Name of the principal investigator : Prof A. D. Rao, CAS, IIT Delhi - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Title of Project : Computation of maximum possible storm surges generated by tropical cyclones along the Indian coast Name of the principal investigator : Prof A. D. Rao, CAS, IIT Delhi Duration of the project : 9 months Commencement of the project : December 2015

Project Plan A. Phase1 (3 months) Using ADCIRC model, the probable maximum water level elevations generated by any tropical cyclones crossing maritime states of Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Gujarat will be computed at the required horizontal resolution along the coast. These projections include present (no climate change scenario) and two other scenarios based on climate change at different return periods on 10, 50 and 100years. B. Phase2 (3 months) Using ADCIRC model, the probable maximum water level elevations generated by any tropical cyclones crossing maritime states of Andhra, Odisha and West Bengal will be computed at the required horizontal resolution along the coast. These projections include present (no climate change scenario) and two other scenarios based on climate change at different return periods on 10, 50 and 100years.

C. Phase3 (3months) Using ADCIRC model, the probable maximum water level elevations generated by any tropical cyclones crossing maritime states of Tamil Nadu, A&N and Lakshadweep will be computed at the required horizontal resolution along the coast. These projections include present (no climate change scenario) and two other scenarios based on climate change at different return periods on 10, 50 and 100 years.

Sl. Return No climate Most likely Extreme climate no. period change climate scenario scenario scenario 1 10 Normal 7% increase in 11% increase in wind years winds wind speed speed 2 50 Normal 7% increase in 11% increase in wind years winds wind speed speed 3 100 Normal 7% increase in 11% increase in wind years winds wind speed speed

Values of pressure-drop by return period for the west and east coasts of India including Andaman & Nicobar Pressure- drop ΔP( mb) S. No Return period (years) Kerala Karnataka Maharashtra Gujarat 1. 10 5 8 8 12 2. 50 12 15 15 40 3. 100 29 29 37 66 Pressure- drop ΔP(mb) S.No Return periods West Bengal Odisha Andhra Tamil Nadu Andaman & (years) Pradesh Nicobar 1. 10 25 45 48 26 5 2. 50 51 78 70 47 8 3. 100 75 98 82 66 10 Pressure drop for Lakshadweep is considered as 10mb

Location of maximum range of water levels for each maritime state Maritime state Location Maximum surge range (m) 22.2479,72.8982 Gujarat 3.2 - 8.5 (Gulf of Khambhat region) 20.0837, 72.7055 Maharashtra 1.2 - 3.2 ( near Gholvad) 13.3764,74.675 0.4 – 2.0 Karnataka (near Malpe beach) 12.0237,75.1998 Kerala 0.1 - 1.8 (near Ettikulam) 15.7924,80.8132 3.0 – 5.7 Andhra Pradesh (Krishna basin) 21.2164,86.8640 4.6 – 10.3 Odisha (near Basudebpur) 22.0319,88.0991 1.3 – 11.0 West Bengal (near Haldia) 10.3458,79.5660 3.4 – 9.0 Tamil Nadu (near Nagapattinam)

(a) (b) Elevation along the Indian coast on 10-year return period (a) Surges(m) (b) Total water elevations(m)

(a) (b) Elevation along the Indian coast on 10-year return period with 7% increment in winds (a) Surges(m) (b) Total water elevations(m)

(a) (b) Elevation along the Indian coast on 10-year return period with 11% increment in winds (a) Surges(m) (b) Total water elevations(m)

(a) (b) Elevation along the Indian coast on 50-year return period (a) Surges(m) (b) Total water elevations(m)

(a) (b) Elevation along the Indian coast on 50-year return period with 7% increment in winds (a) Surges(m) (b) Total water elevations(m)

(a) (b) Elevation along the Indian coast on 50-year return period with 11% increment in winds (a) Surges(m) (b) Total water elevations(m)

(a) (b) Elevation along the Indian coast on 100-year return period (a) Surges(m) (b) Total water elevations(m)

(a) (b) Elevation along the Indian coast on 100-year return period with 7% increment in winds (a) Surges(m) (b) Total water elevations(m)

(a) (b) Elevation along the Indian coast on 100-year return period with 11% increment in winds (a) Surges(m) (b) Total water elevations(m)

Computed surges in the Gulf of Khambat for all possible scenarios (a-c) for 10-year return period, (d-f) 50-year return period, (g-i) 100-year return period

Maximum surge for 100-year return period along the Indian coast for each scenario Enhancement of surge in terms of percentage due to climate change on 100-year return period over the normal scenario

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