Muntaseer Billah, Satoru Chatani and Kengo Sudo , S C g S - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Muntaseer Billah, Satoru Chatani and Kengo Sudo , S C g S Department of Earth and Environmental Science Graduate School of Environmental Studies N Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan U i it N J Presented at the 8th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 19 ‐ 21, 2009

Bangladesh Bangladesh: at a glance Bangladesh: at a glance � Location: 20 ° 34 ´ and 26 ° 38 ´ N 88 ° 01 ´ and 92 ° 41 ´ E � Area: 147 570 sq km � Area: 147, 570 sq km � Population: 158.6 millions � Population density: 1045/ sq km � Population growth: 1 8% � Population growth: 1.8% � Urban population: 27% � Major cities: Dhaka (12 millions), Chittagong (7 millions), Khulna (3.5millions) Rajshahi (3 millions) j (3 ) � Climate: Tropical monsoon climate, with a hot and rainy summer and a dry winter Average Winter temp. (Max. 26 ° c Min. 11 ° c) Average Summer temp. (Max. 36 ° c Min. 21 ° c) Source: World Bank

Background � Air pollution is the major environmental threat in Bangladesh, particularly big p j g , p y g cities e.g., Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna, Rajshahi… � Air pollution cause annually � ~15000 deaths (~5000 in Dhaka) � ~million cases of sickness requiring medical treatment � ~850 million of minor illness � Economic cost of air pollution in four major cities around US$200 ‐ $800 million p j per year Brick kiln emission � Equivalent to 0.7% ‐ 3% of country’s GDP per year Vehicle emission Vehicle emission Construction work

USEPA certified PM samplers Real time gas monitors Air Quality Status in Dhaka 24 h hours average concentration of P PM in m icrogram s per cub 1h-O3 in ppb b m eter 120 160 200 240 280 100 150 200 200 250 300 350 40 80 50 0 0 A pril,02 April 02 July, 02 June 02 1-hour ozone standard 150 µg/m3 24 Hour Standard for PM10 O ctober,02 August 02 January, 03 Dhaka experiences winter peak ozone October 02 Monthly average of PM 10 and PM 2.5 A pril, 03 Decemb… Monthly average July, 03 February … O ctober,03 April 03 January, 04 p PM10 June 03 A pril, 04 August 03 July, 04 October 03 O ctober, 04 Decemb… January,05 Month Maximum February … A pril,05 PM2.5 April 04 July,05 O ctober, 05 June 04 January, 06 August 04 p 65 µg/m3 24 Hour Standard for PM2.5 A pril, 06 October 04 July, 06 Decemb… Minimum O ctober, 06 February … January, 07 April 05 A pril, 07 June 05 July, 07 August 05 O ctober, 07 October 05 January, 08 Decemb… A pril, 08

Objective � Surrounded by India which is a y significant air pollutants emitter in Asia � R � Receives most air masses from India i t i f I di (during high pollution episode) and Bay of Bengal ( during low pollution episode) � Regional sources of air pollution may be significant for Bangladesh may be significant for Bangladesh � Both local and regional contribution of air pollution need to be identified Average wind field generated by Average wind field generated by MCIP for January 2004 Main Objective j To identify and quantify the local and regional source contribution of air pollution in Bangladesh

Modeling Tools � Meteorological Model: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) version 3.1 � Met Data: NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data (1 ˚ × 1 ˚ ) � Air Quality Model: Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) version 4.7 � Emission Data: REAS emission inventory CMAQ CMAQ WRF Physics option Scheme Mechanism Option Microphysics Microphysics WRF Single ‐ Moment 3 ‐ WRF Single Moment 3 Chemical Ch i l St t Statewide Air Pollution id Ai P ll ti class scheme mechanism Research Center mechanism (SAPRC99) Long wave RRTM scheme radiation Chemical initial Default values for both condition domains (ICONs) Short wave Dudhia scheme radiation Chemical boundary Default values for D1 and Surface layer MM5 similarity condition generated for D2 using BCONs BCONs Land surface Noah Land Surface Aerosol module aero4 Model Planetary Yonsei University Boundary Layer Boundary Layer Scheme Scheme Cumulus Grell 3d ensemble Parameterization cumulus scheme

Domain Setup M d l C fi ti St d A Model Configuration Study Area Domain ‐ 1 Domain ‐ 2 Area Area 3600 km 3600 km 1200 km 1200 km WRF Grids 81 ×81×27 79 ×79×27 CMAQ Grids 69 ×69×27 67 ×67×27 Grid Size 45 km 15 km Horizontal Lambert Lambert Co ‐ ordinate conformal conformal Geographical G hi l 6°N t 6°N to 40° N ° N 18°N to 28°N 8°N t 8°N Co ‐ ordinate 70°E to 110°E 84°E to 96°E Dhaka City

Episode Selection Monthly average PM10 and PM2.5 � Air pollution in Bangladesh has PM10 PM2.5 distinct seasonal variation distinct seasonal variation 300 m3 centration in µg/m 250 � High pollution episode 200 150 observed during dry winter 100 season PM conc 50 0 � Relatively cleaner atmosphere January ebruary March April May June July August ptember October ovember ecember during wet summer season during wet summer season O Sep No De F Month Month ‐ long episodes have been chosen for this sensitivity study Month long episodes have been chosen for this sensitivity study to represent typical peak pollution episode in Bangladesh � December 2003 for model spin up � December 2003 – for model spin up � January 2004 – for analysis

