm databases. • There were three specific shortcomings within the FEMA study that will be addressed in surge model restudy: Issue sue 1: Extra ratr tropi pical l Storm rm Issue sue 2: Issue sue 3: Inclus usion on of Restudy: tudy: Each of these technical activities Valida dati tion Repre resenta sentati tion on of Post-20 2009 09 Storm rm further explore and expand on the IRB Tidal dal Effects cts Events ts recommendations with the goal of clearly Model Error Analysis and • identifying lessons learned and developing Bias Assessment • Improve analysis • Expand validation technical recommendations that can be of non-linear effort to include carried forward to the revised Region II • Assessment of the 1950 tide/surge historic hurricanes coastal flood risk study. Revised flood maps Storm Event interaction, to improve overall will also be produced for the entire New effort. Reanalysis of Historical • Jersey coastal study area. Wind Fields 9

Previ vious ous Appeals peals NJ/NY /NY Coast stal l Study: udy: Histor ory y of Ap Appeal l Sub ubmi miss ssions ions Number of appeals Total number of not accepted Number of Coun unty ty appeals appeals resolved due to insufficient Information Atlanti tic, c, NJ 7 1 6 Berge gen, n, NJ 10 8 2 Cape e May, NJ 8 3 5 Es Esse sex, x, NJ 6 1 5 Hud udson, son, NJ 5 5 0 Middles dlesex, x, NJ 58 56 2 Monm nmouth, uth, NJ 20 10 10 New York rk City 27 23 4 Ocean, an, NJ 19 3 16 Un Union, on, NJ 7 7 0

Com ommunity munity En Enga gagemen gement • Ext xtern ernal al outreac reach/eng h/engagemen agement t began n Oct. . 17, 2016 • Formal meeting w/City of New York to begin appeal resolution discussions • New Jersey and New York State government and congressional delegation • New Jerse sey y Commun mmunity ity Brief efin ings gs were held bet etween een No November ember 2016 – March 2017 in n 10 coun unties ties reaching hing over 221 communi munitie ties

Map ap Ad Adop option ion Several communities opted to adopt their current maps Effectiv ctive e County nty Communities mmunities LFD Date Date Avalon, Cape May, Cape May Point, Dennis, Middle, North Wildwood, Ocean City, Sea Isle City, Stone Cape May 4/5/2017 10/5/2017 Harbor, Upper ,West Cape May, West Wildwood, Wildwood, Wildwood Crest, and Woodbine Ocean 12/20/2017 6/20/2018 Point Pleasant Beach Borough of Highlands, Little Silver, Matawan, and Monmouth 12/20/2017 6/20/2018 Monmouth Beach Absecon, Brigantine, Egg Harbor Township, City of Atlantic 2/28/18 8/28/18 Egg Harbor (construction only) Hamilton, Linwood, Longport, Margate, and Mullica

Big ig Pic icture ure Next xt St Steps ps Federal deral Sandy dy reco cover ery project jects will continue ntinue to be inform ormed ed by preliminary FIS/FIRMs in NYC, Rockland & Westchester Counties, and coastal NJ Counties. Flood ood Insuranc rance e Rate purchase requirements will continue to be based on current effective FIRMs

Review Coastal Reanalysis Milestones 2017 - Present

Over vervie view of f St Study udy Area ea – Surge urge St Study udy • Surge Study • Tidal Hudson River • Western Long Island Sound • NY & Raritan Bay • Atlantic Ocean • Does NOT include Delaware Bay

Over vervie view of of St Study udy Area ea – Flo lood od Haz azar ard d Map apping ping • Flood Hazard Mapping Communities: • NYC (5 Boroughs); Atlantic, Cape May, Essex, Hudson, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, and Union Counties in NJ

Key y Mil ilest estones ones • All work to be Summer 2017- 2019- performed with tight 2017 2019 2020 quality control • Revised FIRMs will be produced for NYC and Wave Hazard NJ coastal study Full Storm Sensitivity Analyses areas Surge Analysis and Reanalysis Floodplain • Engaging NYC and Mapping NYS & NJ agencies as part of Stakeholder Committee

Qual ality ity Ass ssuran urance • Independ penden ent t Coastal stal Steerin eering g Committ mmittee ee (CSC SC) • Internal group of experts in storm surge modeling and FEMA coastal study process • Independent from study production • Will l esta tablis blish a Stak akehold eholder er Commi mmitt ttee ee for exter ernal al oversight sight • State of New Jersey, State of New York, NYC, FEMA, and CSC

NY NY-NJ NJ St Storm orm Sur urge ge St Study udy - Proje roject ct Go Goal als

Coastal Study Phase 1: Coa oasta stal l St Study udy Phas ase e 1: : St Stor orm m Surge urge St Study udy Storm Surge Study

NYNJ J St Study udy SWAN+ADC N+ADCIR IRC C Mesh sh http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142016_Matthew.pdf

Approac oach h - St Stor orm m Surge rge St Stil illw lwat ater er El Elevati ation on (S (SWE WEL) L) Storm Forcing Hurricane Tracks Storm Surge Modeling Winds Waves Water Levels High-Resolution Bathymetry / Topography Mesh Return Period Analysis JPM-OS for Tropical Storms (low freq.) 5663 EST Analysis for Extra-Tropical Storms (high freq.) 8 jpm Analysis to Develop Combined Probability 6 stochastic Surge (m) 4 2 0 1 10 100 1000 SWEL Return Period (years) 6251 ic JPM-OS: Joint Probability Method - Optimum Sampling EST: Empirical Simulation Technique

Coastal Study Phase 2: Coa oasta stal l St Study udy Phas ase e 2: : Wave e Ha Hazard ard Anal alysis ysis Wave Hazard Analysis Define cross-shore transects Evaluate storm-induced erosion and shore protection structures Wave hazard modeling: overland wave propagation & wave run-up/overtopping

Coastal Study: Floodplain Mapping Coast astal al St Study udy: : Flo loodplai dplain n Map appin ping

Detai ailed led St Study udy Proces rocess Detailed Study Process

Discuss Opportunities for Collaboration