New York Pizza How to Find the Best Jared P. Lander Columbia - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

New York Pizza How to Find the Best Jared P. Lander Columbia University December 3, 2008

What is New York Style?

What is New York Style? Charring and air bubbles around the crust

What is New York Style? Thin Slices Charring and air bubbles around the crust

What is New York Style? Thin Slices Just the right bend for folding Charring and air bubbles around the crust

Family Tree

Family Tree Lombardi’s (1905)

Family Tree Lombardi’s (1905) Totonno’s (1924)

Family Tree Lombardi’s (1905) Totonno’s John’s of (1924) Bleecker (1929)

Family Tree Lombardi’s (1905) Patsy’s (1933) Totonno’s John’s of (1924) Bleecker (1929)

Family Tree Lombardi’s (1905) Patsy’s (1933) Totonno’s John’s of (1924) Bleecker (1929) Grimaldi’s (1990)

The Data MenuPages.com has menus, ratings, locations and price information for • nearly 700 restaurants tagged as pizza in Manhattan and parts of Brooklyn Slice, a pizza blog, has a definitive listing (and maps) of coal pizzerias • An exhaustive Google search provided wood classifications •

The Data

Rating Histogram

Ratings Breakdown

Model for Rating logit(Rating/5.5) ~ 0.77571 – 0.1782*AreaMidtown • Coefficients: • Estimate SE t-value Pr(>|t|) ● (Intercept) 0.60326 0.20090 3.003 0.00278 ** ● AreaMidtown -0.17801 0.06628 -2.686 0.00743 ** ●

Model for Rating logit(Rating/5.5) ~ 0.77571 – 0.1782*AreaMidtown • Coefficients: • Estimate SE t-value Pr(>|t|) ● (Intercept) 0.60326 0.20090 3.003 0.00278 ** ● AreaMidtown -0.17801 0.06628 -2.686 0.00743 ** ● AreaDowntown-0.05766 0.05527 -1.043 0.29724 ● AreaUptown -0.04838 0.06016 -0.804 0.42154 ● FuelGas 0.13354 0.11575 1.154 0.24905 ● FuelWood 0.07606 0.12980 0.586 0.55810 ● PriceExpensive-0.02827 0.04009 -0.705 0.48097 ● ReviewsLow 0.03452 0.17958 0.192 0.84762 ● ReviewsMedium0.02728 0.19083 0.143 0.88638 ● PizzaName 0.02684 0.06227 0.431 0.66661 ●

Model for Rating logit(Rating/5.5) ~ 0.77571 – 0.1782*AreaMidtown • Wald test • Model 1: logit(Rating/5.5) ~ Area ● Model 2: logit(Rating/5.5) ~ 1 ● Res.Df Df F Pr(>F) ● 1 640 ● 2 643 -3 2.8195 0.03826 * ● Perhaps is more appropriate due to its simplicity and the • minimal impact of the lone coefficient in the model Maybe all pizza is for the most part pretty good ●

Ratings Breakdown One Sided P-Value .020 .005 .006

Review Count Use the number of reviews as a proxy for popularity Why do people frequent these pizzerias in the first place?

Number of Reviews by Area

Number of Reviews by Fuel

Number of Reviews by Price

Reviews Histogram Approximately Poisson

Model for Review Count Number.Reviews ~ 3.826 + 0.157*AreaUptown – • 1.641*FuelGas – 0.734*FuelWood - 0.545*PriceExpensive + 0.119*FuelGas:PriceExpensive + 0.670*FuelWood:PriceExpensive (Poisson Regression) ● Coefficients: • Estimate SE z-value Pr(>|z|) ● (Intercept) 3.82693 0.05899 64.876 < 2e-16 *** ● AreaUptown 0.15733 0.02156 7.297 2.94e-13 *** ● FuelGas -1.64163 0.06019 -27.273 < 2e-16 *** ● FuelWood -0.73476 0.08884 -8.271 < 2e-16 *** ● PriceExpensive -0.54561 0.07919 -6.890 5.60e-12 *** ● FuelGas:PriceExpensive 1.11908 0.08289 13.501 < 2e-16 *** ● FuelWood:PriceExpensive 0.67017 0.10819 6.195 5.85e-10 *** ●

Model for Review Count Number.Reviews ~ 3.826 + 0.157*AreaUptown – • 1.641*FuelGas – 0.734*FuelWood - 0.545*PriceExpensive + 0.119*FuelGas:PriceExpensive + 0.670*FuelWood:PriceExpensive (Poisson Regression) ● Wald test • ● Model 1: Number.Reviews ~ Area + Fuel + Price + Price * Fuel ● Model 2: Number.Reviews ~ 1 ● Res.Df Df F Pr(>F) ● 1 637 ● 2 643 -6 309.94 < 2.2e-16 ***

Fitted Values Coal and then wood dominates! All pizzerias on this list are categorized as expensive Both Uptown and Downtown

Most Popular

Top Pizzerias • Lombardi’s • Patsy’s (East Harlem) • Di Fara • Artichoke • Joe’s • Maffei’s • John’s of Bleecker • New York Pizza • Totonno’s (Coney Suprema Island) • Una Pizza • Vinny Vincenz Napoletana • Pizza 33 • Franny’s • No. 28

Conclusions

Conclusions • Coal ovens attract large crowds and the higher prices are worth paying

Conclusions • Coal ovens attract large crowds and the higher prices are worth paying • The old adage about pizza is true: “Even when it’s bad, it’s still good.”

Blogosphere Slice Serious Eats Midtown Lunch Revolution Computing NBC New York

Jared’s Picks Pie: John’s of Bleecker Artichoke Specialty: Margherita: Pizza 33 Specialty: Vinny Vincenz Neapolitan: Joe’s (Carmine St.) Maffei’s Grandma: Upscale: Kesté New York Pizza Suprema Upside Down: Largest: Koronet Crocodile Lounge* Cheapest: * Free with purchase of beer