Emission Database and Sensitivity Cases Sensitivity Cases Sensitivity Cases Case Emission sensitivity Region ‐ 3 Case-1 Case-1 Original REAS emission Original REAS emission R Region ‐ 1 i (Base case) Case-2 Shut-off emission in Region-1 (Inside Bangladesh) Case-3 5-times increase of emission in Region-1 Region ‐ 2 (Inside Bangladesh) (Inside Bangladesh) Case-4 Shut-off emission in Region-2 (West Bengal) Case-5 Shut-off emission in Region-3 (North India) Case-6 Shut-off emission in Region-2 (West Bengal) and Region 3 (North and Region-3 (North Potential emission source region India)

CASE ‐ 1 With Original REAS emission g PM2.5_obs PM2.5_mod 250 200 µg/m 3 150 150 PM 2.5 in 100 50 CMAQ can capture 24 ‐ hour average PM2.5 0 trends but underestimate /04 /04 /04 /04 /04 /04 /04 /04 /04 /04 /04 /04 /04 /04 /04 1/1/ 1/3/ 1/5/ 1/7/ 1/9/ 1/11/ 1/13/ 1/15/ 1/17/ 1/19/ 1/21/ 1/23/ 1/25/ 1/27/ 1/29/ Date SO2_obs SO2_mod 160 140 120 CMAQ can not capture hourly variation of ppb 100 gaseous pollutants and largely gaseous pollutants and largely SO2 in p 80 underestimate 60 40 20 0 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 Local Time

CASE ‐ 1 Original REAS emission Original REAS emission Comparison of NO2 with satellite NO2 column data CMAQ CMAQ SCIAMACHY

CASE ‐ 2 Shut-off emission in Region-1 (Inside Bangladesh) CMAQ Result – Monthly Average for January 2004 CO CO 20 to 40 µg/m 3 PM2.5 0.2 ppm to 0.5 ppm CO pp 5 pp PM2.5 O3 40 to 45 ppb O3 4 45 pp 3

CO in ppm C 10 12 14 0 2 4 6 8 0:00 5-times increase of emission in Region-1 (Inside Bangladesh) 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 CO CO_obs 0:00 0:00 Local time 0:00 0:00 b 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 CO CO_mod_case_3 0:00 0:00 0:00 CO 0:00 0:00 d Domain ‐ 2: Comparison with hourly observation 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 Domain ‐ 1: Monthly Average O3 3 in ppb 100 150 50 0 0:00 0:00 CASE ‐ 3 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 O O3_obs 0:00 0:00 0:00 b 0:00 Local Time 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 O3_mod_case_3 O g 0:00 0:00 O3 0:00 0:00 0:00 d 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 ( PM M2.5 in µg/m 3 200 300 250 100 150 50 0 1/1/04 PM2.5_obs 1/3/04 1/5/04 1/7/04 1/9/04 1/11/04 g 1/13/04 Date PM2.5_mod_case_3 1/15/04 1/17/04 PM2.5 1/19/04 1/21/04 1/23/04 1/25/04 1/27/04 ) 1/29/04

CASE ‐ 4 Shut-off emission in Region-2 (West Bengal) Difference between Case1 and Case4 CO PM2.5 O3

CASE ‐ 5 Shut-off emission in Region-3 (North India) Shut off emission in Region 3 (North India) Difference between Case1 and Case5 CO O3 PM2.5

CASE ‐ 4 vs CASE ‐ 5 Contribution of West Bengal (Region-2) and North India (Region-3) in % Contribution of West Bengal (Region 2) and North India (Region 3) in % CO O3 PM2.5 West Bengal CO O3 PM2.5 North India

CASE ‐ 6 Shut off emission in Region 2 (West Bengal) and Region 3 (North India) Shut-off emission in Region-2 (West Bengal) and Region-3 (North India) Contribution in % CO O3 PM2.5

Estimated Transboundary Contribution Contribution in % Region ‐ 2 Region ‐ 2(West Region ‐ 3 Polluta + Bengal) g ) (North India) ( ) nt Region ‐ 3 R i Avg. Max. Avg. Max. Avg. Max. CO 11 34 10 18 21 53 O3 7 16 8 15 15 31 PM2.5 18 43 19 28 35 67

Conclusions � WRF was able to generate required meteorological inputs for CMAQ model for this region. � CMAQ captured the PM2 5 trends reasonably well � CMAQ captured the PM2.5 trends reasonably well � Concentrations of gaseous pollutant were largely underestimated by CMAQ. These discrepancies were heavily depended on emission input of CMAQ model. � Emission sensitivity of CMAQ was reasonably well which revealed the underestimation of REAS emission in this region by factor of the underestimation of REAS emission in this region by factor of 3 ~5 . � Significant contributions of transboundary transport of pollution g y p p were found inside Bangladesh.